The No. 1 seed in the AFC is still up for grabs, but the Los Angeles Chargers’ loss to the Houston Texans in Week 17 is potentially bad news for the New England Patriots’ chances at the one seed.
The Denver Broncos need a win to secure the top seed in the AFC. However, after the Chargers’ loss to the Texans, the Broncos have secured the AFC West title. The Broncos and Chargers face off in Week 18, but now the Chargers have less to play for, meaning they could rest their starters.
The Patriots’ path to the top seed requires them to win against the New York Jets in Week 17 and the Miami Dolphins in Week 18, but they also need the Chargers to lose to the Broncos. If the Chargers decide to rest their starters, the Broncos could have an easy path to clinching the top seed.
The Chargers could finish as high as the No. 5 seed, so they may not rest their starters. However, depending on what time they play, their fate could be sealed. If the Bills beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17, there is a chance the Chargers are locked into the seventh seed before kickoff next week.
If the Bills win their final two games and the Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts next week, the Chargers will be locked into the 7th seed. The NFL has not announced kickoff times for Week 18, so if the Texans and Bills have both won before the Chargers play, they would have no reason to play their starters.
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Nothing is set in stone, and the Chargers may opt to play their starters regardless of if they are locked into any seed. However, their quarterback, Justin Herbert, recently had surgery on his non-throwing hand, and could benefit from a week off.
The reality is, the Patriots do not control their own destiny for the No. 1 seed, and the Chargers’ being eliminated from winning the AFC West decreases the chances of them playing their best players in Week 18.
Until the NFL announces kickoff times, there is no telling how the Chargers will approach personnel. However, given that they can no longer win the division, there is a slight chance that their loss to the Texans on Saturday hurts the Patriots’ chances of claiming the No. 1 seed.
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As for the Patriots, Mike Vrabel and his guys will be focused on securing the AFC East. The Patriots would like to have the No. 1 seed, but winning the AFC East is the first step. The Patriots can win the division with a win and a Bills loss.
