FOXBORO — The Patriots have done an about-face this postseason when it comes to the levels of aggressiveness their defense has exhibited at the line of scrimmage.
“Just trying to affect the quarterback,” head coach Mike Vrabel said when asked about his team’s increasing affinity for blitz calls. “Trying to figure out how we need to affect the quarterback each week.”
Against the Chargers, the Patriots blitzed Justin Herbert on 19 dropbacks and held up to 2.7 yards per play on those calls. Against the Texans, it was more of the same, blitzing CJ Stroud 18 times and allowing just 3.7 yards per play.
If they want similar results against Jarrett Stidham, they may want to keep these blitz-happy plans rolling. The Broncos have one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the league, allowing Bo Nix to be sacked just 22 times this season. They’re led by left tackle Garrett Bolles, who allowed pressure on just 5.9 percent of pass-block opportunities this season, which was the best mark among left tackles.
But by adding an extra rusher to the picture, the Patriots may be able to generate one-on-one opportunities for Milton Williams, Christian Barmore or K’Lavon Chaisson. They also may be able to confuse Stidham and hinder his ability to diagnose the angles from which the Patriots are bringing pressure.
Whether it’s from the linebacker level or the secondary — corner blitzes could be impactful against Denver’s condensed offensive formations — mixing up the looks on a player who hasn’t made a meaningful throw in two years could pay dividends for Vrabel and defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr.
In Stidham’s 197 career pass attempts, he has a 4.1 interception rate. And when he’s under pressure, he’s completed just 40 percent of his passes, per Sharp Football. That’s a steep drop-off from when he’s been kept clean and completed almost 71 percent of his attempts.
Bother Stidham, force him into mistakes, move on to the Super Bowl.
Let’s get to the other key matchups in this one…
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Drake Maye’s aggressiveness vs. Broncos’ pass-rush
For Maye, the key to Sunday could be striking a balance between being the big-game hunter he’s wired to be and more of a conservative decision-maker.
The Patriots can’t, at this stage of the season, expect Maye to completely change his playing style. He was one of the most aggressive passers in the NFL, as well as one of the most accurate. As a result, they led the NFL in explosive play rate.
But in order to be explosive, Maye also had to hold onto the football for an extended period of time in his first season under Josh McDaniels. He averaged 2.91 seconds from snap to throw, which was 27th in the NFL, as he put together an MVP-caliber season.
When he’s taken more extended dropbacks in the postseason, the results haven’t been nearly as productive. On plays where he’s held the ball for 2.5 seconds or more against the Chargers and Texans, he’s completing 45.8 percent of his passes, he’s thrown two picks and been sacked seven times, leading to three of his six playoff fumbles.
When he’s thrown more quickly? In under 2.5 seconds? He’s been on a roll, connecting on 68.8 percent of his throws with three touchdowns and just three sacks.
The Patriots shouldn’t take away Maye’s deep ball. There will be opportunities for him to strike against a Broncos defense that saw three starting-level quarterbacks since Week 12 — Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence and Green Bay’s Jordan Love — and allowed an average of 30 points per game and 386 yards of offense.
It’s finding a balance between distributing quickly and looking for the haymaker that will yield a winning formula for Maye and his team. That’s what Vrabel seemed to suggest when asked about his expectations for Maye on Sunday.
“Lead our offense, be the conductor and help us handle the environment,” Vrabel said. “Find as many positive plays as you can, take care of the football. Own the operation. Then you’re going to have to make some big-time throws. That’s just kind of how this thing goes.”
Matchup that will surprise you
Marcus Jones vs. Marvin Mims Jr.
There’s not a whole lot of discussion about special teams in matchups of this magnitude, but there should be this week.
The Patriots and Broncos feature two of the best punt returners in the game, with Marcus Jones (17.3) ranking second in the NFL in return average and Marvin Mims (15.6) ranking third.
If the Broncos are going to pull off an upset, they’ll likely need at least one field-flipping return — if not a special-teams touchdown — from Mims, whom Patriots special teams coordinator Jeremy Springer respects a great deal.
“This, to me, is one of the elite traits as a returner is knowing how to set up blocks,” Springer said this week. “He does an elite job of that… He’s a game-wrecker, without a doubt.”
Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Eric Canha-Imagn Images Marcus Jones has returned two punts for TDs this season.
Matchup that will make your Sunday
Patriots’ front seven vs. Broncos’ run game
If the Patriots want to put Jarrett Stidham into obvious passing situations, giving them an opportunity to show him some of their more exotic pressure packages, they’ll have to be successful on early downs. And given the way the Broncos have run the ball of late, that should be within the realm of possibility for them.
Since Week 11, the Broncos are averaging just 3.8 yards per rush with their backs. In that span, they’ve also averaged just 2.5 yards after contact with their running backs, which is fifth-worst in the NFL.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are allowing 2.0 yards per carry to running backs in their two postseason games.
© Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
© Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images The Patriots front seven has created plenty of pressure in the playoffs.
Matchup that could ruin your Sunday
Will Campbell and Jared Wilson vs. Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen
The Broncos have real disruptors on their defensive line.
It starts with Nik Bonitto, who typically aligns on the offensive left, who recorded a 20 percent pressure rate this season. The only other edge rusher to hit that mark in 200 pass-rush snaps or more this season was Packers star Micah Parsons.
Zach Allen on the interior may be just as much of an issue for the New England offensive line. He’s compiled at least 40 quarterback hits each of the last two seasons, making him the only player other than JJ Watt to have multiple seasons with 40 quarterback hits in the NextGen Stats era (2016).
“They’re talented,” Vrabel said this week. “I think they’re both very athletic for their position. Bonitto, his strength is his speed, his length, his ability to bend and corner. Zach Allen’s skill set is a bigger, athletic interior player who has the ability to speed to power, but really where he’s making his hay is kind of making guys miss and sitting down bigger players, and then bursting on an edge. They’re talented, and then the scheme that they put them in makes them tough.”
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s scheme deploys plenty of five-man fronts that can help create one-on-one matchups for their rushers. He’ll also use linebackers “mugged” at the line of scrimmage over the center to help challenge protection schemes and then confuse linemen by either rushing or dropping players unexpectedly into coverage.
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said he can’t ask his players to do the same things over and over against Joseph, including constantly giving someone like Will Campbell help on the outside in obvious passing situations. They’ll want to mix it up, he explained.
But in a game where the Broncos will be desperate to generate turnovers in order to keep their season alive with a backup quarterback running their offense, don’t expect McDaniels to leave Campbell on an island all that often.
