To pay or not to pay, that is the question facing Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. Masslive.com’s Sean McAdam reported Wednesday that the qualifying offer for pending free agents will be a record $22.05 million this winter.
While most free agents are eligible, only a select few will actually receive the offer, which becomes a binding one-year contract if the player accepts it.
McAdam reported the best Red Sox qualifying offer candidates are pitcher Lucas Giolito, outfielder Rob Refsnyder and reliever Justin Wilson. He also noted that the qualifying offer is much greater than what Refnsyder and Wilson will receive on the open market. So that leaves just Giolito.
“Giolito represents an interesting case,” McAdam wrote. “He made $19 million in 2025 and the QO figure of $22.025 million represents only a modest raise. The Red Sox, all things being equal, would be comfortable offering that; whether Giolito would accept it or hold out for a longer commitment is an open question.”
The 31-year-old signed with the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season but ended up missing the year while recovering from elbow surgery.
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This year, Giolito impressed during the regular season, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts.
The right-hander pitched 145 innings in 2025, which turned his 2026 contract into a mutual option. But Giolito ran out of gas at the end of the season and missed the playoffs with an injury to his right elbow.
Before joining Boston, Giolito previously pitched for the Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians.
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He was an All-Star in Chicago and finished in the top 11 for Cy Young Award voting three times.
