Brayan Bello entered 2025 looking to take a step forward. The Red Sox were rolling out Garret Crochet and Tanner Houck as a 1-2 punch, with Bello, Lucas Giolito, and Walker Buehler set to figure out the 3, 4, and 5 spots in the starting rotation. But, of course, the rotation suffered a lot over the season — despite being pretty good! — and Bello was counted on more than anticipated. And he mostly delivered. But also showed why he’s not without his limitations.
It took a little bit for Bello to get going after a brief IL stint to open the season, but from mid-June though August, he was on a roll. Funny how so many things got better in the middle of June. I wonder what changed? Anyway, over a span of 14 starts Bello had an ERA/FIP split of 2.42/3.80 for 89 innings. He only struck out 71 but walked just 22 and gave up 68 hits. Although 9 of those hits were home runs. Were the strikeouts there? No. Was he effective? Well, a FIP under 4.00 is still rather valuable for a starting pitcher. So, yes.
But could he fill in behind Garret Crochet when the Sox absolutely need two good starts in a row? Now you’re getting closer to the other side of the coin.
Game 2 of the American League Wild Card against the Yankees. The Sox pulled off Game 1 thanks to the incredible work of Garrett Crochet. They needed to win one more game of the two remaining to advance. Obviously the next round would be even more uncertain but we’re not discussing that. Bello was gifted a rested ‘pen and just needed to hang in long enough for them to cover some ground. In the first inning he got two quick outs and then gave up a single and a home run to Ben Rice. The game was basically over at that point. The Sox would manage to climb back, but Bello lasting just 2.1 innings meant a huge lift for the ‘pen, which was exposed when Alex Cora left Garrett Whitlock out there for an eternity. Is that Bello’s fault? No, of course not. But Not even making it three innings set the loss in motion.
On July 8th Brayan Bello tossed a complete game agains the Colorado Rockies. Yes, yes, it’s the Rockies in 2025. But still, not everyone gets a complete game! He struck out 10, which was nice to see. Only allowed 1 walk and 5 hits. And wrapped up the whole thing in 107 pitches. You can’t read too much into any single outing, of course. But it seemed like things were coming together. A few weeks prior was a 7-inning zero run performance against the Yankees. Eight strikeouts! Was he the strong second in the rotation?
As V’ger said: Is there nothing more? 2024 and 2025 were both steps forward from 2023. But 162 innings to 166 innings? A lower strikeout rate? Identical 4.19 FIPs? That’s a valuable pitcher to have on your staff. But the excitement of Bello being the first home grown starter since — who, Jon Lester? — to claim a rotation spot for several years was palpable. Not to take anyway from Tanner Houck, but he was still mixing in relief work in his third big league season. Bello was a starter as a prospect. But maybe we’re now at his ceiling. And that’s ok.
If Craig Breslow is serious about making the starting rotation a strength again he needs to have someone better than Bello behind Crochet. If he’s the third-best starter on the team, you’re now talking about a deep rotation. Bello is still a guy you want to put into a playoff rotation, but maybe after you’ve got already got 2 wins in the bank. If he can find his strikeout pitch again, all the better. He’s a key part of the rotation, just not the very top.
