The New England Patriots are locked in as the AFC’s No. 2 seed after finishing their remarkable 2025 regular season with a 14-3 record. As a result, they’ll host the No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Wild Card round.
The Chargers finished their campaign at 11-6 after losing their regular-season finale to the Denver Broncos, during which they benched quarterback Justin Herbert and several other starters. Had L.A. won, New England would have overtaken Denver as the No. 1 seed and earned a first-round bye.
That would have been the best-case scenario, but the Patriots should still feel confident heading into next week’s game. The Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars were the Patriots’ potential first-round opponents, and our Patriots Postgame Live crew believes New England ended up with the ideal matchup.
“I think it is the best matchup for them,” Phil Perry said. “I think seeing the Chargers is a benefit insofar as you’re allowed to avoid the Buffalo Bills. That, to me, would be the goal in this situation. That was the other most likely opponent for you coming into this weekend. So, the fact that you can avoid Josh Allen and that team and James Cook and that running game — your run defense has been pretty porous over the course of the last couple of months here. Keep them at bay for as long as possible.
“Welcome in the Chargers, who have a great quarterback. You could argue this is (Justin Herbert’s) best season. But that offensive line is so banged up. They have some very obvious weak points to their team that (Mike) Vrabel and his coaching staff should be able to take advantage of.”
Tom E. Curran identified coaching, quarterback play, and home-field advantage as key strengths for the Patriots against the Chargers.
“I think the coaching staff figures prominently,” Curran said. “You could look at Vrabel and Jim Harbaugh and say, ‘Well, who’s got the edge?’ I would think Vrabel, especially this year with what he’s gotten out of this team.
“You could even look at the quarterbacks, and I would say that Drake Maye is a better player than Justin Herbert based upon 2025, and I do like Drake Maye’s decision-making better than Justin Herbert’s. Justin Herbert is an unbelievably talented player and very similar to Drake Maye, but he has more brain farts. I’ve just seen way more brain farts from him over the course of his career in leverage situations. Plus, they have to come out here (to New England). I think the Patriots should be able to win this game.”
Former Pats linebacker Ted Johnson pointed out the Chargers’ defense has been among the league’s best all season. Even so, he likes Drake Maye and the Patriots’ chances in front of a rowdy Gillette Stadium crowd.
“I like the matchup. I do. It was my preferable matchup,” Johnson said. “You look at the offense for the Chargers, I mean, they’re excellent in third down, and then every other metric they’re average or below average. Their defense, though, that a lot of people talk about, led by their stud Derwin James, their safety, is pretty damn good, though.
“But I like our offense going up against that defense, and I just think it’s always important. I always like to factor in the external factors, the travel, going across country, as well as the weather here. I’ve seen some playoff games against the Chargers here in Foxboro, and it usually favors the Patriots. So I like that the external factors favor the Patriots in this matchup as well.”
The Patriots had the edge over the Chargers in every major offensive category during the 2025 season. They also allowed fewer points per game and rushing yards per game, but L.A.’s defense had more takeaways, fewer passing yards allowed per game, and fewer total yards allowed per game.
Next week will mark New England’s first postseason appearance since 2021. Los Angeles fell in the AFC Wild Card Round last year and has only one playoff win since 2013.
