FOXBORO — Drake Maye was optimistic about his team’s ability to bounce back early this week. But this week, against the 3-0 Bills, even a bounce-back performance from the Patriots offense won’t guarantee a victory.
There is some reason for optimism when you dig into the tape. We laid out in this week’s mailbag the number of positive plays orchestrated by Maye as he and the Patriots picked up 317 total yards of offense. By turning would-be losses into gains, by utilizing his arm strength to find openings in the Jags defense, he flashed glimpses of the MVP-caliber player he was last season.
Additionally, when you dig into the numbers, there’s some reason for Patriots fans to feel some semblance of hope. They rank 18th in yards per play (5.1), ahead of the 2-1 Broncos, the 3-0 Raiders and the 3-1 Browns. Maye ranks 16th in quarterback success rate — which measures snap-to-snap consistency and includes quarterback scrambles — which places him ahead of Bryce Young (20th), Matthew Stafford (21st), Bo Nix (22nd), Jalen Hurts (24th) and Jordan Love (26th).
It’s the glaring errors — primarily the back-breaking turnovers — that have rendered the Patriots offense feeble. Can they fix those on the road this week, while dealing with some key injuries, against one of the best teams in football?
Let’s dig into the matchup with some help from numbers provided by NextGen Stats.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Brian Hoyer explains what he believes behind Drake Maye’s recent struggles on The Quick Snap podcast
Drake Maye vs. Drake Maye
Josh McDaniels and Patriots players have sensed a Maye who has maintained confidence during the week despite an ugly three-game stretch to start the season.
“I’ve played golf with him, pickleball with him,” McDaniels said when asked about Maye’s confidence. “I’ve watched him play football, and I’m not really sure what changes that for him. He’s blessed in that regard, you know?
“When I hit a tee shot in the woods, my confidence is shattered, you know, and then I’m gonna do it again and again and again. He doesn’t really do that. He can do that, and then the next one’s down the middle, it’s 340 [yards], and you’re sitting there going, ‘How did that happen?’ “
There are, however, plays where Maye looks unsure of what’s happening around him. He’s been pressured on 41 percent of dropbacks, which is 10th most in the NFL, and he’s working with a series of backup right guards since Mike Onwenu suffered an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve. He’s throwing to receivers who have not yet to this point broken a single tackle in three games. (Yes, you read that right. Not one.)
The line may settle down in time. Eventually, AJ Brown will return from an ankle injury. But until then, Maye needs to limit the mistakes he can control. And perhaps he can do that by making the most of whatever he receives in terms of clean pockets.
Maye posted a 118.7 passer rating from a clean pocket in 2025, second-highest among qualified quarterbacks. This season, his clean-pocket passer rating has fallen to 66.4, lowest among qualified quarterbacks. And he’s left clean pockets 11.9 percent of the time, scrambling past the line of scrimmage, which is most among qualifiers and an increase over his rate of 10.2 percent from a season ago.
When given enough time to throw, will Maye take the easy money in Buffalo? He ranks 28th in passer rating and in EPA per play on throws that travel at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. His four picks on deep throws this year are more than any quarterback. On short throws — 10 yards beyond the line or shorter — he’s 16th in rating, 12th in completion percentage and third in completion percentage over expected.
If Maye can settle himself in key situations, taking what’s given to him in the secondary and in terms of time in the pocket, that would qualify as progress for New England’s face of the franchise.
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson run onto the field before the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos.
Patriots run game vs. Bills defense
The Patriots have struggled to run the ball at times through three weeks. They rank 20th in yards per rush (3.9 yards) this season. But they may be better than what they’ve shown against the strong run defenses of the Seahawks and Jaguars.
Despite a challenging schedule, they’re 10th in EPA per rush and 13th in success rate — far from a disaster on that front. They’ve been particularly good against light boxes (6.3 yards per carry, third in the NFL). Would it surprise you if they were to generate some production on the ground this week?
The Bills are a slightly-above-average run defense (15th in yards per carry, 13th in EPA per play) but hardly a don’t-even-think-about-handing-it-off-this-week unit. If the Patriots can get away from the middle of the defensive line, featuring behemoth tackle Deone Walker, putting defensive backs in positions where they have to make tackles — one of their best tacklers in the defensive backfield, Christian Benford (toe), is questionable for Sunday — could prove beneficial.
It would also make some sense if the Patriots tried to run the football more in order to punch it into the end zone. They’ve scored just one touchdown in six red zone trips this season (16.7%), the lowest rate in the NFL. They’ve called a pass on 86.7 percent of red zone plays, the highest rate in the NFL, and posted a 15.4 percent success rate on dropbacks inside the red zone, the lowest.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Greg Rousseau has been a pass-rushing force through three games.
Patriots offensive line vs. Bills defensive line
The Bills pose some problematic matchups for the Patriots in the trenches. And that may be putting it lightly, depending on which offensive linemen are available to protect Drake Maye.
We mentioned Walker above. While Ed Oliver is the bigger name on the interior for Buffalo, Walker could prove to be a bigger handful if aligned against new right guard Ben Brown. The 6-foot-7, 331-pounder has generated pressure on 12.8 percent of pass-rushes this season, which is the sixth-best rate among defensive tackles. Meanwhile, no defensive lineman has generated more pressure when doubled than Walker (15.4 percent).
The problem for the Patriots is that Buffalo has a pass-rusher who’s doing even more damage than Walker lately. Outside linebacker Greg Rousseau — playing on the edge in a two-point stance in new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard’s 3-4 scheme — was just named AFC Defensive Player of the Month. Aligning primarily on the defensive left (across from right tackles), Rousseau has hit the quarterback on 12.6 percent of pass rushes, which is more than any other edge defender in football. He also has the best pressure-to-sack rate in the league at 35.3 percent.
The Patriots may have veteran Morgan Moses (foot, questionable) available to them, but if he can’t go, then rookie first-rounder Caleb Lomu may have to make his first start at right tackle against one of the hottest pass-rushers in the league. On the road. In a hostile environment.
Not ideal.
Matchup that will take years off your life Part 2
Dalton Kincaid is a tough cover in the red zone.
Bills tight ends vs. Patriots defense
Josh Allen remains a diabolical weapon at the quarterback position because of his dual-threat capabilities. Marcus Jones described tackling Allen — who is the first player in NFL history to have at least five touchdown passes and five rushing touchdowns through the first three games of a season — as a “capture not kill” proposition. That will have to be a group effort.
But, beyond Allen, this Bills offense poses a host of problems. Their running game, with James Cook combining with Allen to give Buffalo a legitimate two-headed monster, ranks first in the NFL in EPA per play.
What they can do in the passing game — specifically out of heavy personnel groupings — has also been a headache for opposing defensive coordinators.
The Bills have used 13 personnel on 32.1 percent of their plays this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. And Josh Allen’s favorite target out of those groupings has been Dalton Kincaid, who’s gained 122 (out of 263) yards in 13 personnel, the most in the league. As a team, the Bills are eighth in the NFL in yards per play when Allen targets “tight” pass-catchers in terms of their alignment.
The Patriots, to their credit, are third in the NFL in yards per play allowed to “tight” targets this season. And they’ve been above average against multi-tight end sets; they rank 11th in EPA per play against 12 personnel and 15th in EPA per play against 13 personnel, per Sumer Sports. But they haven’t seen a pass-catching threat at the position to this point quite like Kincaid.
Matchup that will make your Sunday
Will Campbell vs. Bradley Chubb
The second-year left tackle for the Patriots has allowed pressure on just 2.8 percent of his pass-blocks this season, which is the lowest rate among all offensive tackles. Though the Patriots have done plenty to help him and Moses on the perimeter with scheme, Campbell did not allow a pressure in 37 pass-block snaps against the Jags — which included 16 matchups with top Jacksonville pass-rusher Josh Hines Allen.
Per Pro Football Focus, Campbell ranks eighth in pass-blocking grade among qualifying tackles, and he’s only allowed four pressures in the course of three games, including just one sack. Chubb, who’ll align primarily on the defensive right, is no slouch. The nine-year vet, has 12 pressures in three games and will have some well-honed tricks of the trade to throw the 22-year-old’s way. But the way Campbell has played, he may be the most dependable player on the Patriots roster at the moment.
Prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 21
