Losing in Week 1 is hard enough. Losing in Week 1 when 10 days of nothingness follow the loss is a lot worse.
Fortunately for the Patriots, the wait to get back onto the field is almost over. And this time, they’ll be on home turf when they host the Steelers on Sunday afternoon at 1 p.m. at Gillette Stadium.
Even though most outsiders predicted a drop from last year’s win total of 14, and even though a trip to Seattle on banner night kind of always looked like a loss on the schedule, the past week-plus has felt a little bit worse than expected based solely on the play of quarterback Drake Maye.
The quarterback admitted that it’s been a long week after his three-interception night in Seattle.
“Yeah, it’s tough. You got a lot of time to think about it,” Maye said. “I think that definitely over the weekend, you are just watching it and thinking about it. And [normally] kind of the first 24 hours, you think about it on Sunday night for sure, and then Monday you watch it and kind of get rid of it. This time it was Thursday and Friday and Saturday, and we got in here on Sunday, and it just felt longer.”
Maye will obviously be the key as the Patriots try to avoid an 0-2 start to the season.
Recent head-to-head matchups
This marks the second straight year that the Steelers have made an early-season visit to Foxboro, as the Steelers won 21-14 in Week 3 last year to drop the Patriots to 1-2. That game featured four lost fumbles by the Patriots — two from Rhamondre Stevenson, and one each from Maye and Antonio Gibson — which led to two of Pittsburgh’s three touchdown drives. (The Patriots then rattled off 10 straight victories.)
The Patriots are 15-16 overall vs. the Steelers in the regular season dating back to 1972, which is pretty impressive considering they were 3-11 in their first 14 matchups. The Patriots are 4-1 against Pittsburgh in the playoffs.
Last five matchups:
- Week 15, 2017: 17-10 Steelers
- Week 1, 2019: 33-3 Patriots
- Week 2, 2022: 17-14 Patriots
- Week 14, 2023: 21-18 Patriots
- Week 3, 2025: 21-14 Steelers
Key Stats
Patriots trying to avoid dreaded 0-2 hole
Anecdotally, falling into an 0-2 hole to start the season feels bad. The statistics bear that out.
Rotowire released a 10-year study that showed just 14.3 percent of teams that start 0-2 end up making the playoffs. None have made the Super Bowl, and only one has reached a conference championship. On the other hand, going 1-1 through two weeks gives teams almost a 50-50 shot of ending up in the postseason. (45.1 percent of 1-1 teams have made the playoffs in the past 10 years.)
The Patriots have had some recent seasons that suggest it’s not worth panicking over a slow start. Last year’s team started 1-2 (after a loss at home to Pittsburgh) and then rattled off 10 straight wins. The 2021 Patriots were 1-3 and then 2-4 before winning seven straight to (briefly) climb into first place in the division.
The major difference this year is, of course, the challenging schedule that awaits the Patriots for the rest of the year. So an 0-2 start would indeed feel like a bit of a devastating blow to the team’s outlook this season.
Turnovers (again)
Drake Maye gets sacked by the Steelers in 2025. Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Last week, turnovers were a key stat in the Patriots-Seahawks preview, and that turned out to be the story of the game.
And considering how last year’s Patriots-Steelers matchup went, with the Steelers forcing five turnovers while turning it over themselves just once, it figures to be the key this week, too.
Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels spoke this week about what he expects to be improved ball security from Drake Maye.
“We know what our record has been when we don’t turn it over,” McDaniels said. “I’ve not experienced anything with [Maye] that he has not learned from when it hasn’t gone our way. And so, I think failing sometimes is a good precursor to a great lesson he’s about to learn. And when he’s learned ’em, he doesn’t make them many times over.”
The Steelers won their turnover battle against Atlanta last week, recovering one of Bijan Robinson’s two fumbles and picking off Cooper Rush twice — including a play-of-the-year candidate from T.J. Watt.
Turnovers always impact games. Pick-sixes from pass rushers flip them on their heads in a hurry.
The Patriots know they’ll have to take care of the football to win the game. But as last week in Seattle proved, knowing is different from doing.
September home woes
Home-field advantage is a real thing. Or at least it’s supposed to be. For the Patriots, it’s been nonexistent in the opening month of the season for the past five years.
Dating back to 2021, when fans were allowed back into the stadium after COVID, the Patriots are 1-10 in home games over the first four weeks of the year. They were 1-2 a year ago, ending an 0-7 run that dated back an 0-3 home start against Miami, New Orleans and Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021.
The Patriots don’t have much opportunity to turn their fortunes this year, as Sunday’s game will be their only home date for the first four weeks. They’ll have to make it count.
Patriots’ keys to victory
Activate TreVeyon Henderson
Rhamondre Stevenson did an adequate job in Week 1 as essentially the only running back in the game. (Corey Kiner got six carries for 11 yards, while Lan Larison caught two passes for nine yards.) TreVeyon Henderson should be able to provide a much-needed change of pace out of the backfield to complement Stevenson this week.
Henderson’s rookie season looked great on paper — 911 rushing yards, 221 receiving yards, 10 total TDs — but he definitely rode out some highs and lows, and he ended on a sour note. Henderson ran 30 times for just 76 yards in four playoff games, and he had four receptions for just nine yards before a 24-yard reception on the very last play of the Super Bowl loss.
After missing Week 1 with an ankle injury, Henderson will be back on the field this weekend. As he showed numerous times last year, he’ll just need one block to hit the hole at full speed and make a game-changing play.
Another test for the O-line
The Patriots’ offensive line faced a bear of a challenge last week in Seattle. It doesn’t really get any easier this week.
The aforementioned T.J. Watt has been a premier pass rusher in the NFL for a long time. Cameron Heyward has been a stalwart in the middle of the line even longer. Alex Highsmith — who had two sacks in Week 1 — is another problem for opposing lines, as are Nick Herbig and Keeanu Benton.
While last year’s game is most remembered for the Patriots’ five turnovers, they also allowed five sacks. Watt had two (and a forced fumble, and the fumble recovery) while Heyward, Derrick Harmon and Herbig had one apiece. The Patriots’ running back trio of Stevenson, Henderson and Antonio Gibson also mustered just 74 yards on 22 carries while fumbling three times on what was, quite simply, a bad day for the Patriots’ offensive line.
Avoiding another one of those will be necessary if New England wants to win.
Steelers’ keys to victory
Lure Drake Maye into an early mistake
Considering all of the attention (and the extra days of fixation) on Maye’s ugly interceptions in Seattle, it feels almost unfathomable for him to hit the field Sunday and throw another pick. Yet if the Steelers’ defense can force the issue with some heavy pressure early, they could seize control of the game and take the home crowd out of it with a pick that would be sure to leave New England feeling a bit stunned.
That will presumably be difficult on the back end if Joey Porter Jr. doesn’t play, but that defense will certainly come out trying to wreak some early havoc to send the Patriots’ offense into a state of confusion.
Attack any corners not named Gonzalez
Aaron Rodgers. Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Christian Gonzalez proved yet again last week that he’s not worth even looking at for opposing QBs. Whoever he’s covering on Sunday should be considered out of the play at the snap by Aaron Rodgers.
But there could be opportunity elsewhere, especially with Carlton Davis dealing with a neck injury this week. The Patriots’ depth at corner is rough, with Charles Woods and rookies Karon Prunty (fifth-round pick) and Channing Canada (undrafted) the next in line to step up on the boundary. Marcus Jones could pop out to the outside, but his matchup against the much-taller Drake London last season would suggest that he might not fare so well against, say, DK Metcalf.
Rodgers may not be nearly the QB he was five years ago, but with either Metcalf or Michael Pittman in a mismatch nearly every snap, he’s still good enough to pounce at that opportunity.
Prediction
Admittedly, this prediction is more about expectations than anything else. Because the Patriots are supposed to be a better team than the Steelers. Whether they actually are, well, that’s to be determined on the field.
Yet there’s reason to believe that the Patriots, even with the somewhat devastating loss of A.J. Brown last week, have plenty of untapped potential on offense. And as has been noted numerous times, Maye rarely struggles in back-to-back weeks. The 24-year-old QB seemed to have taken the Week 1 loss personally, which typically results in a strong bounce-back showing a week later.
There will definitely be some questions about the Patriots’ pass rush and backup cornerbacks in this game, which should lead to some scoring. But ultimately, New England should have enough to outgun Pittsburgh.
Score: 38-30 Patriots
