The Patriots have a chance to extend their winning streak to five games at home Sunday when they take on the Falcons before hitting the road again in Week 10.
The Patriots are in a surprising position at 6-2 and atop the AFC East standings near the midway point in the season. They’ve strung together two straight blowout wins over the Titans and Browns and are currently favored by 5.5 over the Falcons.
Here’s what we’re watching on Sunday when the Falcons come to Gillette Stadium:
• The Falcons have had one of the stingiest pass defenses in the NFL this season, allowing a league-low 149.1 yards per game. That’s not to say opposing offenses haven’t been efficient against the Falcons’ defense, however. The unit ranks 12th in EPA per dropback and 14th in dropback success rate. The Falcons have one of the league’s top cornerbacks in A.J. Terrell and a top safety in Jessie Bates. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been dangerous with the deep ball this season. He might need to pick his spots against the Falcons.
• Running the ball on the 3-4 Falcons has been easier for opposing teams. They’re allowing 126.4 yards per game, and they rank 24th in EPA per rush and 29th in rush success rate. It should be a big game for rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson with Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out with a toe injury. Terrell Jennings, who hasn’t touched the football outside of garbage time, should also be involved, and the Patriots will need to call on practice squad help to fill out their depth.
• Henderson is coming off of his best NFL game, rushing 10 times for 75 yards, though he did fumble and continues to be seeking a role in the passing game. This could be an opportunity for Henderson to string together efficient performances.
• The Falcons have been a Jekyll & Hyde team so far this season, losing 30-0 to the Panthers, beating the Bills and losing 34-10 to the Dolphins. So, which team will show up against the Patriots? If it’s the one that lost to the Panthers and Dolphins, then things could get ugly in Foxboro on Sunday. But the Patriots have to be on their toes since this is a Falcons team who has shown the ability to come to play.
• The Falcons have some dangerous playmakers in running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, but they’ve been inconsistent on offense. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. missed last week’s game against the Dolphins, but on the season, the Falcons rank just 23rd in EPA per dropback and 17th in dropback success rate. Penix has a 49.1 QBR on the season, which ranks 22nd among qualified quarterbacks.
• Robinson ranks sixth among qualified running backs with a 78.0 PFF grade. His 4.05 yards after contact per attempt ranks third in the NFL. The Falcons as a whole rank just 20th in rush EPA, though they are 13th in rush success rate. The Patriots’ defense has been extremely stout against the run this season, ranking second with 76 yards allowed per game. It’s going to be tough sledding for Robinson.
• Pitts could be a problem for the Patriots, who have struggled to cover tight ends this season. Last week against the Browns, the Patriots allowed touchdowns to Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku. Pitts has 39 catches for 344 yards with a touchdown on the season.
• The Patriots traded away defensive end Keion White to the 49ers this week. He was a healthy scratch in last week’s game, so we can assume the Patriots will continue to use Anfernee Jennings rotating behind starters Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson. Jennings was a healthy scratch in Week 7, however. The team also has rookie Elijah Ponder and Caleb Murphy, who was claimed off waivers from the Chargers last Monday, at their disposal.
• The team also traded away Kyle Dugger to the Steelers. Dugger was inactive last week with an ankle injury, and starters Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson were the only safeties to see defensive snaps. If the Patriots want to mix in a third safety, Dell Pettus looks like the top option. The team also elevated Richie Grant, who used to start for the Falcons, from the practice squad last week.
• The Patriots need to establish the run early against the Falcons. They’ve shown the ability to run two games in a row now. The Patriots should win this one. Let’s go with a 24-14 score.
