I have no way of proving this, but I’m fairly confident in writing it nonetheless: Marcelo Mayer is the only true prospect* in Red Sox history who was widely known throughout the fanbase as soon as he entered the organization. For that reason alone he will always be an important figure in Red Sox history.
(*You don’t count as a true prospect, Daisuke.)
It was a perfect storm of factors that led to Mayer becoming hyped beyond any Red Sox prospect before or since. First, he was the highest Red Sox pick in decades and the club’s second-highest pick ever. This is a good thing — you don’t want your team to be picking fourth because it means your team is bad. But it was kind of fun and exciting for Red Sox fans to be truly invested in the top end of the draft for once.
Second, Mayer’s draft was one of the more star-studded drafts in recent memory. No matter how hard Rob Manfred tries, the MLB draft will never be the big time event that the NFL or NBA drafts are, not only because most draftees are years away from the big leagues, but also because college and high school baseball players just aren’t big names like their football and basketball equivalents are. But the 2021 draft was something of an exception to that, as Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker had somewhat broken through the cultural containment shield and become genuine college stars.
Third, Mayer was not only the highest Red Sox draft pick in years at number four, but he was also, according to many, the actual best talent in the entire draft. It wasn’t hard to convince yourself that he was a number one pick who fell to the Sox for reasons that had nothing to do with his talent.
And fourth — and this is the most important one — Mayer was drafted after the prospect media industrial complex reached full maturity. For most of baseball history, prospects were things only the true sickos paid any attention to. But a whole host of factors that really started to build up around the turn of the century — the development of the internet and the insatiable need for content, successive CBAs designed to curb free agent spending, a relative rise in the popularity of college baseball, Moneyball and the creation of the cult of the GM — all conspired to put more and more attention on the minor leagues every year. Prospects were once no more than extras in the baseball story. By the time Mayer was drafted, they were stars in their own right.
From the moment Mayer was drafted, there was little debate amongst Red Sox fans as to what his fate was: he was going to be a star. He was going to be the foundation of the the post-Mookie rebuild that led the Red Sox back to the promised land. And the organization seemed to largely agree. Successive front offices clearly took a wait-and-see approach with the big league team while waiting for Mayer et al to matriculate through the minors, while the business end of the operation hyped up the “Big Three” of Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel relentlessly.
Well, it’s been five years now since that 2021 draft and Marcelo Mayer has yet to positively contribute to the Red Sox. And, today, he’s no longer with the team at all; he’s been traded to the San Fransisco Giants for lefty middle reliever Erik Miller.
Erik Miller is a fine reliever. He’s got 45 strikeouts in 32.2 innings pitched. He’s a hard-thrower who makes hitters very uncomfortable in the box. He’s going to help the 2026 Red Sox. But, still, he’s a middle reliever, and one who walks way too many hitters. This is the return for Marcelo Mayer, the once and future savior of the Boston Red Sox?
It’s shocking how far Mayer has fallen in the eyes of his own organization and, judging by this return, in the eyes of the whole league. He’s still the same buttery smooth fielder he was when he was drafted. He still has the same sweet swing. But his minor league numbers never quite lived up to his pre-draft pedigree, he’s struggled with injuries, and he’s looked lost at the plate in the majors. Moreover, he’s never seemed to have the full support of the big league coaching staff, who, for reasons that were never made clear, took exception with the way he handled himself in Boston.
It’s still far too early to call him a bust. Would I be surprised if he turns himself into an everyday shortstop and makes an All-Star case at some point in his career? Yes, but I probably wouldn’t be shocked — he remains a gifted ballplayer. Nevertheless, the Mayer story should serve as a cautionary tale to the Red Sox and all of baseball. Hyping up prospects is easy; but baseball is hard. Maybe we should wait until the next overhyped prospects are actually on the Red Sox before anointing them as the franchise saviors.
