A small blizzard of thoughts on a Boston Celtics team that has won nine of its last 10 — culminating with a 111-89 thumping of the rival Lakers on Sunday — while we procrastinate on shoveling out from this latest winter storm:
Brown’s MVP campaign kicks into high gear
The rest of the league might finally be taking note of Jaylen Brown’s impact on Boston’s success this season. So, what would the pathway to Brown really injecting himself into that conversation look like?
Sunday night offered a roadmap. Brown didn’t have his most efficient scoring night, but he did fuel Boston’s dominance while matched up against other MVP candidate. And while Luka Doncic was huffing and puffing amid constant harassment from Brown and Boston’s fleet of young, defensive-minded wings, Brown was getting MVP chants inside Crypto.com Arena as he helped Boston to the finish line of a lopsided win.
Brown needed 28 shots to generate 32 points and he was a little careless at times on drives, leading to five turnovers. But he flirted with another triple-double (eight rebounds, seven assists) and generated three steals while decidedly outplaying Doncic in a national TV showdown.
When LeBron James gushed about Brown after the game, it injected fresh fuel to Brown’s MVP fire while igniting the conversation about where he ranks among the game’s elite this season.
The case for Brown starts with his two-way impact on a Boston squad that has outkicked all outsider expectations this season. Brown has shouldered the offensive burden for a team with the second-best offensive rating in the league and routinely requests the toughest defensive assignment on the other end.
For the season, Brown is holding opponents to 42.2 percent shooting, or a team-best 4.5 percent below expected output. Among the 204 players who have defended at least eight shots per game with 35+ games played this season, Brown’s -4.5 differential ranks tied for 13th in the NBA.
Further delineate that group to all players under 6-foot-9, and Brown rockets to No. 2 behind only Oklahoma City’s Ajay Mitchell (-7.6) in field goal differential.
The Celtics have a whole bunch of games remaining against the players currently in front of Brown in MVP odds. There’s Wednesday’s visit to Denver when he’ll see Nikola Jokic, then two games with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder in March. Boston visits Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs on March 10.
Big nights in those games, along with the Celtics continuing to hold down a top spot in the East, would go a long way toward making voters really ponder Brown in April.
One other thing working in Brown’s favor: He’s been available and impactful just about every night this season. He’s already appeared in 51 games while other candidates like Jokic will be cutting it close to the 65-game award threshold.
40/20 still on the table
Phil Jackson made famous the 40/20 rule, a suggestion that a team must win 40 games before achieving 20 losses in order to be considered a legitimate title threat. Over the past 46 years, only four teams have won an NBA title without accomplishing that feat, the most recent being the 2021 Bucks, who played just 72 games during a COVID-shortened season.
This season, only the Thunder (44-14), Pistons (42-13), and Spurs (40-16) have achieved 40 wins before 20 losses. The Celtics are the only team in the league remaining with a chance to join that group, something that seemed improbable after they fell to 29-18 on January 28.
The Celtics would need to win both ends of a back-to-back in Phoenix and Denver to close out their current four-game road trip, then beat the Nets at home on Friday night to reach 40 wins before 20 losses. Given the team lost its first three games of the season, even having a chance to reach the benchmark is extraordinary, particularly given the absence of Jayson Tatum this season.
Checking the contender boxes
Regardless of whether the Celtics reach the 40/20 plateau, they are putting up a bunch of other elite numbers that seem to confirm their status as a legitimate title contender.
Since January 30, the Celtics own the best defensive rating in the league, posting a mark of 104.2 while going 8-1 in that stretch. Boston has held opponents to 100 points or less in six of those games.
That has helped Boston shimmy up to seventh in the NBA in defensive rating. Boston is also second in the NBA in offensive rating, making it one of six teams in the top 10 in both categories.
The others? Oklahoma City (4th offensive, 1st defensive); Detroit (9th offensive, 2nd defensive); San Antonio (6th offensive, 3rd defensive); Houston (8th offensive, 6th defensive); and Minnesota (10th offensive, 9th defensive). New York and Cleveland are knocking on the door as both sit just outside the top 10 in defensive rating.
RANDOM THOUGHTS
- It says a lot about Joe Mazzulla’s trust in his fleet of young wings that he threw all three of Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez, and Jordan Walsh at Doncic on Sunday. The Lakers were a mere 9-of-26 shooting 34.6 percent) when defended by that trio. Doncic repeatedly looked annoyed by that group’s physicality.
- Even after the Celtics acquired Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline, Neemias Queta continues to shine as the team’s starting center. His energy and effort on the glass remains vital to Boston’s success. Queta has the second-best net rating on the team this season at +11.5, second to only Gonzalez (+17.2).
- Joe Mazzulla has quietly crept up to second in most Coach of the Year odds. While he’d be the first to offer a, “Who cares?” about his candidacy, we do wonder if he’ll push even closer to J.B. Bickerstaff moving forward.
