The New England Patriots are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021, and they’ve drawn a primetime matchup (Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET on NBC) with Justin Herbert and the Chargers on Wild Card weekend.
In a postseason edition of the Mailbag, we’re diving into keys to victory for the Patriots on Sunday, early offseason questions and much more.
Let’s get to it:
Editor’s Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity.
Phil, what are the keys to the game? The way I see it: 1) Turn Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson loose on LA’s offensive line. 2) Run. The. Dang. Ball. 3) Put together long sustained drives that keep Herbert on the bench. Thoughts? – @Toxic_LDR
We’ll have more on this matchup as the week progresses, but as of right now? Here are the three points I’d highlight…
1. Contain (and pressure) Justin Herbert
Herbert led the league in outside-the-pocket touchdown passes this year with nine (against just one outside-the-pocket interception), according to Sports Info Solutions. He’s also second among quarterbacks in rushing yardage this year (498), and his 6.0 yards per attempt rank fourth among signal-callers with at least 25 carries.
Herbert is effective from inside the pocket, too: He completed 69.6 percent of his passes (seventh-highest in the NFL) while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt (12th). But if the Patriots can keep Herbert contained and pressure him, that’s the key.
He’s 26th in the NFL in rating when pressured, per NextGen State (67.1), and his EPA per dropback (-0.39) ranks 20th — a sharp drop-off compared to his No. 7 ranking in that metric when he’s kept clean (+0.33).
How can the Patriots keep Herbert hemmed in the pocket, while also making him uncomfortable? Blitzing him might not be a great idea since his yards per attempt, completion percentage and EPA per dropback all rank in the top 10 in the league when blitzed.
But playing straight-up — perhaps with games up front like the ones that helped generate an Elijah Ponder sack against the Dolphins in Week 18 — might be the way to go against the 30th-ranked offensive line in pass-blocking efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus.
Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images Justin Herbert had surgery on his non-throwing hand in early December.
2. Take care of the football
The Chargers have an opportunistic defense that ranked second in the NFL in interception rate this season and eighth in EPA per play allowed.
Derwin James remains one of the best safeties in the league, and they have three edge rushers who rank in the top 50 when it comes to total pressures: Tuli Tuipulotu (70 pressures, 10th), Odafe Oweh (47, 31st) and Khalil Mack (39, 50th).
The combination of a sound rush and a zone-heavy scheme that allows its defensive backs to have their eyes on the quarterback — giving them opportunities to make plays on the football — will be a challenging one.
Fortunately for the Patriots, their quarterback happens to be one of the best in football this year against zone coverage. Drake Maye is first in the NFL in EPA against zone, third in yards per attempt against zone (9.2) and fourth in rating (102.1).
If Maye can keep that up — and keep the ball out of harm’s way — the Patriots will move on to the Divisional Round.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Drake Maye was the most accurate quarterback in the NFL this season.
3. Continue to lean on heavy personnel runs
The Patriots have turned to some of their “Jumbo” packages in the running game lately and had real success. Over the course of the season, they’ve had six linemen on the field for 66 rushing attempts, and they’re second in the NFL with 6.7 yards per carry when using six linemen. A whopping 47 of those 66 attempts (71.2 percent) have come since their bye week, and they’ve averaged 8.3 yards per attempt in that span.
The Chargers have a relatively sound run defense, allowing 105.4 rush yards per game (eighth in the NFL). But they’ve had some issues with heavier personnel packages at times. They’re 22nd in positive EPA rate allowed on runs featuring a sixth offensive lineman, and they’re 24th in EPA per attempt when defending two-back runs.
Do you think we see another offseason where defense is prioritized in the free-agent spending (similar to last year), or is this the year the Patriots start prioritizing addressing the holes on the offensive line and receiver room with some young veterans who can make an instant impact? – @tellemteach12
Good question, Dylan. First, they really didn’t prioritize adding on the defensive side of the ball. Two of their top targets were Ravens tackle Ronnie Stanley and Buccaneers wideout Chris Godwin. It just so happened that neither were able to be pried loose, so the Patriots pivoted and made their biggest-ticket item Milton Williams.
They’ll be looking to spend on both sides of the ball again this offseason. I think your idea to address the line, with Morgan Moses approaching his 35th birthday, would be wise. Same goes for adding at receiver to further accentuate Drake Maye’s skill set.
With every starting receiver on the roster technically under contract for next season, who’s the odd man out if the Patriots sign Alec Pierce? – @grumpy_veteran
As things stand right now, the idea of adding Alec Pierce to the Patriots makes sense.
He was one of the most productive deep-ball receivers in the league this year. Only Chris Olave of the Saints saw more targets 20 yards or more down the field this season, and Pierce (373 yards) trailed only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (542), CeeDee Lamb (454) and Zay Flowers (390) on receiving yards when targeted 20 yards or more down the field. His receiving EPA on those deep targets was third-best in the NFL.
Long story short, when it comes to explosive plays — or “X plays,” as Mike Vrabel likes to call them — Pierce will be among the best free-agent options available this offseason.
As for who he’d replace? He looks like a true “X” receiver, which is typically manned by Kayshon Boutte and Kyle Williams. Mack Hollins can play the “X” as well.
Acquiring Pierce wouldn’t require getting rid of one of those players, necessarily, but it would shrink the number of available reps on the outside. All part of the equation for Vrabel, John “Stretch” Streicher and Eliot Wolf to consider in the coming months.
If you were Eliot Wolf or Ryan Cowden, what would you be willing to give up if Maxx Crosby became available in a trade? – @apmartinez19
I think a first-round pick and two third-rounders would make some sense.
Khalil Mack, back in 2018 when he was 27, was dealt for two firsts and a third from Oakland to Chicago. But the Bears got a second-rounder back in the swap. Would the Patriots be willing to do that? Giving up that kind of capital while also paying him at the top of the market (his $30 million base salary is fully guaranteed in March)?
They could use a pass-rusher. And Crosby, one would think, still has productive years left given that he’ll be 29 years old prior to the start of next season. But Mike Vrabel and the Patriots have also made it very clear they want to build through the draft, which would mean hitting on their early-round picks to replenish a roster that’s about to get significantly more expensive.
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images Maxx Crosby is one of the NFL’s best pass rushers.
Do you see any Patriots assistant coaches leaving for other opportunities now that the coaching carousel is underway? One name that comes to mind is Thomas Brown. – @BPCGridironChat
With the Browns firing their coach, could Mike Vrabel reach out to some of that coaching staff and pull them into the fold? Vrabel has a lot of connections with them. Jim Schwartz and Tommy Rees come to mind. Especially if Thomas Brown moves on. – @Quig052095
Let’s see what ends up happening with the Patriots staff, Quig. If there are teams that end up hiring assistants like Thomas Brown — the Patriots’ tight ends coach/pass-game coordinator who served as interim offensive coordinator and head coach in Chicago in 2024 — or quarterbacks coach Ashton Grant, then it would make sense for Vrabel to pursue individuals he knows and respects.
But the top jobs on the Patriots staff are spoken for at the moment, and some of the bigger names available on the coaching market could have more high-profile opportunities elsewhere.
Some Patriots free agents had good years. Who do the Pats re-sign between Vederian Lowe, Austin Hooper, Khyiris Tonga, Jaylinn Hawkins, Chaisson and Gibbens? They are all kind of role players; do the Patriots let them walk and collect compensatory picks? – @Christo86383094
It’s a good discussion. When and if they sign them will be dependent upon their market. I could see all of them coming back.
But will a player like, for example, K’Lavon Chaisson — who had 7.5 sacks this year — find greener pastures elsewhere? That’s a position of need in New England, and they have the dough to keep him, but there are a lot of variables that need to sort themselves out before we can make any kind of assessment on the team’s offseason plan for these guys.
