Did Matthew Stafford throw away the NFL MVP in Monday night’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons?
The Los Angeles Rams quarterback came into Week 17 as the clear betting favorite to win the award, but his lackluster performance against an inferior opponent has allowed New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye to overtake him as the favorite heading into the final regular season games.
Stafford completed 22 of 38 pass attempts for 269 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions in the Rams’ 27-24 defeat to the Falcons. One of those interceptions was a pick-6.
Stafford could not have picked a worse time to have his worst game of the season. Maye put together one of the best performances, from a statistical perspective, in recent memory on Sunday. He completed 19 of 21 passes for 256 yards with five touchdowns and zero turnovers in a 42-10 victory over the New York Jets. Maye earned a QB rating of 157 and his QBR of 99.8 was tied for the highest ever in a single game since the stat was invented.
Here’s a look at how Maye and Stafford compare among the basic quarterback stats:
- Drake Maye: 71.7 completion percentage, 4,203 yards, 30 touchdowns, eight interceptions
- Matthew Stafford: 65.2 completion percentage, 4,448 yards, 42 touchdowns, eight interceptions
Basic stats don’t tell the whole story, though.
Mobility is a huge aspect of being a good quarterback in the modern NFL, and it’s an area where Maye excels. He has rushed for 409 yards and four additional touchdowns through 16 games. Stafford has minus-two rushing yards this season.
Maye and Stafford never got a chance to go head-to-head in 2025, so one way to compare them is viewing their stats against common opponents. The Patriots and Rams both played the following six opponents: Panthers, Saints, Titans, Buccaneers, Ravens and Falcons.
Here’s a look at Maye and Stafford’s total season stats, followed by their stats against common opponents (swipe right in the post below to see their common opponent stats):
Let’s break down Maye’s stats even further.
Here’s where he ranks by passer rating in certain situations (via @NFL_Researcher on X and NextGen Stats).
The common argument against Maye in the MVP debate is that he played against the league’s easiest schedule. There’s no question that the Patriots faced easier competition than the Rams. The Rams played in a tough NFC West division that includes three teams with 11-plus wins.
But not all teams with 11-plus wins have great defenses. For example, Stafford played nine games against a defense ranked in the bottom half of the league in EPA per play. Maye played 10 times against teams ranked in the bottom half of EPA per play on defense. So it’s not like Maye played against a bunch more awful defenses than Stafford.
A case could be made for both Maye or Stafford winning MVP. They are both great quarterbacks leading legit Super Bowl contenders. But when you look deeper at some of the advanced metrics, in addition to their stats versus common opponents, it’s fair to give Maye a slight edge.
