We have officially reached the three-quarters mark of the MLB season, and everything the Red Sox hope to achieve is still there for the taking.
Entering the weekend the Red Sox stand at 66-56 with 40 games remaining, their best record at this point in the season since 2021. They hold the American League’s second Wild Card spot, and if the season ended today they’d fly out to Seattle to play the Mariners in a three-game AL Wild Card Series.
Last year’s AL playoff cutline was 86 wins, and to hit that mark this year the Red Sox would only have to go .500 the rest of the way. According to Fangraphs, Boston’s playoff odds currently sit at 73.4%.
Put simply, the Red Sox are in a good spot.
After a disappointing start that saw the club fall a season-low five games below .500 on June 6, the Red Sox have since gone 36-21 to put themselves back in position to play meaningful baseball this fall. Impressive as that’s been, the Red Sox still have a lot of work to do to make sure they get over the finish line and back into the playoffs for the first time in four years.
Here’s a look at what the final quarter of the season could entail.
The road ahead
The Red Sox just completed their most difficult stretch of the season, a 24-game gauntlet coming out of the All-Star break in which the club played six of its eight series against playoff teams. Boston went 13-11 over that stretch, including a 9-1 span sandwiched between two disappointing road trips.
From here on out, the schedule should lighten up a lot.
Over the final month and a half the Red Sox will play 24 of their last 40 games against teams who currently have losing records. That includes two series each against the last-place Orioles and Athletics, along with series against the Pirates, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Rays.
In the short-term the Red Sox should have a good opportunity to stack some wins as well. Four of the club’s next five series will be against losing teams, starting with this week’s upcoming five-game homestand against the Marlins and Orioles.
Mark your calendars
As far as the games most likely to determine Boston’s ultimate playoff fate, there are five series fans will want to circle on the calendar as potential make-or-break opportunities.
The first two are the Red Sox’s last remaining series against the New York Yankees, which will be played in the Bronx next week (Aug. 21-24) and at Fenway Park next month (Sept. 12-14).
The Red Sox are currently 1.5 games up on the Yankees in both the AL East and AL Wild Card standings, so those series could provide the club an opportunity to bury its biggest rival for good, or allow the Yankees to crawl out of their recent tailspin and regain the initiative.
Failure to put the Yankees away could also raise the stakes of Boston’s upcoming series against the Guardians (Sept. 1-3), who sit just below the playoff cutline and might be nipping at the Red Sox’s heels if they start losing ground.
The last two series to watch are Boston’s final series of the regular season, which come against two of the AL’s best teams in the AL East-leading Blue Jays and the AL Central-leading Tigers. If the Red Sox take care of business against the soft part of the remaining schedule, that series in Toronto could potentially determine the AL East crown. And no matter what goes down, the final weekend at Fenway against the Tigers will likely have major AL playoff seeding ramifications.
Reinforcements incoming
The Red Sox brought in right-handed starter Dustin May and left-handed reliever Steven Matz at the trade deadline, but the club might still have a chance to add a couple more impact pieces for the stretch run.
The most notable is right-hander Justin Slaten, who hasn’t pitched since May 28 but who is finally progressing towards a return after it was determined a bone in his neck was pressing against nerves and blood vessels, causing shoulder soreness. Prior to going on the IL Slaten was one of Boston’s top set-up men behind closer Aroldis Chapman, and getting him back would give the club another high-leverage weapon to pair with Garrett Whitlock at the end of games.
The Red Sox might have a chance to add another high-octane bullpen arm when rosters expand in September as well. Hard throwing right-hander David Sandlin, currently the organization’s No. 10 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, has been moved from the rotation to the bullpen in Triple-A in anticipation of a potential big league call-up. Fellow prospects Payton Tolle (No. 2) and Connelly Early (No. 6), both lefties, are also in Triple-A and could emerge as options as well.
Boston’s position player group is largely set in stone, but the Red Sox still hope rookie infielder Marcelo Mayer might be able to return from the sprained wrist that has sidelined him since late July.
As far as September call-ups go, the most likely candidates would be either David Hamilton or Nick Sogard to fortify the club’s bench. But if he continues to progress defensively, particularly at first base, a return from Kristian Campbell can’t be ruled out.
It would also be interesting to see if the Red Sox give top outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 3) a shot. He has also been getting work at first base and has been tearing the cover off the ball ever since his promotion to Worcester, hitting 16 home runs with a .924 OPS in his first 61 games at Triple-A.
