This weekend marks the midway point of the Grapefruit League schedule, and though many of the Red Sox’s top players are away for the World Baseball Classic, we have seen enough to have a good idea of how the team will look on Opening Day in Cincinnati.
So with the picture coming into focus, here is our second crack at projecting the Red Sox’s 26-man roster.
Starting rotation
MLB: Garrett Crochet (L), Ranger Suarez (L), Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, Johan Oviedo
MiLB depth: Connelly Early (L), Payton Tolle (L), Tyler Uberstine, Jake Bennett (L)
15-day IL: Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval (L); 60-day IL: Tanner Houck
Garrett Crochet has been announced as the Opening Day starter, and barring any unexpected developments, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello will fill in spots 2-4 behind him. That leaves just the No. 5 starter job up for grabs, and while the competition has been well fought, Johan Oviedo appears to have the edge.
Oviedo has been excellent in each of his last two outings after a somewhat erratic spring debut, most recently striking out four over 3 1/3 scoreless innings in Saturday’s win over the Rays. He’s done a much better job throwing strikes and avoiding walks, which is a great sign given his past command problems.
Connelly Early has been great too, and Payton Tolle’s last outing on Wednesday was outstanding, but the two rookies will probably start the season in Triple-A to ensure they continue to get stretched out as starters and to further develop their arsenals. It’s highly unlikely either would be considered for a bullpen role, at least not to start the season.
As for Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, both pitchers are trending toward returning to game action but are still well behind the other three starter candidates in their progressions. Considering Crawford and Sandoval each missed all of last season due to injury, the club will most likely place both on the IL to start the season so they can complete their ramp ups at an appropriate pace. Then once they’re ready at some point in April the club can figure out how they best fit into the mix.
Bullpen
MLB: Aroldis Chapman (L), Garrett Whitlock, Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly, Jovani Moran (L), Ryan Watson, Kyle Keller
MiLB: Tyler Samaniego (L)
The Red Sox only have eight true relievers on their 40-man roster, but the front of the bullpen looks excellent. Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock are as good a late-inning one-two punch as you’ll find on any team, and Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert and Zack Kelly are all solid options in the sixth and seventh innings.
A lot will be riding on Jovani Moran as the club’s only established left-handed reliever, but he’s had a good camp and has consistently drawn rave reviews from Red Sox officials throughout the offseason.
That leaves Ryan Watson and Tyler Samaniego, neither of whom have ever pitched in the majors. Watson is a Rule 5 pick, so he can’t be optioned to the minors without being made available to other clubs. He hasn’t performed well this spring, but with such little depth behind him my guess is the Red Sox will bring him along on the Opening Day roster anyway.
Samaniego only recently returned to the mound after dealing with a back issue, but seeing as that he can be optioned, I imagine he’ll start in Worcester.
That leaves one spot, and if the Red Sox don’t make any more external additions then it could go to one of the club’s non-roster invitees. Kyle Keller, Tayron Guerrero and Noah Song have been the most impressive of that group, and right now Keller would seem to have the best chance.
Catcher
MLB: Carlos Narvaez, Connor Wong
MiLB depth: Mickey Gasper, Matt Thaiss, Jason Delay, Nate Baez, Nathan Hickey, Ronald Rosario
No changes here. Carlos Narvaez has already been named Boston’s starting catcher and there’s no reason to believe Connor Wong won’t be his primary backup.
Mickey Gasper is third on the depth chart but could factor in at other positions as well, and everybody else will function as organizational depth once the season gets underway.
Infielders
MLB: Willson Contreras (1B), Marcelo Mayer (2B), Trevor Story (SS), Caleb Durbin (3B), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Util.), Nate Eaton (Util.)
MiLB depth: Andruw Monasterio, Nick Sogard, Mikey Romero, Gasper
15-day IL: Romy Gonzalez, Triston Casas, Anthony Seigler; MiLB IL: Brendan Rodgers
DFA’d: Tsung-Che Cheng
This group has seen a considerable shakeup since our first roster projection, which was published days before Craig Breslow acquired Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler from the Brewers in exchange for Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan and David Hamilton.
That move brought clarity to what was previously an incomplete infield picture, but there are still some questions to be answered.
As far as the starting group goes, Willson Contreras is locked into first base and Trevor Story will be the shortstop, and while Alex Cora hasn’t announced whether they’ll play second or third, Caleb Durbin and Marcelo Mayer should round out the infield. Let’s put Durbin at third and Mayer at second base for now since Durbin has more big league experience at the hot corner, but it probably won’t make a huge difference either way.
The bigger competition right now is for the bench jobs, though that picture is coming into focus, too.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa appears to have the inside track for the primarily utility job. He’s the veteran of the group and can play solid defense at every infield position. That includes first base, the only spot he’s never played in a big league game but a position he seems to have quickly taken to in spring action. With both Triston Casas and Romy Gonzalez expected to open the season on the IL, Kiner-Falefa’s ability to serve as the backup first baseman will be especially helpful.
The other spot remains Nate Eaton’s to lose. Throughout the offseason, Red Sox officials repeatedly identified Eaton as someone who could potentially fill Rob Refsnyder’s old reserve role, and with the left-handed hitting Masataka Yoshida expected to frequently come off the bench, the club will need a righty hitter who can play outfield as well.
Monasterio and Nick Sogard remain in the mix but right now look ticketed for Triple-A. Seigler has spent most of camp sidelined with a nagging knee injury that could land him on the IL, and Tsung-Che Cheng could be a roster casualty if the Red Sox need to add another reliever to the 40-man.
Outfielders
MLB: Roman Anthony (LF), Ceddanne Rafaela (CF), Wilyer Abreu (RF), Jarren Duran (OF), Masataka Yoshida (DH)
MiLB depth: Kristian Campbell, Braiden Ward, Allan Castro
There isn’t too much drama here.
Barring any late moves, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida are all going to be on the big league roster. Rafaela and Abreu should get everyday playing time in center and right field, respectively, while Anthony and Duran will rotate between left field and designated hitter. And Yoshida? He’ll probably get some games at DH, but otherwise there’s a chance he could be consigned to bench duty.
Either way, it’ll be up to Alex Cora to figure out how to make this puzzle fit together.
Given that the entire outfield group is currently away at the World Baseball Classic, the club’s other outfield candidates are getting plenty of opportunities to show off what they can do. Kristian Campbell and Braiden Ward are probably going to wind up getting squeezed out of the Opening Day roster picture, but they should factor into the equation at some point in the coming months.
