Patrick Sandoval’s rehab assignment has expired and the Red Sox need to make a decision. On Saturday, he fired five shutout innings for the Portland Sea Dogs. With no options remaining, the team needs to either add him to the active roster, designate him for assignment, or work out a trade.
I was under the impression that his rehab assignment ended on Saturday, but no transaction has been made yet, so there’s clearly some wiggle room there. Jake Bennett was the most likely candidate to be removed from the rotation given his roster flexibility, but his performance has earned him a turn every five days at the major league level. With Ranger Suarez and Connelly Early each sidelined with injuries, Sandoval seems likely to return to the majors this week for the first time in over two years. In eight minor-league rehab appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, Sandoval registered a 3.24 ERA, 21.6% strikeout rate, and 12.7% walk rate. He averaged about three innings per start, but was stretched out to five innings in his final appearance. Is he an arm the Red Sox can trust while the other pitchers recover from injury? Let’s find out.
From 2021 to 2023, Sandoval was solid. Over that span, he started 69 games and posted a 3.53 ERA over 380 1/3 innings. His ERA was 35th of 104 qualifiers, though his K-BB% was 81st in that group. At his best (we’ll use 2022), he used sinkers on the arm side to lefties to jam them with great effect, and sliders down and away to strike them out. Against righties, he used a four-seam with a terrible shape, his sinker, slider, and a devastating changeup. The four-seam found the middle of the plate too often, and at 93 mph with no outlier traits, was hammered. The slider returned strikes at a high clip, the sinker avoided hard contact, but the changeup was the highlight. The pitch was among the best in baseball with a 42% chase rate and 24.5% swinging strike rate. It helped strike out about 24% of the righties he faced, though the lack of consistent strikes with his fastball led to a double-digit walk rate. His performance fell off some in 2023, and even further in 2024, though injuries were at least partially to blame.
Beggars can’t be choosers, and the Red Sox don’t have many options at this point. While it’s not fair to expect Sandoval to post a sub-three ERA, he might be able to keep the Red Sox in games, five or six innings at a time. Looking at his rehab numbers, there are some things to like.
Note: Two of his eight starts were in Double-A, so there’s no Statcast data available. While it probably won’t make too much of a difference, it”s worth noting my data isn’t fully complete.
The first, and most obvious place to check for signs of decline, is velocity. The lefty’s fastballs are each down about half a mile per hour. His breaking pitches are all in line, except for his curveball, but that appears to be by design. More on that in a minute. For someone who hasn’t appeared in major league action in over two years, I’d say that’s about all you can ask for, and isn’t cause for concern. Moving on.
In looking at rehab appearances, I’m not looking at the results as much as I am the process and the stuff. Here’s a look at his pitch shapes from 2022 compared to now.
I should start by saying his release point and arm angle appears to be relatively unaltered. None of the changes in movement we’re looking at are a result of him drastically dropping down and suddenly throwing sidearm, causing everything to move more East-West or anything like that. We’ll start with the pitch I’m most interested in, his slider. It has the biggest change in movement since 2022. The horizontal movement is about the same, but it’s showing about four more inches of lift compared to the 2022 version while holding the same velocity. To me, the current version looks more like a cutter than a slider.
Is that a good thing? I’m not sure. As I mentioned, the pitch was incredibly effective against lefties. With less drop, it might have hard time missing bats. At the same time, he’s introduced a sweeper, and the curveball is showing more gloveside movement. Either pitch could be an option to induce left-handed whiffs, though his arsenal on rehab consisted of 85% sinkers and sliders.
Against righties, he primarily used his slider down and in. It was effective in 2022, but fell off in the following years. This new shape, more closely resembling a cutter, will likely be used up and in to jam righties, a la Ranger Suarez. It remains to be seen if he can execute the pitch, and the 87 mph velocity means he’ll have to spot it well or else it will be in danger of getting hit hard. If he spots it well, it should provide an additional source of strikes, limiting his walk rate. The Red Sox history of giving pitchers cutters has been less than stellar, though, so I’m not confident this offering is going to work.
The other major difference is in his changeup. It’s lost three inches of drop, while the velocity remains the same. Given that it’s such a high-volume two strike offering, I’d like to see more separation from his fastball. His sinker is also showing more vertical movement, so the gap still exists, but as a general rule I’d prefer to see more depth. At it’s best, the pitch was excellent and a huge source of strikeouts. If he loses that weapon, his outings will likely be short and full of traffic. The pitch returned a 20% swinging strike rate against righties in the minors, but the competition is obviously not as tough. If it’s still effective, the ceiling is there. If it’s not, his time in the majors likely won’t be long.
His curveball is interesting, though it’s always been a fringe offering. The newer version is slower and comes with more sweep. I also mentioned the sweeper, but at 78 mph it’s likely not going to be the most effective. Still, if he can find another quality breaking ball, it will give him more options as he navigates a lineup multiple times.
Of course, command is important. If he spots the ball well, my the concerns about his pitch shapes will be somewhat alleviated. Eight rehab outings is a decent tuneup, but his feel will likely be refined as he continues to pitch. Again, two years off is a very long time. My expectations for Sandoval aren’t high, but he was once a very successful pitcher, and there’s always a chance he bounces back.
