A term that has created much discourse within the NBA community is the “championship window”. A nebulous, poorly defined period of time in which a time is a true championship contender. Today I aim to truly determine if the Celtics have the pieces to go all the way again, or if it’s time for a rebuild/reload (another poorly used term).
The Celtics’ window has been considered open ever since, I would argue, 2021. This is when the Jays fully came into their own and the supporting cast was full of great defenders and shooters. Making the Finals in ‘22 only strengthened this case; then losing in 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals the following year solidfied Boston as a top tier team in the Association. Obviously with the tremendous offseason prior to the 2023-2024 season in which Brad Stevens acquired Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, the C’s would earn their 18th banner. And ever since this moment, the window has been slightly closing.
The 24-25 Celtics team, on paper, could have repeated as champs. I’m convinced that team beats the Pacers in the ECF and battles tough with the Thunder in the Finals. However, once Tatum tore his Achilles, the window continued to shut. It’s the difficult and hard to swallow truth that Jayson Tatum could never return to his former glory; he must prove it in the upcoming season.
Apt drafting leads to difficult situations
Then in that offseason, offloading multiple key contributors in order to avoid the second apron was genius by Brad Stevens, but also revealed the harrowing truth of the current CBA; teams almost always have a 2–3-year window with one core. Look at the Thunder, who infamously held a treasure trove of draft capital from the notorious Paul George trade (ironic) and built one of the greatest squads through savvy deals and immaculate drafting. But now in this offseason, they had to offload Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe in an attempt to counteract the Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren max deals. They essentially had to get rid of their proven depth in order to avoid the all consuming evil of the second apron.
While I speak in dramatics, I believe Brad Stevens agrees with my sentiment. In an exit interview after the playoffs this year, he spoke on how the next CBA needs to consider players drafted by franchises signing major deals differently than if they were traded to incentivize building through the draft. On paper this is an impactful addition to an already suffocating set of conditions teams must be built by unless the owners are prepared to sign a tax bill in the nine figures.
What this offseason showed fans
All this to speak on the championship window. The money aspect of the Celtics, while out of view for the casual fan, is getting a little concerning. I was blown away by the Jordan Walsh and Ron Harper Jr. extensions this summer. Both were for less than I believed they could have got, and love their fit in this Celtics system. Harper Jr. has especially gained the trust of the coaching staff as he was included in the starting 5 for Game 7 but only played 4 minutes. It still says something that he even got the nod.
The Queta deal was bigger than I believed but definitely valuable going forward. Neemias will keep developing as we have watched in the last 3 years into a bonafide walking double-double guy. However, the Paul George contract was once considered untradeable and one of the worst in the league. While he certainly has performed better since the slander began, it’s still way too much money for an aging star with a CVS-sized receipt of injuries.
Then there’s the looming Jayson Tatum max extension. As we saw Donovan Mitchell receive this summer, Tatum’s deal will surely peak with a 70 million dollar per year total. The goalposts will shift and the second apron will give more breathing room but that’s… a lot. For anyone. As Brad Stevens said in the Jaylen Brown presser, it’s becoming more difficult to build a team with two max players. That’s what lead him to trade disgruntled superstar Brown but also offers a view into his much more intelligent brain for teambuilding than the majority of us.
Front office going forward
I read this entirely as an admission to build around Tatum as the #1 and abandon the tired narrative of him and JB as 1A and 1B. If you are going to have a max player, which you need to have an open window, you want it on a beloved icon to the city who is one of the greatest of his generation. But what else about the teambuilding brings worry? The Pritchard contract ends in ‘28 and I feel like now with the added flexibility provided by the George deal also ending will allow us to resign the point guard.
Prior to the Brown trade, I thought bringing Payton back would be near impossible as I value him anywhere in the 18-20 AAV market, potentially higher. Derrick White is signed through 28-29 and who knows what his value will be by then. It is unfairly at an all time low following a less than stellar playoff run, and while he will be in his mid 30s by the end of his deal, I could see him still getting a 12-17 AAV, 2-3 year deal. I say this all without knowing how the CBA will evolve and the unpredictability of the NBA could bring a multitude of events.
To conclude
Is the window closing? Yes. The team that won the championship is long gone and all that remains is Tatum, White, Pritchard and Hauser, a silent reminder of how stifling the CBA is on teambuilding. With Tatum still needing to prove himself as one of the best players in the league and a new starting lineup, this season will truly prove if the team in green have what it take to bring home another Larry O’Brien, or if Stevens should click the big red button and begin the rebuild. Either way, I’ll watch, and I’ll be excited for the future of the Celtics.
