The Boston Bruins’ chances of securing a very valuable lottery pick in the 2026 NHL Draft courtesy of the Toronto Maple Leafs have risen this week, both from on- and off-the-ice developments.
On the ice, the Leafs keep winning (3-1 in last four games), which is bad news for Toronto because losing would improve the team’s chances of keeping its 2026 first-round pick.
That pick, which the B’s acquired as part of the Brandon Carlo trade just before the 2025 trade deadline, is top-five protected in 2026.
Entering Thursday, the Leafs have the seventh-worst record based on points percentage, which puts them in real danger of giving that 2026 pick to the B’s.
Of course, finishing outside one of the five-worst records does not guarantee this pick conveys to Boston this year. Toronto could still win the NHL Draft Lottery in May, or jump up to the No. 2 pick. But the chances of that scenario unfolding are not in the Leafs’ favor.
If the Leafs finish the regular season with the seventh-worst record, they’d have the following odds (via Tankathon) at landing a top-five pick and keeping it in 2026.
- No. 1 overall: 6.5 percent
- No. 2: 6.7 percent
- No. 3: 0.2 percent
- No. 4 and No. 5: N/A
- Outside top five: 86.5 percent
Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images The Maple Leafs could give their third top-10 pick to the Bruins since 2009.
Off the ice, the Maple Leafs have made it clear they don’t intend to lose games on purpose.
Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment CEO Keith Pelley spoke to the media Tuesday to address the recent firing of Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving and the future of the franchise. He was asked about the Leafs losing games on purpose (tanking, essentially) to ensure they finish bottom five and improve their odds of keeping the 2026 first-round pick.
He didn’t like the question.
“We won’t do that,” Pelley said, per TSN. “That’s not what I believe sport is all about. And everyone that knows me, I have a fierce opinion on that. In my opinion, that changes the integrity of sport and changes the integrity of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
“We will not do anything to try to get that (first round pick). And if fans are angry with that, then I respect that, but we will not tank.”
He later added: “We will try to win every single game.”
That’s a great development for the Bruins. Getting a top-10 pick in what is projected to be a strong draft would be a huge building block for the short- and long-term success of the team.
The Leafs could still fall further in the standings. They’re a bad team right now, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Toronto lost most of its seven remaining games.
But as of Thursday morning, it’s looking good for the Bruins. The Maple Leafs could get lucky in the lottery, but of all teams, Toronto is probably the least likely to pull a rabbit out of a hat.
