Note: this column assumes there will be a 2027 MLB season. Please disregard in advance should it not come to pass. Thank you.
I was more than a little surprised at how negative the Over the Monster staff was in our recent assessment of 2026. “No, it was not a success. Of course it wasn’t,” wrote Fitzy. “HELL NO!!!” wrote Matthew Gross. Maura McGurk was more terse, but same deal. Only Mike Carlucci and I thought otherwise. To each their own, of course, but over at DraftKings, the Red Sox have the 4th best odds for 2027, at +1100. So what gives? What’s the disconnect between what the world thinks of us and what we think of ourselves?
Several reasons spring to mind. The first 18 are the runs the Yankees scored against the Sox in the two-game walkover disguised as a playoff series, which left a bitter aftertaste to an otherwise exciting year. That’s understandable. The 19th reason is that the Red Sox likely get slightly inflated odds because of their large fanbase, which is why the Mets come in at +2200, same as the Rays. But that wouldn’t explain why the Mariners, of all teams, are in between them at +1800, tied with the Phillies. The 20th and final reason, tho is ye old Occam’s Razor: the Red Sox have good odds to win the title because they are a good team.
For all the hay that’s been made and will continue to be about the Dodgers supposedly “ruining” baseball, they obviously have done no such thing and it’s embarrassing to claim they have. They won back-to-back World Series titles, yes, but the second was by the absolute skin of their teeth, and this year they were swept to hell by the eventual World Series champion Brewers — who, like their Tampa Bay counterpart, built a team that got better and better and better as the years went by before walking to the title.
In the absence of a superteam (a concept that really doesn’t even apply in the playoffs), this is usually how it happens. Time will tell if the Red Sox will reach the mountaintop, but right now they’re on the right trail. While you’d be right to expect some pitching regression and wrong to expect them to win 120 games in July, the offense could easily stand to take a few steps forward at a time where only a few steps forward are needed. Craig Breslow hasn’t been shy about adding important pieces or shedding prospects who would have been needlessly considered sacrosanct under the previous administration. It’s a long season, but the offseason ain’t that short either.
The real question hanging over the winter is whether or not the hot stove really gets going, given the labor issues in play. Either way, I think the Sox are in a good spot. If it doesn’t heat up, their natural progression tends toward a 90-win season more than an 80-win one. If it does get cooking, the Sox are in a great position to make moves, with a still stacked-enough farm system to get deals done with any of the many teams happy to operate as high-value concessionaires rather than functioning baseball teams.
Buck up, friends. We may have been pounded into oblivion by the Yankees, but that was pretty much the end of their season as well. If that’s what got them to bring back Aaron Boone again, you could even argue it was worth our sacrifice. Either way, here’s hoping, and truly believing, that we won’t have to run the same calculus a third year running. And as the oddsmakers show, you don’t have to take my word for it.
