It’s easy to forget, but four of the last five Patriots-Steelers games have been decided by one score.
Sunday should be no different.
Both teams are 1-1 ahead of their first battle in New England since 2019, with Pittsburgh slated as a slight road favorite. Last weekend, Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers dropped a disappointing home opener to the Seahawks because of a couple turnovers and a major special teams gaffe. The Pats, meanwhile, are trying to win back-to-back games for the first time in almost three years following a highlight-laden 33-27 win in Miami.
After topping the 30-point mark for the first time since that same 2022 season, will Mike Vrabel and Co. end another franchise drought this week?
Here’s what to watch for Sunday:
When the Patriots run
Where is T.J. Watt?
That has been the starting point for opponents’ game plans thus far against Pittsburgh, which has allowed six yards per carry on runs away from Watt through two games, according to ESPN. The former Defensive Player of the Year is not the same elite pass-rusher he once was, but his run defense still ranks among the best in the league among edge defenders. The Patriots will want to avoid Watt – who typically aligns to the offense’s right – even if the Steelers find new solutions to stop runs off the left side.
After that, it’s up to Rhamondre Stevenson to continue breaking tackles like he did last week. Stevenson’s six broken tackles at Miami were a single-game high dating back to last October. And if the Pats can squeeze more from rookie TreVeyon Henderson (37 rush yards in two games), big plays could await against a leaky Steelers defense that’s allowing more than 30 points per game.
When the Patriots pass
More time and play-action, please.
Drake Maye enjoyed the best start of his young career last weekend against the Dolphins, thanks partly to an adjusted game plan and much improved pass protection. The Pats’ offensive line allowed just two pressures, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels cranked up his use of play-action throws. Maye threw his first touchdown after a play fake and should be able to exploit Steelers linebackers Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson in the same manner. Both rank among the worst coverage linebackers in the league, per Pro Football Focus grades.
Watt and defensive lineman Cameron Heyward will be the focuses of the Patriots’ protection plan with edge-rusher Alex Highsmith (one sack, 3 QB hits last week) ruled out. Heyward will test rookie left guard Jared Wilson and center Garrett Bradbury in a way they haven’t been this season.
One question: how much work will the wide receivers see?
Former All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey seems rejuvenated through his first two games as a Steeler, and no Patriots wideout topped 35 yards last week in Miami. Kayshon Boutte did score a first-quarter touchdown, but that was the only catch he made all game. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs played just 51% of the Pats’ offensive snaps in South Florida and has 89 receiving yards on the season.
When the Steelers run
Last week, the Patriots missed 14 tackles in Miami. If they can fix that for this weekend, they should control the Steelers’ ground game.
Jaylen Warren leads Pittsburgh with just 85 rushing yards, while Kenneth Gainwell (39 yards) is the only other back of note. Warren has broken five tackles this season, per Pro Football Focus, and drew praise from Pats head coach Mike Vrabel this week. Overall, though, the Steelers’ run offense ranks 29th by opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA because of below-average blocking.
The Steelers’ offensive line rates as one of the worst run-blocking units in the league by most advanced metrics. That may change with time, but the fact is Pittsburgh doesn’t boast great talent around starting center Zach Frazier. Look for the Patriots to control the interior of the line through defensive tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, which leaves only questions on the edge and at the second level where Robert Spillane (eight missed tackles) and Christian Elliss (six) must wrap up.
“We’ll have to tackle much better,” Vrabel said Wednesday. “That’ll be a critical part of this game plan.”
When the Steelers pass
Whether or not Christian Gonzalez suits up Sunday, D.K. Metcalf should be the focal point of the Pats’ coverage plan.
He is the Steelers’ clear-cut No. 1 receiver, a menace at 6-foot-4 and 229 pounds with breakaway speed and two Pro Bowls to his resume. Metcalf also leads Pittsburgh with 13 targets, though Rodgers has spread the ball around. The Steelers’ next top targets are the small and speedy Calvin Austin III (five catches, 92 yards), tight end Jonnu Smith (nine catches, 42 yards), Gainwell (six catches, 20 yards) and Massachusetts native Pat Freiermuth, a trusted tight end.
More than most teams, Pittsburgh loves to operate from two-tight end personnel, fielding Smith and Freiermuth together or one of them with the gigantic Darnell Washington. That ought to force the Patriots into plenty of base defense with just four defensive backs, which will put pressure on players like Spillane, Elliss and safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson to cover 1-on-1.
However the Steelers line up, look for the Pats to force Rodgers to hold on to the ball. Through two weeks, he’s graded out as one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks on throws that take longer than 2.5 seconds from snap to throw. He’s completed just 48.4% of his passes for 245 yards, two touchdowns and two picks around seven sacks taken, per PFF.
Game pick
Patriots 24, Steelers 23
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