On August 18, 2006 the Boston Red Sox began a series in New York against the Yankees while siting at 69-50. Four days and five games later (thanks to a doubleheader as a makeup from June) they were 69-55. The Red Sox had been hanging in the playoff hunt despite massive injuries — they were in first place at the trade deadline — but that five-game sweep essentially ended the season. Alex Cora went 5-16 during the series to bring his season line to .281/.368/.331. Not much power but he sure was getting on base! Craig Breslow did not make an appearance on the pitcher’s mound.
This weekend, another big August series looms large. Instead of starting 2.0 games back of first place, the Red Sox are 5.5 games out of the division lead and 1.5 games back of first wild card in the American League. There are two more Wild Card spots available than there were in 2006, which, while watering down the playoffs, makes it frustrating to not go for it when your team is close. The Yankees Red Sox, and Seattle Mainers are all close together right now for the three Wild Cards but the Kansas City Royals are just 2.5 games back. The Cleveland Guardians just a half a game further behind. For the Red Sox and Yankees anything other than a split is a very dangerous game. One team taking 3 or 4 of these games, in concert with a good outing by the Royals or Guardians, they could find themselves on the outside looking in as the calendar approaches September.
There’s a lot of talk about the importance of the first Wild Card. The one that earns you a playoff series at home. Despite the sweep by the Orioles, that’s where you want the Sox to play. Friendly Fenway.
Lucas Giolito rebounded to control the Miami Marlins for 6.1 strong innings last time out. And, as we saw, the fish can hit a bit. But they are no Yankees as of late. Giolito did not face New York the other times the teams matched up this season. Luis Gil is back from injury and has made three starts. Knocked around by the Marlins for 5 runs in 3.1, then a strong start against the Astros allowing just 2 in 5.1, and then a 1-run outing against the Cardinals for 5.1. While he posted a 7-1 K:BB against Houston, that ratio was just a combined 7:7 K:BB across the other two starts. Here’s hoping there’s still rust.
Brayan Bello did face the Yankees this year tossing 7 shutout innings on June 15th. Max Fried faced off against Bello in that June game. He gave up 2 runs in 7 innings and that was enough for Boston to get the win. The Cardinals knocked him around for 7 runs last time out and he allowed 4 in each of the two previous starts. Going back to the start of July he’s posting a 6.80 ERA / 4.61 FIP.
Garret Crochet, trying to overtake Tarrik Skubal in the Cy Young race, could do a lot to burnish his credentials on Saturday. Crochet had a 5-run 6-inning start against New York followed by 8 dominant innings. Will Warren faced the Red Sox once this season, giving up 4 runs in 6 innings in a game New YOrk would eventually win 9-6. He’s had a few blow-ups over the course of the season and a few dominant outings. In 12 of his starts he’s lasted between 5 and 5.2 innings, failing to make it to through the fifth inning 9 times.
Dustin May, fresh off a disappointing start against Baltimore, will try his luck in New York. He has not faced the Yankees this year or, in fact, ever. Buckle up! The Red Sox chased Carlos Rodón each time they faced him and won both games he started against Boston. He got hit hard by the Mets and the Marlins since those two Boston starts but otherwise has been solid for New York.
New Red Sox first baseman/DH Nathaniel Lowe will get to join the rivalry. As will Roman Anthony.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Thursday, August 21: Lucas Giolito (3.63 ERA / 4.30 FIP) vs. Luis Gil (5.14 ERA / 4.72 FIP)
Friday, August 22: Brayan Bello (3.23 ERA / 4.31 FIP) vs. Max Fried (3.26 ERA / 3.29 FIP)
Saturday, August 23: Garrett Crochet (2.43 ERA / 2.59 FIP) vs. Will Warren (4.25 ERA / 3.65 FIP)
Sunday, August 24: Dustin May (4.59 ERA / 4.49 FIP) vs. Carlos Rodón (3.25 ERA / 3.85 FIP)
Thursday August 21: 7:15 PM ET on FOX
Friday August 22: 7:05 PM ET on NESN
Saturday August 23: 1:05 PM ET on NESN
Sunday August 24: 7:10 PM ET on ESPN
