Call them the walking wounded.
The Patriots will be down at least seven starters heading into Sunday’s kickoff against the Jets, a game that could clinch their first division title in six years. The Pats will need a win and a Bills loss to Philadelphia to claim the AFC East this weekend, otherwise it’s on to Week 18. Winning in New York should be easy enough, provided the Pats can stake an early lead against a Brady Cook-led Jets squad.
To do so, Drake Maye will need help from a thinning receiving corps already down Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins. Up front, the Patriots will again be without defensive tackles Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga, absences that should invite the Jets to hammer the run with star running back Breece Hall. That way, they can hypothetically keep the ball out of Cook’s hands and keep Maye off the field.
But will they? Here’s what to watch for Sunday:
When the Patriots run
Step on up, Rhamondre Stevenson.
After playing 81% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps and scoring the game-winning touchdown last Sunday at Baltimore, Stevenson should be involved early and often against the Jets. He missed last month’s meeting with a toe injury, while the Pats were held to 65 yards at a 3.1 yards per carry average. Since returning to health, Stevenson has broken runs of at least 15 yards in each of the past two games.
Whether Stevenson can make it three games in a row could depend on how well the Patriots block linebacker Jamien Sherwood. He ranks among the NFL’s best run-defending linebackers, as a rangy, physical player who’s willing to meet runners head-on in the hole. Erasing Sherwood will primarily fall on center Garrett Bradbury and guards Ben Brown and Mike Onwenu. Brown will replace the injured Jared Wilson at left guard.
When the Patriots pass
The Jets own the league’s worst pass defense by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA, so perhaps the Patriots’ injuries could have come at a worse time. Still, if New York double-teams Stefon Diggs like the Bills did two weeks ago and Baltimore should have last weekend, Maye will need answers elsewhere.
Expect Maye to target his running backs and tight ends on early downs, and throw a few passes to undrafted rookie slot receiver Efton Chism. Mike Vrabel senses Chism — who has only played 25 offensive snaps this season and doesn’t have a catch — will maximize whatever opportunity he sees Sunday.
“He’s always prepared,” Vrabel said. “There are hard workers on this team. I would say none that probably work harder than Efton. I’m not going to say that he’s the hardest worker, but you’d be hard-pressed to find players that work harder than him, to be prepared, to be ready and take advantage of his opportunity, which it looks, by all accounts, that he’ll get opportunities.”
In their last meeting, Maye went 25-of-34 for 281 yards and a touchdown with one sack. The Jets limited him to one deep completion, though he went 8-of-8 on intermediate passes and especially hurt New York over the middle.
When the Jets run
Hall isn’t the same home-run threat he once was, but facing this defense might fix that.
The Patriots — once owners of the league’s best run defense by a hefty margin — are down to 23rd by DVOA. Without Spillane and Tonga for another week, the Pats must fortify the middle of their front with bigger personnel or stacked boxes. The good news is their tackling remains strong which — so long as inside linebackers Jack Gibbens and Christian Elliss wrap up — should prevent some explosive plays.
Then, it’s on new edge defenders like K’Lavon Chaisson, Anfernee Jennings and Elijah Ponder to control the perimeter in Harold Landry’s absence. This week, Vrabel has repeatedly emphasized the importance of regaining control of the line of scrimmage after losing the rushing battle to the Jets last month.
“I really enjoy watching their offensive line. I think it’s a good group, it’s a very young and talented group on the outside. … they really allow the runners, but mostly Breece (Hall), to get going,” Vrabel said. “There’s not a whole lot of first contact, and he’s able to – he averages over 4.2 yards a carry. So, I like that group, they moved us last time. They ran the football against us.
“The recipe for winning is not going to be to run for 65 yards and give up 140 yards on the ground. I’ve told the team that multiple times.”
When the Jets pass
Adonai Mitchell is the only real threat here.
The 6-foot-2, 205-pounder with blazing speed beat Christian Gonzalez on several routes in the first meeting, but finished with just a single catch for 10 yards. Look for the Jets to try and force-feed Mitchell. Star receiver Garrett Wilson and starting tight end Mason Taylor, the Jets’ leading pass-catcher, are both out with injuries.
Even if Cook hits a few throws, the Patriots should expect to catch a few passes themselves. Cook has completed just 59% of his passes for 527 yards, one touchdown and six interceptions this year. He also leads the NFL with a 7.3% turnover-worthy play percentage among passers with at least 100 dropbacks; meaning he’s risked an interception or fumble on one of every 13 or 14 plays.
Cook’s top targets outside of Mitchell include Hall (34 catches, 332 yards) and wide receiver John Metchie (23 catches, 195 yards). Meanwhile, the Patriots’ secondary looks to be fully healthy after missing Carlton Davis (illness) for a stretch in Baltimore and parts of practice this week.
Game pick
Patriots 23, Jets 13
