What to Know
- Patriots (5-3) have won four of their last five games, including a 24-19 victory over Dolphins in Week 8.
- Packers (5-3) have won four of their last five games, including a 27-19 victory over Panthers in Week 8.
- First Pats-Packers matchup since 2022.
- Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
The New England Patriots will meet their match in the Green Bay Packers this Sunday.
Both teams enter the interconference matchup with 5-3 records and four wins in their last five games. New England is coming off a 24-19 victory in Miami, while Green Bay earned a 27-19 home win over Carolina in Week 8.
The showdown will feature a fun quarterback matchup between the Patriots’ Drake Maye and the Packers’ Jordan Love. Both signal-callers have a penchant for the deep ball, so we could be in for a shootout at Gillette Stadium.
Will Maye and the Patriots earn their first win against an NFC opponent this season? Check out our Pats-Packers Week 9 preview and prediction below:
Recent head-to-head matchups
These teams have faced off only 13 times in league history. Their most noteworthy matchup, of course, came in Super Bowl XXXI when the Packers earned a 35-21 victory.
Green Bay has had the edge with a 7-6 record against New England, including a 27-24 overtime win in their last meeting four years ago at Lambeau Field. The Patriots won their last matchup at Gillette Stadium in 2018, 31-17.
- Week 4, 2022 at Green Bay: 27-24 Packers (OT)
- Week 9, 2018 at New England: 31-17 Patriots
- Week 13, 2014 at Green Bay: 26-21 Packers
Key stats
Airing it out
The Packers have the NFL’s second-highest pass rate at 66.1 percent. Jordan Love leads the league with 312 pass attempts.
Expect that trend to continue on Sunday, even with All-Pro running back Josh Jacobs in the backfield. Green Bay has had the league’s worst rushing attack all season (60.6 yards per game), and Jacobs hasn’t done anything to help those numbers since returning two weeks ago, averaging a measly 2.3 yards per carry.
This Packers offense is built around Love’s connection with wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, as well as tight end Tucker Kraft. Get your popcorn ready for the Watson vs. Christian Gonzalez matchup.
In the zone
Drake Maye loves taking risks deep down the field, but the stingy Packers secondary will test his patience. Green Bay plays a ton of zone defense and excels at limiting explosive plays. Opposing QBs have completed just four of their 16 deep passes this season.
Josh McDaniels’ offense might have to be more methodical, and that will undoubtedly be more difficult if Maye’s safety blanket — tight end Hunter Henry — can’t play due to his foot injury. Maye could be without three of his top pass-catchers (Henry, A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs), though there’s some good news as Mack Hollins could return from IR.
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Patriots’ key to victory
Protect the football
Green Bay’s defense ranks second in the NFL with 15 takeaways. New England’s offense has the third-most giveaways (15).
Maye has done a much better job of taking care of the football over the last month. After turning it over seven times in his first three games this season, the third-year QB has only three turnovers over his last five games.
Something’s got to give, because Jonathan Gannon’s blitz-heavy defense has tallied at least two takeaways in each of its last five games. This will be Maye’s toughest test in a while.
Packers’ key to victory
Capitalize on the blitz
Like the Packers, the Patriots like to blitz early and often. They enter Week 9 with the seventh-highest blitz rate in the NFL (37.8 percent).
This strategy could play right into the Packers’ hands, as Love leads the league with 824 passing yards against the blitz. It might be wise for Mike Vrabel and Zak Kuhr’s defense to play more conservatively against Love, who can carve defenses with quick screens to Jacobs and underneath routes to Kraft.
Rather than relying on the blitz, the Patriots can use simulated pressures to disrupt Love without leaving the secondary vulnerable.
Prediction
This will be a fun interconference showdown between similar, evenly matched teams. But if the Packers’ rushing woes continue, we see them struggling to sustain drives against a solid Patriots defense on the road.
While both Maye and Love could put up big numbers, Green Bay’s inability to utilize the run game and keep New England’s defense off balance with play-action will be the difference.
Score: 28-21 Patriots
