Welcome back to the 2025-26 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Today we look at a veteran pitcher who had something of a bounce-back year in 2025.
Who is he and where does he come from?
He’s Patrick Corbin. He just came from a year in the Rangers’ rotation after playing six seasons on the Nationals. The lefty and former Syracuse Orangemen was a 2009 2nd round draft pick. With the Red Sox acquiring Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates, it might not seem like they need another back-of-the-rotation starter right now. But with rumors that the Sox might package some young pitching together for a big trade, it’s worth keeping an eye on possible depth replacements.
He was one of the very best in the game… about a decade ago as a member of the Diamondbacks. At the age of 36, he’s still a durable starter good for 5-inning starts and generating ground balls. He has almost no velocity to speak of anymore and has been very hittable. He ranks in the lowest 30th percentile in strikeouts, which is actually the highest he’s ranked since the pandemic. Corbin, who locked up two All-Star nominations in 2013 and 2018 as well as a World Series in 2019, is not championship or award caliber anymore. But he is very malleable and adjusts his mechanics. He was one of the least valuable pitchers in baseball a few years ago, but any old dog that learns new tricks at 36 enough to gain over a run on his ERA may be worthy of a flyer by this front office when they inevitably look for bargains.
Tl;dr, just give me his 2025 stats.
31 games, 155 1/3 IP, 4.40 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 51 BB, 131 K
Show me a cool highlight.
Here’s him doing our favorite thing, striking Yankees out, three times in one inning.
One may remember when Corbin was so flustered in Washington’s rotation that potential Juan Soto trades were packaging Corbin’s negative value along with Soto’s generational talent. This is because Corbin already made his money in this league by signing a 6-year, $140 million deal with the Nats after going through a full three arbitration years in Arizona. The lefty is truly just in it for the love of the game at this point; last year in Texas, he was inked for $1.1 million, and as he didn’t do anything too special aside from offer a replacement-level arm in the rotation, he likely would not be too much more expensive in 2026 as he continues to age.
Why would he be a good fit on the Red Sox?
Read that last section again. This is the Red Sox. They love a good reclamation project, especially if it doesn’t include throwing money at someone (though Patrick Sandoval would like a word here.), and especially if they need to rebuild some pitching depth after packaging a few arms in a trade.
Corbin has essentially been three different pitchers in this league. He had plenty of velocity before a Tommy John surgery in 2014, and still had some immediately after returning. But the extension on the fastball was too guessable, and he adjusted to throwing his slider almost twice as much as he had previously. This resulted in more grounders. Plus, he’s dependable for a set number of innings, and as addressed plenty this offseason, coming off last year’s injury woes, there is sometimes no better ability than availability.
Why would he not be a good fit on the Red Sox?
First and foremost, these aforementioned grounders still require infielders to field them effectively without being charged an error, something that, following the deal for Gray, should take priority over a replacement-level pitcher. Also, the Red Sox simply have too much depth that is NOT 36 years old or who have just had an ERA over 5.20 in five of the last six seasons. If the team does start with some amalgamation of Tolle-Early-Crawford in the back of the rotation next year, assuming the front looks like Crochet, Bello, Gray, I’d much rather kick the tires on the homegrown talent that showed some promise in the playoff run last season.
A very definitive pass. However, I would understand the type of move if the Red Sox do sign him for right around that million dollar mark, and if they trade a few big league ready arms over the next few weeks. But, generally speaking, signing a Corbin type in 2026 would spell out a team resigning itself to another season of mediocrity. Plus, there have been too many seasons where a deal was out there and the team ended up making a laughably smaller-scale move of that caliber. This league is kinder to teams who spend money on more proven tactics, so hopefully the Red Sox avoid this type of low-risk, low-reward gamble.
