With the playoffs expanded to six teams, it’s not surprising for the final spot to go to a team near .500. Just last year, the Cincinnati Reds won a tiebreaker over the New York Mets to grab the final spot at 83-79. In the good old days (before 2022), the San Diego Padres would have had the final spot at 90-72. The 88-90 win range just feels like an appropriate cutoff. Back in May, Matt outlined why the sixth playoff spot is “an abomination” and why the Red Sox were still very much in the playoff race.
Since May 21st, when this was written, the Sox have fallen from five-under .500 to eleven-under .500 after losing two of three to the Washington Nationals. They are 37-48 with 77 games to play. Out of context, that’s an insurmountable number of wins to make up from Independence Day forward. However, the fact that four of the six playoff spots in the American League are currently on pace for 85 wins or less is making this a wildly unique and extreme scenario.
Beyond that, the only two teams that feel like “a threat” are the Houston Astros (43-46, Pace: 78-84) and the Toronto Blue Jays (41-46, Pace: 76-86).
If there were only one playoff spot up for grabs that felt attainable, you’d have to assume that some team would go on a “19-and-4 in September” style run in the second half to make that spot unattainable like the Guardians did a year ago. The multiple spots available have somehow still kept the Red Sox projected playoff odds at 14%, according to Fangraphs. They are projecting the White Sox and Astros to tie for the final wild card spot at 79-83! Their projected win total for the Red Sox is 77-85, two games off of that pace.
If we go off of the current pace, the Red Sox would need to get to 83 games to tie, and 84 games to win the final playoff spot. It would take a record of 47-30 to get to those 84 wins. Of course, outside of a four-game sweep of the Yankees last weekend, there hasn’t been a single week this season that the team has given us reason to think that they could go on a run like that. Perhaps a road trip against the (slightly more) pathetic Angels and Mets can be a catalyst going into the All-Star Break.
In terms of the “worst” teams to ever make the postseason, MLB.com did a great recap a year ago of all of the teams that have made it with 85-wins or fewer. Never forget the 2006 Cardinals, who won their division with 83 wins back when only four teams made the playoffs in each league, and then went on to win the World Series.
Discuss in the comments, be good to each other, and Happy Fourth!
