I have the sense that this will be a wildly (or perhaps mildly?) unpopular take, but I like the Jake Bauers deal.
I was surprised to hear it happened but that may have had more to do with seeing any extensive activity right now, given the unknowns of the impending lockout. It may also have been disbelief at seeing the Red Sox make a quick move; we all know how they like to watch and wait during the offseason.
Let’s look at the objections to the signing and take them on, one by one.
Bauers only had one good year
Until recently, he had a pretty unimpressive stat sheet: playing for five teams in eight years, never hitting higher than .235 in any season, or hitting more than 12 home runs, or batting in more than 48 runs prior to 2026. His strikeout rate, always elevated, nearly reached 35% in 2023 and 2024. In fact, he planned to retire, only coming back to the sport due to the need for health insurance.
He started turning things around with a strong September in 2025. His career year, the outlier, was 2026, when his slash line was .266/.389/.484 with 26 home runs and he was named the MVP of the NLCS. He was a big contributor to the Brewers winning the World Series.
So was 2026 a fluke? Time will tell but we can say, despite his struggles, that he has some solid underlying metrics.
- He’s always been disciplined at the plate, with a career walk rate of 12.64%
- He wasn’t just lucky in 2026—his Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) of .371 is in the 93rd percentile and backs up his production (.389 OBP / .873 OPS)
- Since 2023, he’s had an excellent barrel rate, that beautiful combination of exit velocity and launch angle
The Sox already have a first baseman
They have a first baseman, Willson Contreras, who could use a backup. The Sox have essentially had a fragile ecosystem at first base for several years now. Don’t get me started on poor Triston Casas.
The Sox already have a DH
Well, he was acquired to be the designated hitter, so his fielding doesn’t bother me too much. He’ll serve as a backup to Contreras at first.
He does play multiple positions (not necessarily well) but that works with the overall philosophy of having players who can slot in and give guys time off, or be available in case of injury.
What about Triston Casas?
God bless him. I love the guy, I’ve written about him many times, and he’ll probably always be The One Who Got Away for me. I wish it had turned out differently. I loved him as a player and an individual but we can’t count on him at this point because of his health. Breslow said he’s “optimistic” Casas will play winter ball in the Dominican Republic but there’s no date for that since he’s still not healthy enough. Breslow did the right thing by not taking him into account as an option for first base, at least for now. We’ll see what happens with him (and I wish him all the best).
Bauer’s age, or the contract’s age…something won’t age well
Can we give up on this argument, please? The very financial structure of the sport is predicated on a time-based model; young players are typically cheaper players, and as players bank more time in their career, the more they can expect to earn (up to a certain point in time). Once players arrive at the point in their career when they can truly cash in on this system with a lucrative multiyear contract, they are typically “in their prime.” That implies they are at or near their peak. Logically, no peak lasts indefinitely. In evaluating the performance of professional athletes, when does “decline” start and how steep will it be? The ageing process is full of unknowns, as is much of life. Multiyear contracts given out to mid-career players are part of doing business in baseball. Trying to sit that one out would mean passing on all the free agents and that’s not a world I want to live in.
This brings me to the main objection.
Dan said it; others including Ryan Phillips of Sports Illustrated have said it. I don’t mean to sound flip, but what isn’t a risk? Until we’ve played the games and toted up the stats at the completion of a season, everything is an unknown; nothing is guaranteed. Risk, schmisk.
I would argue that the opposite of taking a risk is doing nothing. Haven’t we had enough of that? I have.
This is the first significant signing of 2026 free agency. It’s also notable that the Red Sox were involved in the very first trade of the 2026 offseason, when they sent Nate Eaton to the Athletics, the day after the World Series (the first eligible day). For several years now, fans have begged the front office to do something.
This is what doing something looks like.
It’s also not a pivot move, à la signing Ranger Suárez in the wake of the Alex Bregman fiasco late in the 2025 offseason. This time, Breslow moved decisively and early. The Red Sox weren’t beat out by a more competitive bid and won’t be Interest Kings this year. We can confidently say that this is the move Craig Breslow wanted to make.
As with any move, whether in baseball or in life, it may turn out to have been the wrong one. We won’t know that for a long time.
But there’s something to be said for making the first move. I suspect it’s the first hand of several Breslow will play. It may even be the forcing move for finally addressing the no-longer-tenable situation in the outfield, since Bauers can play the corner positions in a pinch. It may also mean moving on from Masataka Yoshida. Breslow probably should have ironed out these sticking points in the roster already but I believe he’s going to do it now. One piece at a time is a good way to begin. Alex Speier has already reported that Duran is being shopped hard and presumably Breslow has lots of other balls currently in the air, a few of which will come to fruition.
As I said when Breslow traded for Adley Rutschman at the trade deadline, the Red Sox are making significant moves and I’m on board. I find it a breath of fresh air. Let’s go.
