Many experts thought the Boston Celtics would be a play-in tournament team (or worse) in the Eastern Conference this season after Jayson Tatum injured his Achilles last May.
Not only have the C’s far exceeded those expectations, they actually have a chance to finish the regular season as the No. 1 team in the East.
The Detroit Pistons have been the top seed in the conference nearly the entire year, but the shocking news Thursday that superstar point guard Cade Cunningham is expected to miss multiple weeks with a collapsed lung has made the race for the No. 1 spot much more interesting with about a month left in the regular season.
Updated East standings
The Celtics have a 46-23 record after dominating the Golden State Warriors at TD Garden on Wednesday night, and they sit just 3.5 games behind the Pistons as a result.
Should Celtics make a push for the No. 1 seed?
With Tatum back in the lineup and playing very well, should the Celtics make a strong effort to catch the Pistons after Cunningham’s injury?
The short answer is yes, and there are a couple compelling reasons why.
The first one is obvious. The top seed gets homecourt advantage throughout the East playoffs. The Celtics’ 24 home wins are the second-most in the conference. TD Garden and the raucous Boston fans are a real advantage for the Celtics.
Home teams have a 115-40 record all-time in Game 7s (74.2 win percentage). The C’s have won four of their last six Game 7s in Boston, and they have a 13-4 home playoff record over the last two seasons.
Another reason to chase for the No. 1 seed is it would guarantee the Celtics avoid the New York Knicks until the Eastern Conference Finals. If the C’s were the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, they’d likely play the Knicks in the second round.
With all due respect to the Pistons, the Knicks are probably the toughest competitor for the Celtics in the East. New York has a strong roster with an elite late-game scorer in Jalen Brunson, a top-tier center in Karl Anthony-Towns and plenty of wing players who are excellent defensively — Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, etc. — to throw at Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
The Knicks rank 10th in points per game, fourth in 3-point percentage, fifth in rebounds per game, third in offensive rating, sixth in defensive rating and fifth in net rating. They are a well-balanced team. New York also isn’t afraid of the C’s and would be confident in a playoff rematch after eliminating Boston in six games in last season’s conference semifinals.
The Celtics, especially with Tatum now healthy, can absolutely beat the Knicks in a seven-game series and probably would be favored to do so. But if you can avoid your toughest opponent until the conference finals, that’s ideal. And who knows, maybe the Knicks would get knocked out early by the Pistons. Detroit went 3-0 versus New York this season.
David Butler II-Imagn Images
David Butler II-Imagn Images The Knicks are a tough matchup for the Celtics.
How can the Celtics clinch the top seed?
The Celtics have 13 games left and the Pistons have 14. Boston has the seventh-toughest schedule over the rest of the regular season, per Tankathon, with its remaining opponents having a combined .535 win percentage. Detroit has the 15th-toughest schedule with its final opponents having a .505 combined win percentage.
It should be noted that the Celtics need to finish ahead of the Pistons in the final standings to secure the No. 1 seed because Detroit has the tiebreaker after winning three of the four head-to-head matchups this season.
Erasing a 3.5-game deficit in 13 games won’t be easy for the Celtics, but it’s doable, especially with the Pistons losing their best player, leading scorer and best passer in Cunningham. Here are a few record scenarios where Boston would overtake Detroit in the standings:
- If Pistons go 8-6, Celtics must go 12-1
- If Pistons go 7-7, Celtics must go 11-2
- If Pistons go 6-8, Celtics must go 10-3
- If Pistons go 5-9, Celtics must go 9-4
- If Pistons go 4-10, Celtics must go 8-5
Earning the No. 1 seed would be an incredible accomplishment for the Celtics in what was supposed to be a “gap year” due to Tatum’s injury. But now that Tatum has made an almost seamless return to the lineup and the Pistons are now vulnerable, the Celtics must take advantage of this opportunity to potentially grab the top seed and all the benefits it provides.
