The New England Patriots can earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed next Sunday, but they’ll need help.
In addition to a win over the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots need the Los Angeles Chargers to take down the top-seed Denver Broncos on the road. L.A. handed Denver one of its three losses earlier this season, but Sunday’s game will be an uphill battle.
On Monday, Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh announced that quarterback Justin Herbert will not start in Denver. Instead, it’ll be Trey Lance under center for a Los Angeles squad that already clinched a playoff spot.
Harbaugh added that other starters “with the most bruises” also will not play in the regular-season finale. Obviously, these developments make the Chargers an even heavier underdog against the 13-3 Broncos and their vaunted defense.
While a first-round bye would be ideal, earning the No. 2 seed wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing for the Patriots.
If the Pats beat the Dolphins, the Broncos defeat the Chargers, and the Buffalo Bills take care of business against the lowly New York Jets, New England will meet No. 7 seed L.A. in the wild-card round. The Chargers are arguably the easiest possible wild-card matchup for the Patriots, and they have just one playoff win since 2013.
The Texans, Jaguars, and Bills are the Patriots’ other potential wild-card opponents. Here’s each possible scenario for New England heading into Week 18:
First-round bye
- Patriots win vs. Dolphins, Chargers win vs. Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers
- Patriots win vs. Dolphins, Broncos win vs. Chargers, Bills win vs. Jets
- Patriots lose vs. Dolphins, Broncos win vs. Chargers, Bills win vs. Jets, Titans win vs. Jaguars, Texans win vs. Colts
Buffalo Bills
- Patriots win vs. Dolphins, Broncos win vs. Chargers, Jets win vs. Bills
- Patriots lose vs. Dolphins, Broncos win vs. Chargers, Bills win vs. Jets, Jaguars win vs. Titans, Texans win vs. Colts
Houston Texans
- Patriots lose vs. Dolphins, Colts win vs. Texans, Broncos win vs. Chargers, Jaguars win vs. Titans, Bills win vs. Jets
- Patriots lose vs. Dolphins, Chargers win vs. Broncos, Bills win vs. Jets, Titans win vs. Jaguars, Colts win vs. Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Patriots lose vs. Dolphins, Chargers win vs. Broncos, Bills win vs. Jets, Titans win vs. Jaguars, Texans win vs. Colts
