Remember all that “blueprint” talk? For a time, it looked like there was very little that would slow down Drake Maye. Then, in Week 15, the Bills showed that man coverage and two-high safety shells could frustrate him.
Was there, then, a blueprint that opposing defensive coordinators thought was worth stealing? Did Buffalo’s game plan really present a fundamental problem for the Maye-led offense in New England, or was that second-half performance in Foxboro something that Buffalo was uniquely suited to do?
One week later, the Ravens had an opportunity to try to recreate the Bills’ success against Maye.
Instead, the Patriots had answers ready.
Baltimore did, in fact, try to play some man coverage against Maye; he had the eighth-most dropbacks of any quarterback versus man last week (14). He completed 75 percent of his passes at 11.3 yards per attempt, Sports Info Solutions. The coverage on his fourth-and-2 out-route connection with Stefon Diggs on the game-winning drive? Man-to-man.
What about two-high shells? Those gave Maye a little more trouble, though not enough to be considered troublesome. He hit on 61.1 percent of his passes against two-high safety looks for 7.6 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 103.2. He did have a pressure rate of 54.5 against two-high in Baltimore, though, which is significantly higher than his season average (37.9).
Oddly enough, the Ravens didn’t try much Cover 5, which features two high safeties and man-to-man coverage underneath. Maye hit a 5-yard pass against the only Cover 5 look he saw last week. That coverage was presented to Maye six times when he last saw Buffalo, and he completed just one pass for 16 yards.
Is there something there for the Jets to pull from that could lead to a shocking result on Sunday in East Rutherford?
Only six teams have played more Cover 5 than the Jets this year (31 snaps), and none of them have a lower opponent completion rate (48.4 percent) or yards-per-attempt figure (5.3) when using that coverage.
Additionally, the Jets have played man-to-man on 38.4 percent of dropbacks this season, so perhaps that will continue. But A) they haven’t been all that effective in man this season, allowing the second-most yards per play of any defense in man (6.8), per NextGen Stats. And B) under interim defensive coordinator Chris Harris last week in New Orleans, the Jets played 73 percent zone, per SIS.
Odds are… this won’t really matter. The Patriots will, in all likelihood, roll to victory regardless of the coverages being played. But it’ll be interesting to see if the Jets try to fluster Maye with some of the things that have slowed him in the recent past.
If nothing else, it’ll be another chance for the Patriots to see what opposing defenses believe is the “blueprint” for stopping them, giving them an opportunity to come up with answers to some of their problems before the postseason rolls around.
Let’s dig a little deeper into some of the matchups that’ll matter this week…
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Patriots coverage units vs. Jets returners
If there’s one way in which the Jets can pull off an upset, it’ll be on special teams. They feature the No. 1 team in the NFL in special teams DVOA, and their 30.1-yard kickoff return average ranks first in the NFL. Their 13.4 punt-return average ranks seventh.
The Patriots, meanwhile, had several penalties in the kicking game and allowed multiple long returns to the Bills in Week 15. They had a delay-of-game penalty and a failed fake punt in Week 16. They’ll have to be on their details Sunday in the third phase of the game, and Mike Vrabel knows it.
“Great scheme, excellent players, very good returners,” he said of the Jets. “We’ll have to cover with a purpose this week… Special teams have been a very, very strong point for these guys. Faked a punt, the punt returns have been a weapon, 14-yard average, two touchdowns, one called back.
“So, these are making sure that we’re matching everything that they do from a special teams standpoint. Critical phase.”
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots pass-rushers vs. Jets protectors
The Patriots will be without starting edge-rusher Harold Landry (knee) in this one. And yet, they should still find a way to bother rookie quarterback Brady Cook. The Jets are 30th in the NFL in pressure rate allowed (40.5 percent of their dropbacks result in pressure), per NextGen Stats, and they’re last in sack rate (11.7 percent).
Their two first-round picks over the last two seasons — tackles Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou — have had their issues at times. They both rank inside the bottom-20 when it comes to total pressures allowed; Fashanu has given up 37 (65th among 80 qualifying tackles) and Membou has allowed 32 (60th).
Pro Football Focus ranks Fashanu (28th) and Membou (29th) respectably in pass-block grade, but both are behind Patriots left tackle Will Campbell (19th).
Even if K’Lavon Chaisson, Anfernee Jennings and Elijah Ponder can’t win consistently one-on-one with Jets tackles, Patriots pass-rushers should get home when blitzes are dialed up.
Cook has attempted 22 passes when blitzed and has just a 50 percent completion percentage, a passer rating of 19.3, and a yards-per-attempt figure of just 3.6. He has the worst EPA per dropback against the blitz of any quarterback in football with at least 10 attempts against the blitz (-1.18).
Matchup that could ruin your Sunday
Patriots defense vs. Jets outside runs
While the Patriots should like their chances against the Jets offensive line in pass-protection, they’ll need to show they can stand firm against the run. Jets running back Breece Hall is on track to be a 1,000-yard rusher this season (954 yards), and he’s seventh in the NFL with 43 rushes where he’s clocked 15 mph or more, per NextGen Stats.
To get into the open field and use that speed, though, Hall has needed room to run. And his linemen have provided that, with a league-leading 1.91 yards before contact per rushing attempt this season. The Jets have been especially effective running outside, ranking 10th in the league with 1,279 rushing yards when running outside and ninth in the NFL in yards per attempt outside (5.1).
“Up front, I really enjoy watching their offensive line,” Vrabel said this week. “I think it’s a good group, it’s a very young and talented group on the outside. I love the play demeanor of the guys inside, with [Josh] Myers, [Joe] Tippmann and [John] Simpson. They come off the ball, they’re good in their combinations, so they really allow the runners, but mostly Breece, to get going. There’s not a whole lot of first contact…
“I like that group, they moved us last time. They ran the football against us. The recipe for winning is not going to be to run for 65 yards and give up 140 yards on the ground. I’ve told the team that multiple times.”
Since Week 9, the Patriots are fourth-worst in the NFL in EPA allowed per rush (0.11) and second worst in terms of the percentage of runs in which they allow a positive EPA (51.9). In that time, they’re allowing the sixth-worst yards-per-carry figure (4.8) and the third-worst third-down percentage on runs (30.8).
Matchup that will make your Sunday
Patriots reserve pass-catchers vs. Jets DBs
In trading both corner Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, the Jets made it clear: They’re rebuilding. They also damaged their chances of putting together a formidable pass defense in 2025.
They’re the fourth-worst defense in EPA allowed per pass (0.11). They rank second-to-last in sacks (25), fifth-worst in rating allowed (104.5) and seventh-worst in pressure rate (31.1 percent). What might be especially intriguing for Josh McDaniels this week is that no team has been worse against play-action passes this season (132.6 rating allowed, 47.0 EPA allowed).
Making matters worse for the Jets is that one of their top pass-rushers, Will McDonald IV, was placed on injured reserve this week. Jowon Briggs has been an at-times effective option up front, and he led the team with five pressures last week with five. But when double-teamed — which the Saints did on 16 of his 36 pass-rush attempts — he was held without a pressure, per NextGen.
With Kayshon Boutte (concussion) and Mack Hollins (abdomen; moved to IR) out, that should mean more opportunity for someone like Kyle Williams. DeMario Douglas is questionable to play with a hamstring issue, but if he’s active, then perhaps he’ll be more involved alongside Stefon Diggs. Efton Chism (24 offensive snaps this season, six pass-play snaps) could see some time as well offensively.
Losing Hollins and Boutte is less than ideal. Both are significant contributors to New England’s down-the-field and outside-the-numbers passing game. But against a weaker pass defense, perhaps the Patriots can build some positive momentum for some of their less-frequently used wideouts as they ready for the postseason where contributions will be needed all up and down the roster in order for them to make a run.
