At the outset of the current MLB offseason, outfielder Kyle Tucker was viewed as the biggest fish on the free-agent market and expected to land a contract in the realm of 10 years and $400 million.
And while Tucker remains the biggest free agent who hasn’t signed, it’s become less clear what his market actually is. Naturally, now that we’re almost two months into the offseason and Tucker remains available, fans and analysts are speculating that Tucker won’t end up getting the long-term deal that’s been so widely discussed.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been the only team consistently linked to Tucker in terms of giving him that $400 million-ish deal he’s reportedly seeking.
The New York Yankees have been linked to Tucker as a “backup plan” to Cody Bellinger, but in that scenario, it’s almost impossible to imagine the Yankees giving Tucker a long-term deal, given how frugal they’ve been all offseason.
A new Tucker outcome is starting to come into view: a short-term, high-AAV deal, setting him up to sign a long-term deal next offseason, or sometime soon.
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ESPN’s Paul Hembekides contextualized this scenario very nicely in a conversation with Buster Olney this week, literally spelling out the dollar numbers for two theoretical contract frameworks for Tucker.
Hembekides also asserted that, in light of Tucker’s possible new contract situation, the Houston Astros should absolutely get involved in his market and pursue a reunion.
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“What is the seventh year of a Kyle Tucker contract looking like when he’s swinging the bat slower than, you, nine out of ten guys in Major League Baseball (at that point),” Hembekides said.
“That is a definite concern, it seems, for teams around baseball, which is why Buster, I think the Houston Astros should get back in the fray. … A one-plus-one or a two-plus-two (contract) in a place that he is comfortable, known, and in a ballpark that perfectly matches his air pole, to me, makes all the sense in the world.”
Tucker’s 2025 season with the Chicago Cubs marked a solid transition after his December 2024 trade from the Houston Astros. Appearing in 136 games, he batted .266 with 22 home runs, 73 RBIs, 25 stolen bases, and an .841 OPS, contributing 4.6 WAR. Despite a late-season left calf strain that sidelined him from September 6 to 26, Tucker earned National League All-Star honors, Silver Slugger recognition, and Player of the Week for early April.
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Over his eight-year career, the 28-year-old outfielder has established himself as a consistent force. Drafted fifth overall by the Astros in 2015, he debuted in 2018 and helped secure the 2022 World Series title. Through 769 games, Tucker holds a .273 average, 147 homers, 490 RBIs, 119 steals, and .865 OPS, with four All-Star selections, two Silver Sluggers, and a 2022 Gold Glove. Following the 2025 campaign, he entered free agency on November 2, setting the stage for his next chapter.
