The Patriots are back in primetime this week.
Originally scheduled for a 1 p.m. kickoff, the Patriots’ Week 16 matchup with the Ravens was flexed into the 8:20 p.m. “Sunday Night Football” window last week.
“That’s what you play for. That’s what we’re trying to play for, for many years down the road,” quarterback Drake Maye said Wednesday. “Trying to be the team that people want to see at night. People want to see when the only game on is us. That’s what you want this environment to be. That’s what you want the New England Patriots to be. Playing in night games that matter, home playoff games, and that’s what we’re building towards and working towards. That’s one of the goals. So, we’re just going to keep trying to get there, do whatever we can to get there, and it starts in practice out here today, tomorrow and each and every day.”
Here are 10 things we’re watching on Sunday night:
• The top concern this week is the Patriots’ run defense. Since Milton Williams went down with an ankle injury in Week 11, the Patriots’ run defense has been among the worst in the NFL, ranking 30th in rush EPA (expected points added) per play and 31st in rush success rate. Those issues were compounded last week when linebacker Robert Spillane was active in an emergency role but didn’t take the field.
• Now the Patriots must play the Ravens, who rank third in the NFL with 2,047 rushing yards and first with 5.2 yards per carry. Running back Derrick Henry is having another strong season with 1,125 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per carry. His backup, speedy Keaton Mitchell, is averaging 7.6 yards per carry. And quarterback Lamar Jackson hasn’t been quite as productive as in years past, but he’s still rushing for 5.5 yards per carry.
• How do the Patriots combat that? It’s very unlikely that the Patriots’ run defense will suddenly be fixed this week. So, the Patriots’ offense will need to get out to a fast start. That’s been the trend in recent weeks. Then they just have to hope that their defense can hold on in the second half.
• That brings us to our next concern. The Patriots’ offense has struggled to maintain its production in the second half of games since the beginning of November. They’ve only put together one extended touchdown-scoring drive from Week 9 on, and that came against the Jets. They have just three other touchdowns in the second half of games in that span, and all three were 50-plus-yard runs from running back TreVeyon Henderson. And the Patriots can’t just depend on those.
• The Patriots were still able to win, despite their lack of production and efficiency in the second half, up until Sunday’s loss to the Bills. They might be able to beat the Jets and Dolphins in Weeks 17 and 18 without much second-half offensive production. But the Ravens are a different story, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can’t take his foot off the gas pedal in the second half this week.
• It’s asking a lot out of him, but it would certainly help the Patriots if Henderson can continue his trend of explosive plays. Henderson has become one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL since the beginning of November, and he’s now the offensive rookie of the year favorite.
• Maye can help his MVP candidacy with a big win on Sunday night in front of a national audience. He doesn’t rank quite as highly across the board in passing stats after the last few weeks, but he’s still undoubtedly playing like one of the best quarterbacks in football. He’s currently second in MVP odds behind Rams QB Matthew Stafford and just ahead of Bills QB Josh Allen.
• Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has been quiet for the last three weeks and hasn’t gone for over 30 yards in that span of time. Last week against the Bills, Diggs played just half of the Patriots’ 52 offensive snaps. He’s Maye’s best target, and the Patriots need to figure out a way to get him involved.
• The Patriots’ defense has just three takeaways in their last six games. Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, who were expected to be one of the top cornerback duos in the league this season, both have yet to register a pick. If the Patriots’ defense is going to be leaky anyway, then they at least need to find a way to get aggressive and force some turnovers.
• The Ravens are favored by three points over the Patriots, who can clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie. They might still clinch a playoff spot with a Colts loss or tie, or Texans loss or tie, but this feels like a Ravens 24-21 win.
