PHOENIX — The years of labor bliss between the NFL and its players isn’t finished. But you can see the end from here.
With a salary cap ballooning to $301 million this season, teams muttering about the rising expenses of doing business and the push for an 18-game regular season (and 16 international games), both sides are chalking their hands for the upcoming tug-of-war. And the NFL’s Annual Meeting this week at The Biltmore could be the true beginning of it.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk and retired 13-year veteran Jason McCourty both weighed in on the simmering showdown on Tom Curran’s Patriots Talk Podcast recently.
Although the Collective Bargaining Agreement runs until March 2031, the owners are clamoring for an 18-game season ASAP. Their stance is that rising costs mean the league needs more inventory to sell. More games, more money — and more for the players, who currently get about 50 percent of gross revenue.
“We’re gonna push like the dickens now, to make international (exposure) more important with us,” Patriots owner Robert Kraft told 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Zolak & Bertrand in January. “Every team will go to 18 (games) and two (exhibition games) and eliminate one of the preseason games. Every team every year will play one game overseas.
“Part of the reason is so we can continue to grow the cap and keep our labor happy. Because we’re sort of getting near the top here, you know, with the (domestic) coverage.”
“Ninety-three of the top 100 programs on television are NFL games,” Kraft continued. “Think about that. It’s really amazing. … You know, we had that Amazon game on Thursday a couple weeks ago — 31 million people streamed in. So as long as we can keep growing revenue, we can keep long-term labor peace.”
That’s a not-so-subtle saber-rattle.
The owners won’t be able to tinker with the revenue share until CBA negotiations begin, but 18 games is their white whale.
“(From an owner’s standpoint), if you’ve got a straight 50-50 revenue share with your workforce, with your primary workforce, you keep your 50, they take their 50, but all the other expenses for the business come out of your 50,” Florio explained. “And as the number keeps going up, at some point someone’s going to say, ‘Hang on a second, why are we giving them half of this unlimited pie that keeps growing and growing and growing? We don’t have to give them half. We don’t need to do that. …
“So if push comes to shove and the NFL says, ‘Hey guys, look, we can’t do 50-50 anymore, here’s what we’re going to do. Here’s the next ten years. This is what the salary cap is going to be this year. This is what’s going to be the year after. This is what will you get a firm certain number. What we make doesn’t matter. And if it ends up being more than 50 percent of the revenue, oh well, that’s on us. But we’ll commit to these numbers.’
“I feel like they’re going to do something like that. And the reason I believe that, last May, the commissioner does a press conference at every one he stopped and pivoted. He’s the highest paid pincushion in the world, and he’s there to take the flak and word-salad his way from one answer to the next.
“He gratuitously pivoted to, ‘Well, you know, we spent a lot of time talking about the salary cap and if it’s working with rising expenses.’ And when I saw that … he’s up there playing defense 99 percent of the time. He’s going to play offense. He’s got a message he wants to send. And I thought, ‘Oh, holy s—. They want to change this 50-50 split.'”
“If the league’s like, ‘We really want to change this model. I’m only sticking with 50-50 if you go to 18 because we need more revenue. We need more revenue to maintain this model. You choose. But let’s go to 18 and we’ll continue to give you a half, at least for now.’ ”
Selling the players on an 18th game will be the job of NFLPA executive director JC Tretter, recently installed as director after being NFLPA president from 2020 to 2024. And the selling is difficult, said McCourty, who’s currently an analyst at ESPN.
“At the end of the day, my experience being a part of the union, you’ve got to bring the players to the table,” McCourty explained. “And the hardest thing for us to do as players is unify, because there’s so many different journeys and different perspectives on, if we’re going to play 18 games, what is 18 games worth? Is it worth more rest? Is it worth more money? Like, what are the key things that you’re going for?
“From a financial standpoint, the more games you play, the more money you’re getting. But the hardest part for players with that is, how much of that money are the players seeing? Because not only is price going up and all those things, but I know you see the news and there’s continued conversation with the NFL renegotiating broadcasting deals where now there are streamers coming in, the amount of money that Peacock paid for a playoff game, renegotiating deals with CBS, Netflix is a player.
“So yes, prices are going up, but the NFL is in no shortage of getting people who want to buy in to the NFL product.”
If the league does move to 18 games, the simple math is to eliminate one of the preseason games. It’s still 20 kickoffs per year. But the wear-and-tear of an added game — and the preparation that goes into that is one sacrifice players will make.
As McCourty points out, though, the preseason also matters for players on the bubble who need to make an impression. It also impacts the overall product; over the decades, offseason work and prohibitions on contact have diminished players’ readiness when the season starts.
“For players, it’s so important to understand: 18 games is a lot,” McCourty said. “(For) the players, myself included, who were drafted at the end of the sixth round, those preseason games were everything. I needed that to be able to make the football team. So, there’s all these different perspectives, and that’s what makes it so hard for the players.
“Because you have 32 owners — 31 with (the publicly-owned Packers) — so it’s a lot easier to get on the same page and understand what they’re trying to gain from 18 games, (as opposed to) thousands of players that are trying to figure out, ‘All right, is it in our best interest? Or if it just becomes unavoidable that it’s going to move to 18 games?’”
It is inevitable, says Florio.
The union is no match for the League of American Oligarchs.
Mike Florio
“The way that gets it done quickly (is if the owners say), ‘This is the best offer you’re ever going to get. It’s not a threat, it’s a promise. This is the best offer. If you don’t take it this season, it’s going to be less next season. If you don’t take it next season, it’s going to be less in ‘28 and it’s going to go all the way down. And in 2031 we’ll lock you out.
“‘This is the offer we’re going to give you in 2031. And when push comes to shove, your players will take it. So, let’s just do this now. Let’s just do this now and get to 18 games.’ I think that’s the way you would play it.
“You’ve got a collection of some of the richest people in the world versus players who are now represented by a former player who was the union president and the chief strategy officer. The union is no match for the League of American Oligarchs. They’re no match for it.
“I think there’s a chance this all happens quickly. We’ll see how aggressively the union stands up to the onslaught that I believe is coming very soon for the NFLPA, if we accept as true, because it is the idea that they’re holding out hope to get to 18 games by the 2027 season.”
