What to Know
- Hear more from Chris Forsberg in the Celtics Talk Podcast.
- Forsberg points out four stats that have defined the Celtics’ 3-1 start.
- C’s will host the Bulls for an NBA Cup matchup Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Boston.
From Paul George’s defensive chaos to Jayson Tatum’s playmaking evolution, we dug up four numbers that pop off the page through Boston’s first four games.
It’s far too early to make sweeping declarations about this team, but it’s never too early to start obsessing over the analytics. Some of these numbers are undoubtedly destined to regress, but others might be early indicators of what might drive Boston’s success over the 82-game grind.
1. Paul George is a one-man wrecking crew on defense
Remember all that talk about what a 36-year-old Paul George might have left in the tank? Well, apparently there’s still plenty of gas on both ends of the floor.
Most notably, George is averaging a league-leading six deflections per game through Boston’s first four contests.
And this isn’t simply a case of George getting his fingertips on passes. He’s been a legitimate turnover-inducing menace on the defensive end while disrupting passing lanes and simply making opposing ballhandlers think twice about passing in his direction.
George’s 3.5 steals per 100 possessions slot him in the 95th percentile at his position. His 2.3 steals per game ranks tied for 9th in the NBA overall.
The most encouraging part? George doesn’t necessarily need to be the offensive superstar of his younger days to make a positive impact on this team. His defense has changed the momentum of multiple games to start his first season in green.
What’s more, George’s defensive impact is rubbing off on teammates like Sam Hauser and Jordan Walsh, who gushed after Thursday’s practice about the chance to learn from George’s elite defensive instincts.
2. The Celtics are a completely different offensive team with Sam Hauser on the floor
Every season, there’s at least one Celtics player whose on/off number makes us rub our eyes and double check the spreadsheet. Through four games, it’s Hauser.
Boston owns a staggering plus-29.8 net rating in Hauser’s 86 minutes of floor time. When he’s on the bench, that number plummets to minus-10.1.
That number should eventually come back down to earth, but Hauser’s absurd net rating is a reflection of just how good Boston’s bench lineups have been to start the season. Hauser and Neemias Queta have the best on/off splits on the team to start the season.
Boston has produced an absurd 132.6 offensive rating with Hauser on the court through four games. Without him? Just 102.8. A 29.8 points per 100 possession swing. Hauser often gets early run alongside Jayson Tatum, which helps kick up his shot quality.
Hauser is producing 7.5 points per game off catch-and-shoot opportunities, tied for top output on the team with George. He’s connecting on 58.8 percent of 4.3 catch-and-shoot 3s per game.
Even more impressive, Hauser’s true shooting percentage sits 13.1 percentage points above league average, ranking him in the 91st percentile for his position.
3. Payton Pritchard is making a mockery of shot-quality models
Payton Pritchard hasn’t met a deep 3 that he didn’t think he was going to make. But he’s cranked up the degree of difficulty this season.
Through four games, Pritchard has connected on 47.6 percent of his attempts beyond the 3-point arc. That’s impressive enough on its own. But here’s the number that really popped: The expected 3-point percentage on those shots was just 34.4 percent.
That’s a 13.2-percentage-point difference between what the NBA’s shot-quality model anticipates and what Pritchard is actually producing, and it’s by far the best mark on the team among the limited number of qualifiers.
That differential ranks 11th best in the NBA overall, and fifth among non-centers.
Pritchard’s confidence is a weapon. His third-quarter outburst against Chicago on Monday fueled Boston’s most lopsided win of the season. He’s been relatively quiet in Boston’s other three games — at least by his own lofty standards — and he’s often eased his way into new seasons before turning on the jets.
But that sort of shotmaking is going to be vital as the Celtics figure out how to replace the overall offensive production after Jaylen Brown’s departure.
4. Jayson Tatum is turning into one of the NBA’s premier playmakers
So much of the focus on Tatum entering the new season was his need to shoulder the team’s scoring load. Instead of forcing that issue, Tatum has simply given the game what it needs, and that’s made him one of the best playmakers in the league to start the new campaign.
Through Boston’s first four games, Tatum owns a career-best 39 percent assist rate, according to Cleaning the Glass data. That number puts him in the 100th percentile at his position. For perspective, the next closest player among all wings is Dallas’ Cooper Flagg at 33.3 percent.
And when you expand the view across the entirety of the league, Tatum finds himself rubbing elbows with some of the NBA’s most gifted offensive orchestrators.
Only four players have a higher assist rate: Trae Young (40.3 percent), Nikola Jokic (39.6), Josh Giddey (39.4), and Tyrese Haliburton (39.3).
Tatum is generating 18.7 potential assists per 100 possessions, the best mark at his position. He already ranks sixth in the NBA while handing out eight assists per game, but there’s potential for that number to climb even higher if teammates maximize all the quality looks he’s creating.
For years, the conversation around Tatum has centered on whether he could become a more complete offensive player. Could he consistently make the right read at the rim? Could he punish double teams without forcing difficult shots? Could he elevate the players around him?
Early returns this season are encouraging. Tatum’s ability to score and create for others might be the most important piece of Boston’s success. And it will be that combination that will dictate where Tatum lands in the MVP conversation this season.
