The Boston Red Sox are still sitting comfortably in the second Wild Card spot, but there are several issues they must resolve before they start thinking about playoff baseball.
Boston is a mediocre 11-11 over its last 22 games. While that’s been good enough to sustain its playoff position, its play hasn’t exactly inspired optimism for a deep postseason run.
Most of the Red Sox’ problems can be linked to their underperforming lineup. Key hitters like Roman Anthony, Willson Contreras, Adley Rutschman and Wilyer Abreu have been concerningly inconsistent.
A deeper dive into the numbers suggests the struggling Sox will have their work cut out for them in their presumed Wild Card Series rematch at Yankee Stadium. Here are the club’s five biggest areas of concern with 10 games remaining:
Roman Anthony is ice-cold
The Red Sox need Roman Anthony to be one of their best offensive players to have any chance of a deep postseason run. If the former No. 1 prospect continues to play the way he has for most of September, that will be problematic.
Anthony is hitting just .149 (7-for-47) with one home run and a .428 OPS over his last 11 games. He has struck out 18 times in 51 plate appearances.
The 22-year-old’s struggles beg the question: should he still be the leadoff hitter in the postseason? Interim manager Chad Tracy will have no choice but to reevaluate Anthony’s spot in the lineup if his woes continue. The problem with that is there aren’t any exciting alternatives. The leadoff spot has been a glaring issue all season long, regardless of who has been thrust into the role.
Struggling against high velocity
The Red Sox offense has been inconsistent no matter who’s on the mound, but it has mostly struggled against pitchers with high velo. Here’s how some of Boston’s regulars have fared this season against pitches greater than or equal to 97 mph:
- Wilyer Abreu: .170 BA, .623 OPS (237 pitches)
- Jarren Duran: .065 BA, .300 OPS (203 pitches)
- Willson Contreras: .170 BA, .512 OPS (166 pitches)
- Ceddanne Rafaela: .205 BA, .449 OPS (157 pitches)
- Roman Anthony: .091 BA, .440 OPS (58 pitches)
- Adley Rutschman: .077 BA, .451 OPS (57 pitches)
The Red Sox’ top performer against high velocity (97 mph and above) has been Caleb Durbin (.364 BA, .912 OPS, 161 pitches).
Being so vulnerable against high velocity will especially be a problem for Boston in its expected Wild Card Series matchup against the New York Yankees. Cy Young frontrunner and likely Game 1 starter Cam Schlittler averages 98 mph with his four-seam fastball, which he uses 44.5 percent of the time. Gerrit Cole averages 96.9 mph with his four-seam, using it 49.3 percent of the time.
Leaving runners stranded
Boston has been below average all season at capitalizing on runners in scoring position. It currently ranks 17th in batting average (.250) and 21st in OPS (.731) with RISP. They’re hitting just .212 in such situations through 14 games so far in September.
The Yankees’ elite pitching staff probably won’t provide the Red Sox with many scoring opportunities in their short series, so it’s imperative that they come through when given the chance. Lately, Boston hasn’t had anyone in its lineup to feel confident about when they step to the plate with runners on.
Role players regressing
As great as guys like Willson Contreras, Caleb Durbin, and Wilyer Abreu were throughout the Red Sox’ incredible midseason turnaround, it was the role players who powered their surge. Mickey Gasper, Jahmai Jones, Nick Sogard, Anthony Seigler, and Andruw Monasterio were instrumental in resurrecting Boston’s season.
Gasper has cooled off, though no one expected him to sustain his Barry Bonds-like run. Jahmai Jones is 4 for his last 22 (.182) with nine strikeouts, suddenly making him a playoff roster cut candidate. Sogard is still hitting, but his .758 OPS so far in September suggests regression to the mean. Seigler is hurt. Monasterio posted a .578 OPS in August and is 0-for-11 so far in September, putting him on the playoff roster bubble.
That group deserves immense credit for getting the Red Sox here, but it cannot be counted on to propel the club through the postseason.
Erik Miller experiencing command issues
Boston’s bullpen is arguably its biggest strength heading into the postseason. The back end with Garrett Whitlock, Tyron Guerrero, and Aroldis Chapman is elite.
We would’ve included trade deadline addition Erik Miller in that group last month, when he allowed only one earned run with 20 strikeouts and just three walks across his first 11 appearances with the Red Sox. His performance so far this month, however, has been alarming.
Miller, acquired from the San Francisco Giants in the Marcelo Mayer trade, has allowed four earned runs with six walks and six strikeouts through five appearances (4.1 IP) in September. His command struggles were a question mark upon his joining the club, and it appears that issue has reemerged with less than two weeks until the playoffs.
After Wednesday’s poor outing against the Texas Rangers (2 H, 3 ER, 1 BB), Miller attributed his recent struggles to his mechanics. The Red Sox will hope that whatever the problem is, it’s a quick fix, because Miller will be counted on to be their most reliable left-handed reliever not named Aroldis Chapman.
