The offseason has arrived for the Red Sox, and beyond figuring out who will return among the club’s free agents, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow also has to sort things out with the team’s nine arbitration-eligible players.
For those unfamiliar, players with three or more years of MLB service time, but fewer than six, are eligible for salary arbitration, which is a process that determines the player’s salary for the following season. If players and clubs can’t agree on a salary by a particular deadline, the two sides will exchange salary proposals and a panel of arbitrators will pick one or the other — but nothing in between.
Clubs can also decline to tender a contract to an arbitration-eligible player, at which point they’d be “non-tendered” and immediately become a free agent.
The salaries for these players won’t become official until later in the offseason, but MLBTradeRumors.com has developed an accurate projection system that can give fans an idea of roughly what each player can expect to earn. Here are the projections for each of Boston’s arbitration-eligible players, along with their situations and what the offseason might hold.
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, $13.5 million
Signed as a free agent in August after being released by the Washington Nationals, Lowe helped bolster Boston’s first base situation down the stretch after the club spent four months platooning between Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro following Triston Casas’ season-ending injury. Lowe endured a disastrous season during his time in Washington but performed respectably upon his arrival in Boston, batting .280 with a .790 OPS in 34 games.
The Red Sox could conceivably bring him back as insurance in case Casas isn’t ready to go, but likely not at his projected $13.5 million arbitration figure.
Lowe is Boston’s top non-tender candidate, though that wouldn’t necessarily preclude him from returning in 2026. The club could then try to bring him back on a more favorable deal, or Lowe could look elsewhere to play out his final season of team control.
Jarren Duran, OF, $8.4 million
Duran’s contract situation is unique in that last winter he and the Red Sox avoided arbitration by signing a $3.9 million deal that included an $8 million club option for 2026. But if the Red Sox were to decline his club option he’d still be under team control, and in that case he’d be in line to earn the projected $8.4 million in arbitration.
That $8 million option could be worth more depending on how Duran finishes in the upcoming end-of-year awards.
If Duran earns All-MLB honors, either First or Second-Team, his option will bump up another $500,000. If he finishes top 20 in MVP voting, it’ll bump up $1 million instead. If he’s top 10 in the MVP vote it’ll go up $2 million, top five it’ll rise by $3 million and if he wins MVP it would bump up $4 million.
Duran isn’t going to win MVP, and he probably won’t finish in the top five or 10, but it wouldn’t be crazy to imagine he could sneak into the top 20. If it happens then his option would be worth $9 million.
In that case maybe the Red Sox would decline the option and go to arbitration, but truth be told it might not matter either way. The Red Sox need to streamline their outfield heading into next season and Duran remains one of the club’s top trade candidates.
Tanner Houck, RHP, $3.95 million
Houck is going to miss most, if not all, of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery this past summer. Upon his return he will have one year of team control remaining before hitting free agency after the 2027 season.
That leaves the Red Sox with an interesting decision to make.
The $3.95 million Houck is projected to earn wouldn’t contribute anything towards competing in 2026 but would effectively serve as an investment into Houck’s rehab in hopes that upon his return he can get back to his All-Star form. If the Red Sox believe he can be that pitcher again then that would be money well spent, but if not, is it possible the club could non-tender him? That would be pretty ruthless, but the Angels did something similar with Patrick Sandoval last offseason.
Kutter Crawford, RHP, $2.75 million
Crawford missed all of last season due to injury, first because of knee soreness and later thanks to a wrist injury caused by an accident performing maintenance at his home. But prior to that Crawford had established himself as a workhorse who was coming off a strong 2024 in which he made 33 starts, threw 183.2 innings and posted a 4.36 ERA.
With so many new depth arms like Hunter Dobbins, Richard Fitts, Connelly Early and others vying for rotation spots, Crawford will have to earn his place upon his return next spring. But if he can get back to being anywhere near the pitcher he was in 2024, he’d be a bargain at less than $3 million.
Romy Gonzalez, Util., $1.8 million
You could argue the Red Sox got more bang for their buck from Romy Gonzalez last season than from just about anyone else on the team.
Gonzalez enjoyed a career year in which he batted .305 with an .826 OPS, and following Casas’ injury he stepped into an everyday role and helped keep the Red Sox afloat at both first and second base for the rest of the season. He’s also a devastating weapon against lefties (.331, .978 OPS), and if the Red Sox address their needs as expected this offseason he should enter next spring as one of baseball’s best bench players.
Triston Casas, 1B, $1.7 million
Casas has endured a rough two-year stretch in which he’s missed significant time due to injury, and it’s not clear if he’ll even be ready to go by Opening Day next season. But when healthy Casas has shown himself capable of hitting the ball out of the ballpark, and at less than $2 million it wouldn’t take much for him to outperform his projected price tag next year.
Connor Wong, C, $1.6 million
This past year did not go as planned for Wong, who was passed on the depth chart by rookie Carlos Narvaez and who saw his previously solid offensive numbers crater across the board. Still, Wong is well-liked by the pitching staff and $1.6 million isn’t a lot to pay a backup catcher.
Brennan Bernardino, LHP, $1.1 million
Bernardino has been one of Boston’s most reliable and cost-effective relievers ever since he was claimed off waivers from Seattle in 2023. This past season he ranked fifth on the team with 55 appearances and should remain a key part of the bullpen going forward.
Josh Winckowski, RHP, $800,000
Winckowski is slated to make just a little bit more than the MLB minimum next season, but his place within the organization is uncertain. Winckowski missed most of last season due to injury and with a 40-man roster crunch approaching following the World Series, the right-hander could be a candidate to be designated for assignment or non-tendered.
