It’s pitching preview time, ladies and gentlemen. Over the next several days, I’ll be writing 10,000 words or so about everyone you might see pitching for the Red Sox to start the season. We’ll start with the starters, because if we didn’t start with the starters, they wouldn’t be starters, and that doesn’t make any sense.
I’m grouping the Sox’ starting pitching options into tiers because that’s how my brain works. Don’t think of them as rankings, but rather buckets based on some similarities I see. Stay tuned for more installments on the new guys, the young guns, and the vets battling out at the bottom of the rotation.
It’s Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skenes. They’re the three best starting pitchers in the world. Put them in any order you want; I won’t argue with you. For the Red Sox, Garrett Crochet is in a tier of his own.
2025 in a sentence: Crochet would have won the Cy Young if it weren’t for the other dominant big lefty in the American League.
Crochet’s fastball is in the high 90s with seven feet of extension. He’s got a devastating cutter and a wipeout sweeper. He added a sinker at the end of 2024 that he carried into 2025, and it made him virtually unhittable against lefties. Seriously, he used the pitch 37% of the time, getting 72% strikes overall and 70% groundballs on contact. Ahead in the count, he went to a high four-seam or a sweeper away, putting lefties away with ease. They went 24 for 145 against him, good for a .455 OPS. Against a lefty-heavy lineup, Crochet will cruise every time.
Righties had more success, but only because it’d be hard to have less. Early in counts, he used his fastball and cutter to get ahead. Both pitches returned strikes at a high clip, though the ideal contact rate against each was on the high side. The damage came when he couldn’t get the ball inside. Fastballs and cutters on the inner third of the plate and inside returned ICR rates of 26.5% and 32%, respectively, while those over the middle and arm side returned rates 56% and 50.6%. Nitpicking one of the best pitchers in the sport is silly, and he’s already working to alleviate that issue.
With two strikes against righties, Crochet primarily turns to his four-seam and his sweeper. The four-seam lives upstairs, while he buries the sweeper at the back foot. Both pitches put away hitters at a high rate; he struck out 31.5% of the righties he faced. Still, there’s one element that could take his arsenal to the next level: a changeup. Last season, he threw a changeup 5% of the time to righties, almost entirely in two-strike counts. The 17.9% swinging strike rate was solid, but the pitch was never in the zone and was really only a surprise pitch. He’s tinkering with a new changeup that’s showing some crazy movement, and could help keep hitters off his other pitches.
Right now, almost everything with two-strikes is inside, moving towards a righty. Having a changeup that he can command off the outside edge would be one more thing for righties to think about, which could help him sneak more fastballs by hitters. We’ve seen two changeups (indoors, in a tunnel), and I wonder if it might be too slow, but the lefty seems excited about his new offering. Regardless, if he does what he did last year, no one can complain. If he takes it to a new level, he’ll add a trophy to his mantle.
