First, a reality check: The Boston Celtics’ quest for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference is all but over.
After falling to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday night, the Celtics (47-24) sit 4.5 games behind the East-leading Detroit Pistons (51-19), who have won two in a row after losing superstar Cade Cunningham to a collapsed lung.
Boston has 11 regular-season games remaining, while Detroit has 10. If the Pistons win just six of their last 10 games, they’re guaranteed the No. 1 seed. Even if they stumble and go 4-6 down the stretch, the Celtics would need to win 10 of their last 11 games to make up that 4.5-game gap.
So, it’s time for Celtics fans to shift their focus to a much tighter race: the battle with the New York Knicks for the No. 2 seed.
Let’s lay everything out.
Eastern Conference standings
As of Monday morning, the Celtics are up just 0.5 games on the surging Knicks, who have won six in a row.
Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report, which is based on 10,000 simulations for the remainder of the season, gives Boston a 53 percent chance of earning the No. 2 seed, just ahead of New York at 43.5 percent.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are lurking 2.5 games behind the Knicks (and three games behind the Celtics), but for all intents and purposes, the No. 2 seed should come down to New York vs. Boston.
Remaining schedules
Which team is better positioned to earn the No. 2 seed?
Both the Celtics and Knicks have pretty difficult schedules down the stretch: Per Tankathon, Boston owns the NBA’s third-toughest remaining schedule (opponents have a combined winning percentage of .544), while New York has the ninth-toughest (.530 opponent winning percentage).
In fact, just two of the Celtics’ remaining 11 games are against teams with losing records, while the Knicks play just three of their remaining 10 games against teams below .500.
What’s at stake
Why is the No. 2 seed so important, you ask?
While the Pistons hope Cunningham will return at some point in the playoffs, his injury casts major doubt over their ability to make a deep playoff run. And if a Cunningham-less Detroit team gets eliminated early, the No. 2 seed would have home-court advantage for the rest of its postseason run through the East.
As for first-round matchups, the No. 2 seed would face the winner of the East play-in tournament (the No. 7 seed), while the No. 3 seed would face the No. 6 seed. The bottom of the East playoff race is an absolute mess — just 2.5 games separate the No. 5 seed from the No. 10 seed — so it’s impossible to predict Round 1 matchups at the moment.
The Celtics would be favored to win any first-round matchup, but there are some teams that could give them trouble — notably the red-hot Atlanta Hawks, who are 12-1 in their last 13 games.
For now, Boston’s goal should be staving off the Knicks for the No. 2 seed and letting the chips fall where they may. And based on the current standings, we could be gearing up for a photo finish.
