Welcome to the Friday Five!
Every week during the NFL regular season, I’ll drop five Patriots-related thoughts on Friday to recap the week that was in Foxboro and look ahead to kickoff.
Ready, set, football.
1. An underdog explanation
What a welcome the Patriots received returning from their bye.
Vegas oddsmakers installed the Bills as 1-point or 1.5-point favorites for this Sunday’s showdown. Now, it’s important to remember sportsbooks set odds with the goal of receiving equal amounts of money on both teams to mitigate their risk no matter the outcome of the game. But if more money is placed during the week on Buffalo, for example, the line will move further in their favor of the Bills, propping them up to say 2-point or 3-point favorites.
That said, the line hasn’t moved all that much. And before bets are placed, sportsbooks use statistical models and analyses to rate teams, project outcomes and inform the odds they set on head-to-head matchups. Those numbers account for myriad factors, including efficiency, strength of schedule and down-to-down situational factors. Which is to say when looking beyond basic measures, not only do oddsmakers believe the Bills are the better team, but appreciably better.
Is that right? Should Buffalo be favored on the road and as much as by three or four points on a neutral field? Not exactly, according to the proprietary Callahan Football Formula.
According to the CFF, the Patriots and Bills sit on the same tier. So do their quarterbacks. Any spread that falls between Buffalo being favored by one and the Pats by three is OK here.
The Bills run the ball, pass-protect and rush the passer better than the Pats, who struggle to create pressure but boast better pass-catchers, coverage players, a stingier run defense and comparable special teams. Let’s give them a coaching edge, too. Against common opponents, Buffalo is 7-2, including a second game versus Miami, and the Patriots are 6-1.
By the deeper metrics, the Bills rank three spots ahead of the Patriots on both offense and defense by the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA, which accounts for strength of schedule. According to Expected Points Added (EPA), the Pats also trail Buffalo on offense (seventh in the league to third), but rate well ahead of them on defense (ninth to 16th). If the publicly available advanced metrics lean toward the Bills, you can bet the oddsmakers’ do, too.
But if the Patriots win Sunday, that’s all that matters. They will clinch both a division title and a season sweep. At that point, there will be no question, no debate, no need to explain.
The Pats are the better team. Period.
2. Base is the battleground
The simplest possible analysis for Sunday’s game is the correct one.
The team whose quarterback plays the best will win Sunday. Drake Maye and Josh Allen are shouldering greater loads than virtually all other quarterbacks in the league. They are the drivers and the engines of their respective offenses.
One battleground to watch, though: how the Patriots defense performs out of base personnel (four defensive backs).
The Pats flexed into a traditional 3-4 defense back in the first meeting, a clear effort to stunt Buffalo’s league-leading run game. That added beef with an extra defensive tackle and widened front corralled star running back James Cook most of the night, as did the game script which forced the Bills to pass to play catchup in the second half. Expect the Patriots to return to bigger personnel Sunday to stop what remains the NFL’s best rushing attack.
But what if Buffalo deploys heavy personnel, triggering the Patriots’ base defense again, and passes? That would leave the Pats’ worst coverage players — their linebackers and safeties — exposed against Cook and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Kincaid led Buffalo with 106 receiving yards in the last matchup. No other Buffalo pass-catcher had 50 yards.
The Patriots would love to play every game through three-corner nickel personnel from start to finish, but opposing offenses — like Buffalo’s — can leverage them out of it by running well and/or playing with extra tight ends and running backs. When the Pats have fielded just four defensive backs, they’ve allowed a passer rating of 116.4 this season, per Sports Info. Solutions. Setting the numbers aside, and the Bills have to know throwing against corners Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis is a fool’s errand compared to targeting their teammates.
So what happens when Allen drops back and attacks them over the middle? It might decide this game.
3. Drake vs. disguise
It’s time for another edition of Drake Maye Stats You Wouldn’t Believe.
Against disguised coverage this season — plays where the defense presents a different picture after the snap than what it presented pre-snap, often by rotating from two deep safeties to one or vice versa — Maye is somehow better than when defenses don’t try to fool him.
Per the SumerSports database, Maye has completed 76.5% of his passes versus disguised coverage, throwing for 10.3 yards per attempt and just one interception in 136 pass attempts. All of those numbers are much higher than his season long numbers (71.5% completion percentage and 8.8 yards per attempt). Buffalo’s defense camouflages coverage as well as most in the league, even fooling Joe Burrow last weekend for a sack.
Will Maye continue to see through the disguise?
4. McDaniels’ wrinkles
Coming off an extra week of preparation for a division opponent intimately familiar with his offense, might Josh McDaniels have a couple trick plays for the Bills on Sunday?
He answered that question Thursday during his weekly press conference … without actually answering the question.
“We’ve used what we feel like we’ve had to use to win each week. Don’t think you will ever get to everything.” he said. “So there’s certainly more things we can do. I think what matters, hopefully we’ve picked the right ones. That’s going to be the most important thing.
“But there’s always new things. There’s always things you grow to, I think, and you build through the season and you evolve offensively. But I’d say there’s quite a few things that we’ve done over and over again that are the core of what we do, just like everybody. And there are a lot of sprinkles you can put on top of the ice cream every once in awhile if you feel like it fits.”
Sprinkles or wrinkles, better to expect the unexpected Sunday. McDaniels is one of the bigger proponents of trick plays across the league, and at the very least should lean heavily into the most basic offensive trick: play-action. More than 40% of Maye’s passes in the Patriots’ last meeting with the Bills came off play-action.
5. A 2026 draft peek-ahead
One of the leading draft experts in sports media, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, released his latest 2026 NFL mock draft last week.
Yes, it’s early. Super early. Way too early. But don’t tell me you’re not even the slightest bit curious about who the Patriots took.
In his mock, Brugler sent Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling to New England at No. 32 overall. Without taking a second to study Freeling’s film, that gets my early stamp of approval.
As Brugler noted, Pats right tackle Morgan Moses turns 35 this spring, and protecting Maye must be a top priority. The Patriots’ offensive line does not come close to matching those of other contenders (Denver, Buffalo, the Rams, etc.). Any step toward solidifying that group as one of the NFL’s best is a good idea.
Other positions I would consider in the first round (a list subject to change): edge rusher, safety and linebacker.
