The New England Patriots snapped out of their early-season funk with back-to-back impressive wins over the Buffalo Bills and Las Vegas Raiders. Will they stay hot this Sunday against the New York Jets?
If Drake Maye plays how he has over the last two weeks, the Jets won’t stand much of a chance. The third-year quarterback is back to looking like his MVP-caliber self. He was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week after a 269-yard, three-TD performance vs. Buffalo, and should’ve earned the honor again after his 374-yard, five-TD gem against Vegas.
The Patriots have dominated the Jets for the last two-and-a-half decades, but don’t underestimate New York heading into this Week 6 matchup. Its pass defense has been among the NFL’s best so far this season, so it won’t be easy for Maye to keep his torrid stretch going, even if star wide receiver A.J. Brown is back in the mix. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may have to lean more on the run game, which would mean a heavy workload for Rhamondre Stevenson with TreVeyon Henderson likely out with an ankle injury.
As of Thursday, New England is a 7.5-point favorite to win Sunday’s game at Gillette Stadium. What are the keys to matching those expectations?
Here’s our Pats-Jets Week 6 preview and prediction:
Recent head-to-head matchups
The Patriots beating up on the Jets is a tradition like no other. They’ve won 40 of their last 50 regular-season games against their storied AFC East rival since December 2001. They’ve lost to New York only twice in the last decade.
Last season, the Patriots took care of business with a 13-point win at home before blowing the Jets out at MetLife Stadium. Here are the last three Patriots-Jets matchups:
- Week 11, 2025 at New England: 27-14 Patriots
- Week 17, 2025 at New York: 42-10 Patriots
- Week 8, 2024 at New England: 25-22 Patriots
Key Stats
David Bailey is a game-wrecker
Jets edge rusher David Bailey could be a problem for the Patriots on Sunday.
Bailey has five sacks through the first five weeks of his NFL career, including three in New York’s 17-12 win over Cleveland last week. The No. 2 overall draft pick also racked up three tackles for loss and four total QB hits to earn the AFC Defensive Player of the Week honor.
According to the NFL, Bailey became the first rookie since Jean Phillips with at least three sacks and three TFLs in the same game.
David Bailey was a man on a mission in Week 5 🔥 @Pepsi https://t.co/DKOYWjlsLg
— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2026
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel is well-aware of the challenge Bailey presents.
“He’s fast, explosive, instinctive,” Vrabel said of Bailey on Wednesday. “He can bend, got a really good get off and is able to win at the top and corner. He uses his get off, so just like every week, we’ll have to be very conscious of the front.”
Feed Rhamondre?
The Jets have had one of the stingiest pass defenses this season, limiting opponents to an average of 175 passing yards per game (fourth-fewest in NFL). They could make it tough for Maye to push the ball downfield, giving McDaniels no choice but to lean on his running backs.
That means we should expect a hefty workload for Rhamondre Stevenson. The Pats’ RB2, TreVeyon Henderson, will miss time after suffering a high-ankle sprain last week. Stevenson and Corey Kiner are the only RBs currently on the active roster, though Lan Larison and Hassan Haskins are candidates to be elevated from the practice squad.
While the Jets aren’t terrible against the run, they’re beatable. They rank 13th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (118).
Patriots’ key to victory
Protect Drake Maye
The Jets are tied for third in the NFL with 17 sacks this season. As mentioned above, rookie edge rusher David Bailey leads the group with five sacks, three coming last week vs. Cleveland.
The Patriots offensive line will be tested against this menacing Jets front, especially if left tackle Will Campbell is out due to the knee injury he suffered last week.
“I think they’re physical. I think they have tenacity. I think they’ve got, I wouldn’t say a new ferociousness, but you can see the difference on tape from last year,” Maye said of the Jets defense on Wednesday. “They have some new faces, some new mentality. I think they’re buying into how Coach [Aaron] Glenn wants to play defense, and I think you respect that.
“You can see that on film. It pops out to you. They do a good job on the back end, mixing it up and also getting on you and grabbing you and playing physical. So, you can see that they’re building something on defense, and it’s really shown this year with how they played.
Maye struggled mightily over the first three weeks of the season. Uncoincidentally, he was pressured often and sacked nine times in that span.
Over his last two stellar games, Maye has only been sacked twice.
Tom Curran and Phil Perry react to Drake Maye’s performance vs. the Raiders and break down why it’s a great sign for the offense going forward.
Jets’ key to victory
Win the turnover battle
The only way we see the Patriots losing to the Jets at home this week is if they fail to protect the football. That’s how they earned both of their losses this season, with Maye tossing three interceptions in the season opener vs. Seattle and turning it over four times in Week 3 against Jacksonville.
Fortunately for Maye and the Pats, the Jets don’t pick anyone off. They went a record 21 games without an interception before safety Minkah Fitzpatrick finally snapped the streak in Week 4. That was New York’s only INT so far this year.
Fumbles are a different story. The Jets are tied for second in the NFL with five fumble recoveries this season. Maye has fumbled five times, Stevenson lost a fumble in Week 2, and Kiner coughed it up in last week’s win.
The Patriots must avoid giving the Jets extra possessions. If they do that, they should win this game pretty handily.
Prediction
Over the last two weeks, the Pats have resembled the 2025 team that finished 14-3 and represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. If they’re even 75 percent as good as they were against Buffalo and Las Vegas, they should breeze past New York at home.
That said, the Jets defense is capable of keeping this one close, especially if key Pats players are sidelined due to injuries. Running back TreVeyon Henderson and left tackle Will Campbell are expected to be out, and it remains to be seen whether star wideout A.J. Brown is ready to return from injured reserve.
This could be a tougher matchup than many anticipate. But even if the Patriots are forced to embrace the “next man up” mentality yet again, a decent performance from Maye should be enough to propel them to 4-2.
Score: 24-10 Patriots
