The Boston Bruins are in the middle of a roster retool, but that doesn’t mean TD Garden won’t be hosting important games in April and potentially May.
Boston’s streak of eight consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup Playoffs ended last season as they finished with the NHL’s fifth-worst record. Many experts and analytics models were predicting the B’s would miss the playoffs again this season.
But the Bruins have defied the odds so far and actually have a pretty good shot at reaching the postseason.
The Bruins enter Thursday in the second wild card playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but their margin for error is slim. However, many of the Bruins’ core players are no strangers to playing in important games at this time of the year, so the pressure of a playoff race shouldn’t be a negative for them.
Let’s take a look at the state of the playoff race entering Thursday.
Standings
Atlantic Division
Wild Card
The Bruins trail the Detroit Red Wings by one point with a game in hand for the first wild card playoff spot. They have only a one-point lead over the Columbus Blue Jackets and a five-point lead over the Ottawa Senators for the second and final wild card playoff spot in the East.
Holding off the Blue Jackets and Senators won’t be easy. Both of these teams are playing fantastic of late. The Senators have taken points from eight of their last 10 games. The Blue Jackets have a 6-1-3 record in their last 10 games.
It’s possible that a team like the Washington Capitals could get back into the race, but they are seven points behind with one more game played than the Bruins. That’s a tough deficit to overcome.
The Bruins could also qualify for the playoffs by finishing as one of the top three teams in the Atlantic Division. They are just four points behind the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning for third and second place.
If teams are tied in the standings at the end of the regular season, the first tiebreaker is regulation wins, and the Bruins have a lead in that category over Blue Jackets, Red Wings and Senators.
Remaining schedule
Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Eric Canha-Imagn Images The Blue Jackets are only one point behind the Bruins in the wild card standings.
The Bruins have the second-toughest remaining schedule, per Tankathon. Eight of their last 18 games are against playoff teams. They still have to play the Lightning twice, Blue Jackets twice, the Stars, Sabres, Wild, Canadiens, Red Wings and Panthers.
Eleven of their last 18 games (including five of the last seven) are on the road, and that’s not good news for the Bruins because they’ve struggled away from home. Boston’s 11 road wins are at least five fewer than any other team currently occupying a playoff spot in the East.
“You’d be hard pressed to find a team that wants to have playoff success that’s not able to go out and win on the road. That’s an area we definitely have to be better at,” Bruins GM Don Sweeney said during his post-trade deadline press conference last Friday.
“Sometimes it’s our starts. Sometimes it’s our second period like (last Thursday night). There’s really no excuse for it, to be honest with you. To be a dominant home team like we have, you should be able to go into any environment and execute.”
The most important games left for the Bruins are probably the matchups against the Blue Jackets on March 29 and April 12. Both are in Columbus, and given how close these teams are in the standings, those points will be critical.
Other pivotal games with playoff implications include matchups with the divisional rivals such as the Canadiens, Lightning and Red Wings. The battle for the three Atlantic Division playoff spots will be fun to watch.
What do the analytics say?
Not every analytics model or website agrees on the Bruins’ playoff odds.
For example, MoneyPuck’s model gives the Bruins a 69.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. HockeyStats’ model gives the Bruins a 68 percent chance. Meanwhile, The Athletic’s model, created by Dom Luszczyszyn, gives the B’s just a 42vpercent of reaching the postseason.
A tough schedule and an offense that is scoring well above expected could be some of the reasons for the Bruins not having better playoff odds. If the Bruins were to regress offensively in the coming weeks, it would not be surprising. Their 12.1 goals scored above the expected is the third-highest in the league.
A better-than-expected scoring output and strong goaltending (eighth-best save percentage) have been the primary drivers of the Bruins’ success this season. If either one starts to fall off, that would be a big problem for the B’s.
