Things are a lot more stable in Patriots Land this week. A 45-17 beatdown of a 3-1 opponent can have that effect.
Of course, nobody’s going overboard with reaction to Sunday’s win over the Raiders, but at the very least, the train appears to be back on the tracks for Mike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels, Drake Maye, and everybody else involved in the operation in Foxboro.
Plus, after the four healthy receivers stepped up in a big way on Sunday, the team could soon be getting a major boost from the return of A.J. Brown from injured reserve. Just how soon will that be? That’s a good place to start this week’s mailbag.
Editor’s note: Answers have been lightly edited for clarity.
“If Phil Perry was in charge of deciding when AJ Brown came back, when would you have him come back? Sunday, Thursday vs. the Bears, or wait until after that to get extra rest?” — @frizzaud
Geoffrey, before we embark on this hypothetical, let’s assume A.J. Brown is truly healthy enough to play. If he’s not, the conversation is moot.
The degree to which Brown is healthy obviously matters here, and that’s information that he and the Patriots have that will help inform their decision. But for the sake of argument, let’s say all parties involved agree he’s clearly healthy enough to be out there.
If that’s the case, and if it were up to me, I would play him.
It’s a complicated choice, no doubt.
The play-it-safe route makes some sense. He’s a player who has dealt with injuries before. He’s a critical part of their offense whom the Patriots want available to them for the months of December and January. High ankle sprains can linger. Additionally, there’s a short turnaround awaiting the Patriots after the Jets game — the first game in which Brown is eligible to play following a four-week stay on injured reserve — because they play the Bears the following Thursday night.
Why not, then, wait to play Brown? Why not give him a little extra rest, play him in Chicago, and then give him a nice long break after the Bears game to recover? You might not need him to beat the Jets anyway, right?
I would answer that question by saying no football team should be in the business of holding out good players who are healthy enough to play. There’s a lot at stake every week. It’s a conference game. It’s a division game. And I think it could take Brown some time on the field to get back up to speed. Go ahead and get that clock started now, if he’s healthy.
There’s also the human element of things where — if the players in the locker room understand Brown is healthy enough to go in this circumstance — you’d be implicitly sending the message to everyone else going out there and risking injury that, “We don’t want A.J. to get banged up … but the rest of you? No problem!“
That’s a hard thing to pull off as an organization. If Brown is good to go — if he feels good, if he’s hitting speeds he and the team want him to hit as he rehabs, if his routes are looking clean during the ramp-up process — I’d say play him. That doesn’t mean you play him 100 percent of the snaps, but get him out there.
We’ll see how it’s handled, but I’m guessing whatever gets decided will be a path that has been agreed to by everyone involved. Brown is important enough to the future outlook of the team that this decision will not be made lightly or without all parties being on the same page.
“True or False: Elijah Ponder is on the path to have a Cameron Wake-like impact on the NFL after going undrafted?” — @qualitysmoke
Man, QS, that’s a lofty comparison.
If Elijah Ponder can get there, good for him. Never say never, but Cameron Wake ended up playing 11 years in the NFL, making five Pro Bowls, one first-team All-Pro and three second-team All-Pros. He’s one of the best undrafted defensive players of all time. (That’s a fun conversation, by the way. It would also have to include guys like John Randle, James Harrison and Dick “Night Train” Lane.)
What complicates the Ponder-to-Wake comparison is that Wake began his NFL career in earnest after playing a few years in the CFL, and in his second season — where Ponder is now — he had 14.0 sacks and forced three fumbles to make his first Pro Bowl.
Ponder is actually on pace to eclipse Wake’s second-year sack total, believe it or not, and he’s four years younger than Wake was (28) back in 2010. If Ponder can keep this up, if he can continue this rate of improvement, then who knows? It’s just hard to compare a guy who has a season and five games under his belt to a four-time All-Pro.
About this, though, there is no doubt: One could make the argument that Ponder has been New England’s best and most consistent defender through five weeks.
He’s sixth among edge defenders with 4.5 sacks, and he ranks within the NFL’s top 25 at the position, per Sumer Sports, when it comes to “impact plays” (12) and pass-rush win rate (14.4 percent). Per Pro Football Focus, Ponder is ninth in defensive grade, seventh in overall pass-rush grade, and second in pass-rush grade when isolating for “true dropbacks,” which means excluding screens, play-actions and roll-outs.
What a find.
“Phil, if you had to identify one statistical trend that would tell us the Patriots are becoming a legitimate playoff threat rather than just beating inferior teams, what would it be?” — @floridagolffan
This is why DVOA exists, FGF, right? When adjusting for opponent, FTN has the Patriots ranked sixth in defensive DVOA, 15th in offensive DVOA and 13th overall (seventh among AFC teams).
That would indicate that they aren’t just trending toward being a playoff threat. It would suggest they already are.
One more outlet that has the Patriots in the playoff mix as things currently stand? The Athletic’s simulator gives the Patriots a 77 percent chance to reach the postseason and a 40 percent chance to win the division.
But your question seems to be looking for a statistical trend that would tell us what they’ve done over the course of the last two weeks is sustainable and a dependable driver of their success moving forward.
I’d start by looking at quarterback Drake Maye. Shocker, I know.
Performance under pressure can be volatile — and has been for Maye this season — but I’d start there. In each of the last two weeks, he has sported a top-10 rating when under pressure, per NextGen Stats. If that continues, if Maye can continue to mostly take care of the football when under duress, then perhaps he can continue to thrive against better defenses and despite injuries along his offensive line.
If you’re a bigger fan of a more stable quarterbacking metric, then how Maye has performed recently when kept clean may be more your speed. He was sixth in Week 4 and first in Week 5 in EPA from clean pockets, which may be just as strong an indicator that his performance is sustainable. And if Maye can continue to look the way he’s looked lately, then the Patriots will be a threat to win every week.
Ted Johnson breaks down the deep ball from Drake Maye to Kyle Williams in Patriots’ big win over the Raiders
“What position group do you think they try to bolster at the trade deadline?” — @Thecolours
We’re still about a month away from the deadline, Corey. I think another injury to the offensive line, specifically the interior, might force them to make a move. Teams, generally speaking, aren’t looking to part with quality linemen. Ever. But the Patriots may have to go looking if they continue to get banged up there.
Linebacker, because the Patriots feel relatively thin there, would be another spot that could warrant attention.
“Hey Phil, After review, what did you see from Lomu in a full half of action at LT?” — @Nex_Gen25
I think he was fine, Sai. Especially considering he was thrust into action in an emergency situation with Will Campbell going out.
As I reviewed the game, I kept an eye on his hand placement since he told me during training camp that he tries to focus on keeping tight hands when he engages with defenders. Has been since his days at Utah. For the most part, I think he did OK in that regard.
There was one play — the Kyle Williams touchdown — in which I thought his hand-to-hand combat performance was impressive. His mitts got a little wide, and he was initially driven back, but he anchored, reset his left hand to get to his opponent’s chest plate, and held his ground.
There were other snaps where it looked like he might’ve been concerned with games — a defensive tackle attacking his inside shoulder while an edge defender looped inside — and didn’t get much width in his pass set. That might’ve led to him setting more vertically, catching edge rushers and having that side of the pocket collapse to a degree.
But, overall, a solid “debut” for a guy who until then was mostly used as a jumbo tight end.
“I don’t think it was too big for him,” Mike Vrabel said of Lomu on Monday. “I think he was able to settle down. You didn’t really notice him a lot so I think that’s probably a good thing. He was able to anchor at times on some power and allowed Drake to be able transfer up into the pocket. I thought he worked together well with [Alijah Vera-Tucker] when he got in there.”
