Welcome to the 2026-27 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Today, we continue the series with the surprisingly mysterious Brandon Lowe.
Who is he, and where does he come from?
He’s Brandon Lowe, and according to WAR (both Fangraphs (4.9) and Baseball Reference (5.3)), he just had the best season of his career for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Before that, he spent eight seasons playing for the Rays to varying degrees of availability and success.
Yes, but he falls into the solid be not spectacular bucket. Lowe’s been a surprisingly reliable bat every year outside of 2022 when he dealt with multiple injuries, and 2026 marked the third time he’s hit over 30 home runs in his career. I do have my doubts however about whether he’d hit the most home runs on the 2027 Red Sox if you suddenly dropped him onto this roster, but he did manage to outhomer everybody in Boston on the 2026 team, so I can’t completely ignore what he brings to the table either.
One thing that does concern me however is his abysmal playoff record. He’s batted just .115 with a .423 OPS in 120 postseason plate appearances. (Although to be fair, a huge chunk of those were during Covid, which was the most useless MLB season of all time.)
TL;DR, just give me his 2026 stats
150 games, a .260 batting average, a .331 on base, an .824 OPS, a 121 wRC+, and a 5.1 WAR* when you average Baseball Reference and Fangraphs.
*Important disclaimer …
Here’s the thing that line doesn’t tell you: Lowe just had a career year on defense. Baseball Reference has him down for +13 runs in 2026 after being a -14 runs in 2025. Fangraphs meanwhile tells a very similar story, pegging him at +10.7 runs in overall defensive value in 2026 after clocking in at -10.0 in 2025. While the details vary slight, both agree that Lowe had BY FAR his best defensive season in 2026, and BY FAR his worst defensive season in 2025. That’s not really supposed to happen at age 32, and it makes nailing down his value going forward extremely tricky.
Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
2026 Brandon Lowe would be a great fit for the Red Sox! Outstanding defense, 30 plus home run pop, took the field for a full 150 games, and plays a position that’s been a revolving door for a decade. What’s not to love?
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
Well, for starters, he averaged just 93 games a year in his first eight seasons. (To be fair, the real number is probably closer to 115 games per season, which is the average you get before 2026 when you throw out his rookie season and Covid.) But on top of that, those wild swings in the defensive metrics really take a potential bite out of his value. You simply can’t rely on him to be a plus defense at second base for the life of his next contract when you combine his career numbers with the general fact that most guys tend to fall of sharply defensively once they hit their mid 30s.
The bottom line is that for a player who was so consistently good in 2026, he’s surrounded by question marks when you look at the bigger picture. And unfortunately for whoever signs him, this feels like the classic example of a guy who had a career season in his contract year and is never going to duplicate it again.
What would it take to get him?
So here’s the fun part — Nobody knows. Keith Law of the Athletic thinks he’s getting five years and $150 million while other outlets have him getting approximately half of those figures. Again, Lowe’s value going forward is mystery worthy of an Agatha Christie novel.
One thing we do know however is Lowe will come attached with a Qualifying Offer (assuming he declines it by the deadline next week), which means you’ll be paying in draft capital on top of the dollars.
Show me a cool highlight.
Here he is rocking a walk-off home run in August off Kenley Jansen, which is always nice to see after Jansen quit on the Red Sox clubhouse at the end of the 2024 season.
I’m a pass for now. The Red Sox have too many guys going into 2027 surrounded by question marks, and Lowe would only further muddy those waters. And curiously enough, the wild volatility of this club already includes what they’re going to get at second base with Curtis Mead. He could be anything from a power bat at the position who just unlocked the skill in 2026, or a borderline hitter who can’t stick at second base defensively.
But back to Lowe, because there is one caveat: I feel like Lowe is not going to be signed anytime soon (I could be completely wrong about this). He feels like a guy who is going to wait out for that $150 million Keith Law is predicting, and I don’t think he’s going to get it. It’s possible he’s sitting there on the backside of the lockout after the Red Sox have made several other moves. So who knows, maybe they loop back to him after the deck has been shuffled. Maybe he’s the lsat of the QO guys sitting there and the Red Sox whiffed on everybody else and have a gigantic hole left at second base and more room to spend than other big market clubs with a cap going in place. It’s not likely, but we’re not dealing with a normal winter here.
For now though, I’d echo Fitzy Mo Pena’s desire to prioritize Seiya Suzuki, and figure out where the dust settles with Franklin Arias, Trevor Story, Curtis Mead, a whole host of other middle infield utility options the Sox already have, and any potential middle infield trade rumors we don’t even know about yet. Just like with Lowe himself, uncertainty is the name of the game.
