Are you ready for some football?
The Patriots will enter yet another new era Sunday, this time under coach Mike Vrabel and a legitimate franchise quarterback ready from the jump. According to his coaches, Drake Maye has done everything possible to prepare for what many project will be a Year 2 leap. Any jump will start Sunday against the Raiders.
The Pats are 2.5-point favorites against Las Vegas, which underwent its own organizational makeover this offseason. Longtime Seahawks coach Pete Carroll is now at the helm with first-year offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and a new quarterback in Geno Smith. The Raiders have added a slew of new players, including first-round rookie running back Ashton Jeanty.
But it’s the Raiders holdovers, namely defensive end Maxx Crosby and tight end Brock Bowers, who should give the Patriots their biggest problems. How will Vrabel and Maye combat them?
Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
For the first time in ages, the Patriots have a home-run threat in their backfield.
Second-round rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson has already thrust himself into the conversation for best skill-position player on the team, thanks to a summer when he broke away for several long touchdowns in training camp and the preseason. Henderson reportedly “blew away” the Vikings after two joint practices in Minnesota, and he should see the field plenty alongside Rhamondre Stevenson. Expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to lean heavily on them both against what was a middling Raiders run defense last season.
If the Patriots can run the ball and control the clock, they can also protect an offensive line that is sure to struggle in pass protection.
When the Patriots pass
Find Crosby, and stop him.
That ought to be atop the Patriots’ list if they want to keep Maye upright for the first Week 1 start of his career. Crosby should feast in his matchups against rookie left tackle Will Campbell and aging right tackle Morgan Moses. To offset that pressure, look for Maye to trigger a game plan heavy on short passes, featuring DeMario Douglas and Stefon Diggs on crossing routes.
Douglas and Diggs were Maye’s two favorite targets in training camp, though inside the red zone that could change. The young gunslinger loved throwing jump balls to Kayshon Boutte, 6-foot-4 veteran wideout Mack Hollins, and tight end Hunter Henry. And if Maye doesn’t like his options, he is more than capable of scrambling for a score.
When the Raiders run
Ashton Jeanty, meet Christian Barmore and Milton Williams.
The Patriots’ new defensive tackle duo is the rock upon which Vrabel has rebuilt this defense, and will be critical to forcing Las Vegas into obvious passing situations. In their new scheme, the Pats are counting on penetration to disrupt run plays and create tackles for a loss. But they must be careful because Jeanty is an all-around runner and a threat to go the distance any time he slips through the front seven.
“Powerful, fast, continues to move his feet after contact,” Vrabel said of the rookie. “(He) breaks a lot of tackles.”
On the edge, newly minted captain Harold Landry ranked among the sturdiest run defenders in football last year. Opposite him, K’Lavon Chaisson is a question mark. For most of his career – including last year in Las Vegas – Chaisson has been best suited as a full-time pass rusher. Expect his former team to target Chaisson right away on perimeter runs.
When the Raiders pass
It all starts with Bowers.
The Raiders’ second-year tight end is their best offensive player, a 6-foot-4, 235-pounder who plays and produces like a wide receiver. Last year, he set the NFL rookie record for most catches in a season (112) and broke Mike Ditka’s long-standing record for most receiving yards by a rookie right end (1,194).
Given the Patriots’ spotty depth at safety, Las Vegas figures to attack early and often through Bowers and potentially Jeanty, a capable pass-catching back. Out wide, familiar face Jakobi Meyers is the Raiders’ top receiver, who shouldn’t give the Patriots too many problems opposite veteran corner Carlton Davis. However, it’s a different story for whomever replaces the injured Christian Gonzalez: third-year corner Alex Austin, fresh off a strong summer, 5-foot-8 Marcus Jones, or young back DJ James.
And then, there’s the quarterback. Smith ranks among the most accurate passers in the league, something the Patriots need no reminder of after watching him go 33-of-44 for 327 yards and a touchdown against them last season with the Seahawks. Forcing Smith out of the pocket with a steady pass rush should key any defensive plan, and that means big games from Williams, Barmore and Co.
“Geno really does a nice job of taking care of the football,” Vrabel said. “Very good completion percentage, so he knows where he wants to go with the football.”
Game prediction: Raiders 23, Patriots 19
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