New England Patriots fans found themselves in the curious position of rooting for the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night. And Kansas City nearly pulled off a Christmas miracle.
Instead, Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos eked out a 20-13 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium to improve to 13-3 with one game remaining on their schedule.
Denver now has sole possession of the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and even if the Patriots (12-3) beat the New York Jets on Sunday to keep pace, the Broncos own the tiebreaker over New England (more on that later) and would maintain the top seed.
The Patriots still have a very realistic path to the No. 1 seed, however, and still control their own destiny in the AFC East. Let’s break down what’s at stake with Week 17 already off and running.
Current AFC standings
Here’s a look at the AFC standings and the remaining schedules of the teams still in the playoff hunt. Every team not on this list has been eliminated from postseason contention.
- Denver Broncos (13-3, AFC West leader)
- New England Patriots (12-3, AFC East leader)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4, AFC South leader)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6, AFC North leader)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-4, First wild card)
- Buffalo Bills (11-4, Second wild card)
- Houston Texans (10-5, Third wild card)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-8)
Race for the No. 1 seed
As mentioned above, the Broncos currently own the tiebreaker over the Patriots thanks to their better record against common opponents. (New England lost to the Raiders in Week 1, while Denver beat Las Vegas twice.)
So, if Mike Vrabel’s club wants the No. 1 seed, BOTH of the following results need to happen:
- The Patriots beat the Jets in Week 17 AND the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.
- The Broncos lose to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18.
If the Patriots somehow lose to the Jets this Sunday, they’ll be out of the running for the No. 1 seed. But a win would put the pressure on Denver to beat a surging Chargers team that’s won seven of its last eight games and handed the Broncos one of their three losses earlier this season.
If Denver loses its season finale and the Patriots can beat the Jets and Dolphins, New England would finish as the AFC’s No. 1 seed for the first time since 2017 and secure a first-round bye in the playoffs.
It’s also worth noting that the No. 3 seed Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) currently own the tiebreaker over New England (better in-conference record), meaning they would vault to the No. 2 seed if they win their Week 17 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts and the Patriots lose to the Jets.
Race for the AFC East
The Patriots own a one-game lead over the Buffalo Bills (11-4) entering Week 17. Which means if they win their final two games, they’ll be AFC East champions for the first time since 2019.
New England also can clinch the division this weekend with:
- A win over the Jets AND
- A Bills loss to the Philadelphia Eagles (10-5).
That game is at 4:25 p.m. ET in Buffalo, so if the Patriots beat the Jets in their 1 p.m. ET matchup, fans should flip over to Bills-Eagles and root hard for Philly.
If the Patriots lose to the Jets and Buffalo beats Philly, the Bills would regain first place in the AFC East thanks to a tiebreaker involving record vs. AFC opponents.
The Patriots will be heavy favorites this Sunday against the 3-12 Jets, who are starting third-stringer Brady Cook at quarterback. But there’s actually a decent amount riding on this game, so they’ll need to take care of business in the Meadowlands.
Current playoff matchups
If the season ended today, the No. 2 seed Patriots would meet the No. 7 Houston Texans in the Wild Card round. That would be a scary matchup for New England against arguably the best defense in the NFL.
- No. 1 Broncos: BYE
- No. 2 Patriots vs. No. 7 Houston Texans
- No. 3 Jaguars vs. No. 6 Bills
- No. 4 Steelers vs. No. 5 Chargers
