The Red Sox were on the cusp of the World Series in 2003. They made history in 2004. They lost to the eventual World Series Champion Chicago White Sox in the 2005 ALDS. Heading into 2006, with acquisitions like Coco Crisp, Mike Lowell (after the fact at least), and Josh Beckett, expectations were high.
As late as the week of August first the Sox were tied with the Yankees atop the AL East. However, over the final two months of the season a tough 9-21 August and bounceback 13-14 September would leave the club at 86-76. This would be good enough for third place in the AL East, one game behind the Toronto Blue Jays and 11.0 games behind the first place Yankees.
In 2006, the division winners in the AL would be the Yankees (97-65), Twins (96-66), and Athletics (93-69). The Detroit Tigers would snag the single Wild Card with a 95-67 record thanks in part to a strong debut season by Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander. The Sox clearly weren’t close to the Tigers that year. But what if there were two more Wild Cards?
Unlike a lot of years, the AL Central was really good two decades ago. The next best record in the league would be the defending champion White Sox at 90-72. Following them would be the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at 89-73. Then the Toronto Blue Jays finished at 87-75 and, finally, the Red Sox at 86-76. So the expansion to three hypothetical Wild Cards in 2006 would still have left the Jays and Red Sox on the outside looking in. But three or four more wins? Was that an impossible task? Especially if you know there are Wild Cards to be had?
Craig Breslow himself took the loss in a 7-5 defeat against the Yankees. The offense scored 5 runs off Randy Johnson while, uh, starting pitcher Julián Tavárez allowed just 4. Closer of the future Craig Hansen would get credit for a blown save and then Breslow would give up 2 more runs in 0.1 innings. Unlike the sweep in August at the hands of their rival the 2006 Sox took three of the four games this round.
Saturday September 30th was a 3-4 loss for Boston to the Orioles. Tim Wakefield allowed 3 runs in 6.0 innings. Lenny DiNardo and Bryan Corey each tossed as inning of scoreless relief. Mike Timlin was summoned for the save and allowed 2 runs while recording just 2 outs. This game wasn’t thrown away. And it’s one of the easier cases to be made for flipping around the record.
October 1st, the final day of the regular season was a 5.0 inning rain-shortened complete game “no-hit” outing for Red Sox legend Devern Hansack. It was, unfortunately for him, not ruled a no-hitter. Would they have figured out another starter? Tried to move because of the downpour?
Maybe the Sox simply weren’t ever going to pull it off in 2006, no matter how many Wild Cards were available. Every game could be looked at as a what-if if we wanted to. But this season would be a race in 2026. We’d have been following it at the start of September. Instead the story was the Sox were injured and slumping. The division is tight. The AL East is made up of too many good teams, they can’t all make the playoffs!
Someone on reddit was thinking the same thing. And their finding says it all:
Since 1994 the AL East has had 6 instances of 4th place team finishing at least .500 (rest of league has 8) and 5 times the 5th team finished with 75+ wins (rest of the league has 7)
As of today the Blue Jays are at .500 with a 75-75 record and the Orioles, while 6.0 games under .500, aren’t too far off the pace even in 5th. The other fourth place teams – Tigers, Athletics, Nationals, Cardinals, and Giants – are all under .500. The Houston Astros are leading the AL West with the same record that has the Blue Jays on the outside looking in for even the third wild Card.
Despite having the second best record in the American League, the Yankees would have claim to the Wild Card under the 2006 rules while the Sox would go home. The dramatic 15-game winning streak. The 9-game streak. The trade deadline. This year’s whole turnaround would be lost in the wash. Which isn’t to say the postseason is all that matters – it’s not. Baseball is great because of the regular season.
With 82 wins in the books and 12 games to go the 2026 Red Sox are likely to win more than the 86 games they won 20 years ago, but the race would have been over in August.
I’ll probably think about this during what could be a long lockout. All the baseball we’re missing.
