The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos will enter the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season with a first-round playoff bye at stake.
Thanks to their dominant win over the New York Jets, the Patriots’ hopes for the AFC’s No. 1 seed are still alive heading into Week 18. They will need a win over the Miami Dolphins next week and a Broncos loss to the Los Angeles Chargers to clinch the top spot.
As for the race for the AFC East crown, the Patriots officially edged out the Buffalo Bills for their first division title since 2019. Buffalo needed a win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday to stay in contention, but fell 13-12.
So, where does everything stand heading into the regular-season finale? Here’s a breakdown of the AFC playoff picture heading into Week 18:
Current AFC standings
Here’s a look at the AFC standings and the remaining schedules of the teams still in the playoff hunt. Every team not on this list has been eliminated from postseason contention.
- Denver Broncos (13-3, AFC West leader)
- New England Patriots (13-3, AFC East leader)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4, AFC South leader)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, AFC North leader)
- Houston Texans (11-5, First wild card)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5, Second wild card)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5, Third wild card)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Race for the No. 1 seed
Since both the Broncos and the Patriots won their Week 17 matchups, the battle for the AFC’s No. 1 seed will come down to the final week of the regular season. Denver owns the tiebreaker over New England due to its better record against common opponents. (New England lost to the Raiders in Week 1, while Denver beat Las Vegas twice.)
So, for the Patriots to earn the No. 1 seed, here’s what must happen:
- The Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.
- The Broncos lose to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18.
The Chargers have won seven of their last nine games, and they handed the Broncos one of their three losses earlier this season. If the Broncos lose and the Patriots beat the Dolphins, New England would finish as the AFC’s No. 1 seed for the first time since 2017 and secure a first-round bye in the playoffs.
The Broncos would clinch the top seed with a Week 18 win, as they own the tiebreaker over the Patriots. It’s also worth noting that the Jacksonville Jaguars would overtake the Patriots for the No. 2 seed if they beat the Tennessee Titans and the Pats lose to Miami next week, as Jacksonville owns the tiebreaker (better conference record).
Race for the AFC East
The Patriots clinched their first AFC East title since 2019 with their Week 17 win over the Jets and the Bills’ loss to the Eagles.
Current playoff matchups
If the season ended today, the No. 2 seed Patriots would meet the No. 7 Bills for the teams’ third matchup of the season. New England and Buffalo split their regular-season series, with the Patriots winning on the road in Week 5 and the Bills returning the favor in Week 15.
- No. 1 Broncos: BYE
- No. 2 Patriots vs. No. 7 Bills
- No. 3 Jaguars vs. No. 6 Chargers
- No. 4 Steelers vs. No. 5 Texans
