Are you ready for some football?
The Patriots are back on Monday Night Football for the first time in three years, thanks to a primetime date with the 2-10 Giants and rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. The Pats are in desperate need of a break, coming off a brutal game against the Bengals where they lost multiple starters to injury. That break will come next week with their bye.
Until then, they’re on upset alert.
Over the last three weeks, the Giants have pushed NFC playoff contenders to the brink with one-score losses to the Lions, Packers and Bears. Since Dart took over the starting job in late September, New York’s offensive numbers are above-average, thanks to Dart’s playmaking and a steady run game. The Giants will surely test a creaking Patriots run defense that allowed its first 100-yard rusher last weekend in Cincinnati, hammering away with running backs Tyrone Tracy Jr., Devin Singletary and occasionally Dart.
As for the Pats, Drake Maye has two new protectors on his blind side, with backups Vederian Lowe and Ben Brown slated to start at left tackle and left guard, respectively. Ideally, the Patriots would pound the rock against a Giants defense allowing 5.9 yards per carry and take some pressure off their passing game. So can TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson set the tone Monday night?
Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When Patriots run
If not now, when?
The Patriots have been unable to sustain any momentum with their run game this year, and their best chance for a late-season breakthrough will be Monday night. The Giants own the worst run defense in the league, per Pro Football Focus, and have tackling issues at all levels. Henderson broke just two tackles last week versus the Bengals, and Stevenson had none in his first game back from turf toe, though both players have broken five-plus in separate games this season.
While the offensive line injuries won’t help, if Henderson can reach the second level of New York’s defense, the speedy rookie should be a threat to score. The Giants also have health problems up front. Defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence has been banged up most of the season with an elbow injury, and outside linebacker Kayon Thibodeaux is out.
When Patriots pass
Stefon Diggs finished with just two catches last week. Don’t expect that to happen again.
Diggs is due for a bounce-back versus a Giants secondary that struggles defending the middle of the field. Diggs has thrived in a predominantly slot receiver role for the Patriots, who rotate DeMario Douglas in behind Diggs to work between the hashes and sometimes deep. New York has allowed a higher rate of deep completions than most defenses, which opens the door to Kayshon Boutte to snag a couple more down the sideline.
That is, if Maye is protected.
Giants edge rusher Brian Burns ranks second in the NFL with 13.5 sacks. He also has 21 QB hits, nine more than rookie Abdul Carter, who went third overall last April. Look for the Giants to test Lowe by putting Burns across from him early and often, while they use stunts to stress Brown at left guard. If Maye has time, he should carve up New York’s secondary. If not, Burns is likely to create trouble all game against a hurting Patriots offensive line that already allowed one of the highest pressure rates in the league when fully healthy.
When Giants run
Whether it’s Dart, Tracy or Singletary, the Patriots know New York will want to run straight at them Monday night.
“I think it’s just a testament to them, the way that they’re calling the game, the fact that they’re in games that are one-possession games, and they have the lead, and they’re able to run the football,” Mike Vrabel said Saturday. “They’re averaging, I think, 35 carries in those last three games. That’s a lot of carries. So, they’ve got good backs and they’ve got a multiple scheme.”
Excluding the injured Cam Skattebo, Tracy (398 yards, one touchdown) and Dart (317 yards, seven touchdowns) lead the Giants in rushing. New York weaponizes Dart as a designed runner on option plays and in downhill schemes. The Patriots struggled without stud defensive tackle Milton Williams last week, and may be without his replacement, Khyiris Tonga, again Monday.
That could leave third-year backup Cory Durden to hold the point of attack in key situations, along with Christian Barmore and rookies Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory. Farmer was a healthy scratch in Cincinnati, where Gregory had trouble in run defense. On the edge, it’s no picnic, either, with Harold Landry limited by a knee injury this week.
All in all, expect the Giants to test the middle of the Pats’ defense in what should be one of the more critical battlegrounds of the entire game.
When Giants pass
You can say this for Dart: he doesn’t lack for daring.
The first-round rookie is an aggressive downfield thrower who runs with abandon. The Giants often use tempo to set up shot plays for him, which Dart can also create by extending plays with his legs. In seven starts, he’s completed 62.7% of his passes for 1,417 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Since he took the reins, slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, who stands 5-foot-8, has been the Giants’ most targeted receiver. Robinson has 66 catches for 794 yards, both team highs, plus three touchdowns. It’s possible the Patriots could shadow Robinson with Christian Gonzalez, who doesn’t often venture into the slot, though Gonzalez is not playing to the lockdown level most expected of him this year.
Otherwise, young tight end Theo Johnson should threaten the Pats down the seams, which will stress linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss, plus safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson. Johnson leads New York with five touchdowns.
If Landry is out, the Pats may opt to blitz more to boost their increasingly punchless pass rush. If they do, Dart has been hit-and-miss versus extra rushers, throwing four touchdowns to three interceptions with a passer rating of 97.1.
Game pick
Giants 27, Patriots 23
