Red Sox Magic Number, Playoff Scenarios For AL Wild Card

The Boston Red Sox appear destined to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2021. The club’s magic number is down to one, meaning the next Houston Astros loss or Red Sox win will send Boston to the postseason. But who the Red Sox will play remains quite uncertain.

Masslive.com’s Chris Cotillo broke it all down on X:

“In all likelihood, Red Sox will be traveling to NY, TOR, CLE or DET for a Wild Card Series starting Tuesday,” Cotillo posted.

But if the Red Sox clinch on Thursday, that puts some wheels in motion.

“(It) allows the final series against Detroit to basically be a ‘get the house in order’ trio of games if Sox are effectively locked into No. 2 or No. 3 WC spots (and a road series anyway).

“Division and top WC spot are still technically in play but major long shots. Red Sox rooting for the chaos to continue elsewhere,” Cotillo added.

So as of now, Boston’s plans for starters Lucas Giolito, Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello are in a state of flux.

“Mainly: If Boston has clinched and seeding is negligible, expect Giolito to be scratched from Sunday,” Cotillo reported. “They could then go Crochet/Bello/Giolito or Crochet/Giolito/Bello (with an extra day). Could very well be bullpen game to save arms vs. Skubal at Fenway on Sunday.”

Odds are the Red Sox will head into the playoffs as an American League Wild Card. So boiling it down, here’s what Cotillo sees for the Red Sox:

“Basically, the scenarios, assuming Red Sox clinch:

“Red Sox at NYY if Toronto wins the East, Boston is WC2.

“Red Sox at TOR if NY wins the East, Boston is WC2.

“Red Sox at CLE if CLE wins Central, Boston is WC3.

“Red Sox at DET if DET wins Central, Boston is WC3.”

The scoreboard watching begins Thursday at 3:35 p.m. ET when the Astros finish up their road series with the Athletics.

The Tigers and Guardians take the field at 6:40 p.m. ET.

The White Sox and Yankees close out their three-game set in the Bronx at 7:05 p.m. ET, followed by the Red Sox and Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. ET.

FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 99.5% chance of qualifying for the postseason.