It’s somewhat fitting the MIAA Tournament Management Committee has a Super 8 return on its agenda when it meets Tuesday, considering it coincides with the start of a Div. 1 state tournament that could end with a dynasty the Div. 1A bracket was partly created in response to.
And yet, as dynasties could emerge across a number of divisions in boys hockey this postseason, none should diminish what will be yet another heart-throbbing three weeks.
Catholic Conference powers once again rule the top of the favorites board in Div. 1, headlined by No. 1 Catholic Memorial (17-2-1). It has arguably the state’s most formidable defense and is strong between the pipes with freshman Jaxson Fleming. Between that and its scoring depth, the Knights could earn the first Div. 1 repeat title since Burlington 13 years ago (or BC High in the 2019 Super Eight).
No. 3 St. John’s Prep (15-3-2) is the last team to beat CM, riding an 11-game win streak into what it hopes will be a third Div. 1 state title in five years. The Eagles’ attack is just as balanced and their defense is versatile in how it limits opponents. Paired with No. 2 Xaverian (15-4-1) and its unbeaten record outside of conference play, the Catholic Conference could give Div. 1 at least three private-school representatives in the Final Four for a fifth straight year.
And if it’s not those three, No. 8 St. John’s (S) (11-8-1) and No. 9 BC High (10-9-1) have looked like potential threats to go on a run as well.
No. 4 Arlington (17-5) and No. 5 Reading (16-3-2) have matched up well against anyone this year, and could potentially meet for an epic state quarterfinal. No. 17 Winchester (11-9-2) is also no stranger to head-turning Cinderella runs in the state tournament the last few years out of the Middlesex League.
Close-outs have been tough for No. 6 Hingham (14-6-2), but an attack as loaded as anyone’s instills confidence. No. 11 Weymouth (16-4) could be a major roadblock on an eight-game win streak.
There’s little doubt No. 7 Pope Francis (14-5-3) is in contention again. It will need to get past a No. 10 St. Mary’s of Lynn (11-9-2) that challenged it twice in the regular season, though No. 23 Bishop Feehan (7-13-2) could stun the Spartans first in a third meeting.
Both No. 12 Archbishop Williams (9-10-2) and No. 14 Arlington Catholic (15-6-1) had rocky moments in the regular season, but when they play their game, they can play with the best.
No. 15 Marshfield or No. 18 Natick could ride momentum after facing off, both looking for a rematch against Xaverian. No. 19 Chelmsford could be trouble for No. 14 Arlington Catholic. So could No. 21 Central Catholic for Archies, No. 24 Malden Catholic has already beaten BC High this year, and No. 13 Framingham versus No. 20 Lincoln-Sudbury should be a tight affair.
The stage was set in the Ed Burns Coffee Pot Tournament for a thrilling Div. 2 state final preview, only for No. 1 Canton (19-1) to roll over No. 2 Tewksbury (18-1-1). That shouldn’t detract from the strong possibility of a rematch at TD Garden. Few defenses are as strong as the Bulldogs’ in what’s been a dominant year as the top public-school team, though it’s hard to imagine Tyler Bourgea and Tewksbury’s potent attack being slowed down to that effect again.
No. 3 Falmouth (15-5-2) has looked like a force many times this year, taking the next step on defense while featuring a powerful top line with depth behind it. No. 4 Burlington (14-5-1) is a dangerous group with strong goaltending if it’s healthy. It could match up with No. 5 Woburn (11-7-2) in the state quarterfinals, which is a rematch from an earlier overtime thriller.
Sixth-seeded Westwood (17-2-1) hasn’t lost in 15 games. No. 7 Milton (11-9-1) has proven to be tough out of an improved Bay State Conference this year, though, No. 10 King Philip (13-5-2) stands tall as one of Div. 2’s top sleepers. Never count out reigning champion No. 11 Billerica (9-9-2) from making noise. No. 13 Duxbury (9-12-1) has looked like a different team for the better in the second half of the year.
Another dynasty could emerge in Div. 3, with reigning champion No. 2 Nauset (15-2-3) playing for a third straight trip to TD Garden. This year’s unit has the horsepower to repeat, though the challenge looks stronger.
Realignments brought Hanover to Div. 3, and the hard-working No. 1 Hawks (16-2-2) showcased their difficulty earlier by taking Nauset to overtime. Outside of a loss to No. 7 Scituate, nobody else has been able to get the best of them.
No. 7 Scituate (11-7-2) also brought Nauset to overtime earlier this year, able to rise up big against premier competition. No. 4 Pembroke (15-3-2) is another Patriot League threat with one of the division’s most potent attacks. Though, No. 5 Shawsheen Tech (17-2-1) is a potential road block as a fellow top-10 scoring team.
The Tri-Valley League contends, too, as No. 3 Medfield (16-4) looks for revenge against Nauset from last year’s state final. No. 13 Norwood (11-8-1) could be a thorn.
Sixth-seeded Dracut/Tyngsboro (17-1-2) isn’t a team to take lightly in a program year, nor are No. 9 Essex Tech (11-7-2), No. 10 Methuen (14-5-1) or No. 11 Nashoba (13-5-2).
The most wide-open race in boys hockey is very likely in Div. 4, as all but two teams seeded in the top-10 have at least five losses this year – many of which come against strong teams from higher divisions.
No. 1 Stoneham (13-7) is chief among them, losing just three games outside of crossover Middlesex League play. Two of them were to a surging No. 4 Wilmington (11-8-1), setting up what could be an all-time Freedom matchup in the Final Four should they meet.
Second-seeded Littleton/Bromfield (19-1) and No. 9 St. Bernard’s (17-3) are the winningest teams of the top 10, looking to translate wins over fringe top-10 teams into deep runs.
No. 8 Sandwich (8-10-2) is the most battle-tested after the Freedom powers with a few notable performances under its belt to instill confidence. Next is No. 3 Dover-Sherborn/Weston (12-9), which is sharpened from a loaded TVL and tight losses to fellow Div. 4 contenders.
Reigning champion No. 5 Winthrop (12-6-2) is right there in the dynasty conversation as a repeat threat, ending the year unbeaten in eight of its last nine games. No. 6 Norwell (13-5-3) turned heads with an 11-game unbeaten close out, including a tie against Nauset.
No. 7 Martha’s Vineyard (12-8) made a statement as a team to watch with a win over D-S/Weston last week. No. 10 Hudson (13-6-1) has two game-changing forwards to watch out for as a threat, while No. 11 North Reading and No. 12 Abington could make noise.
PREDICTIONS
Div. 1
Champion: No. 3 St. John’s Prep
Final Four: No. 1 Catholic Memorial, No. 2 Xaverian, No. 3 St. John’s Prep, No. 4 Arlington
Top Sleepers: No. 11 Weymouth, No. 12 Archbishop Williams
Potential Upset: No. 23 Bishop Feehan over No. 10 St. Mary’s (L)
Best First Round Matchup: No. 15 Marshfield vs No. 18 Natick
Div. 2
Champion: No. 1 Canton
Final Four: No. 1 Canton, No. 2 Tewksbury, No. 5 Woburn, No. 6 Westwood
Top Sleepers: No. 10 King Philip, No. 13 Duxbury
Potential Upset: No. 19 Beverly over No. 14 Whitman-Hanson
Best First Round Matchup: No. 13 Duxbury vs No. 20 Boston Latin
Div. 3
Champion: No. 2 Nauset
Final Four: No. 1 Hanover, No. 2 Nauset, No. 3 Medfield, No. 4 Pembroke
Top Sleepers: No. 7 Scituate, No. 9 Essex Tech
Potential Upset: No. 21 Danvers over No. 13 Westfield
Best First Round Matchup: No. 15 Middleboro/Carver/Wareham vs No. 18 Taunton
Div. 4
Champion: No. 6 Norwell
Final Four: No. 1 Stoneham, No. 4 Wilmington, No. 6 Norwell, No. 7 Martha’s Vineyard
Top Sleepers: No. 8 Sandwich, No. 10 Hudson
Potential Upset: No. 12 Abington over No. 5 Winthrop
Best First Round Matchup: No. 10 Hudson vs No. 23 Bourne
