The New England Patriots are seeking their first trip to the AFC Championship Game since the 2018 season, and standing in their way are the Houston Texans.
The No. 2 seed Patriots will host the No. 5 seed Texans in the AFC Divisional Round next Sunday with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. New England defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 while Houston beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 in the Wild Card Round.
Before this past weekend, the Patriots hadn’t won a playoff game since Super Bowl LIII in February of 2019.
The Texans have reached the Divisional Round six times as a franchise since entering the NFL in 2002, and they’re 0-6 in those games. Will they finally break through and beat the Patriots, or will New England take another step toward the Super Bowl?
Check out our Patriots-Texans preview and prediction below.
Recent head-to-head
These two teams don’t know each other very well.
The Patriots and Texans have squared off only once since 2021, and it was a 41-21 win for Houston at Gillette Stadium in Week 6 of the 2024 season. Stefon Diggs, who’s now the No. 1 wide receiver for the Patriots, caught six passes for 77 yards and a touchdown for the Texans in that game, which was Drake Maye’s first career start.
These teams have met twice in the playoffs — the 2012 and 2016 AFC Divisional Round — and the Patriots won by at least 13 points each time.
Key stats to know
Drake Maye put together an MVP-caliber regular season. He led the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, EPA/dropback, QBR and passer rating.
He did not have his best game against the Chargers, though. He completed 17 of 29 pass attempts for 269 yards with one touchdown and two turnovers (one interception, one fumble). He also led the team with 60 rushing yards.
Maye’s 86.6 passer rating against the Chargers was his third-worst of the season. He has plenty of room for improvement this Sunday.
The Patriots were the second-highest scoring team in the regular season at 28.8 points per game, but they scored only 16 in the Wild Card Round versus a very strong Chargers defense. They will face an even tougher challenge next Sunday against the Texans, who might have the league’s best defense.
That unit ranked No. 1 in yards allowed per game, No. 1 in EPA/play, No. 2 in points allowed per game, No. 6 in opponent’s time to throw, No. 8 in sack percentage and No. 3 in opponent completion percentage during the regular season.
The Texans played eight games against playoff teams in the regular season and allowed fewer than 20 points in six of them. The Patriots offense will have a slim margin for error Sunday.
Patriots’ keys to victory
Continue to generate consistent pass rush
Due to multiple injuries, the Chargers had one of the league’s worst offensive lines this season, and it showed Sunday night: They allowed six sacks, 16 QB pressures and 11 QB hits. The Patriots blitzed throughout the second half and got to Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert consistently.
Can they repeat that pass rush performance against the Texans? Sacking Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud isn’t super easy. He’s mobile enough to escape the pocket, and the Texans tied for the sixth-fewest sacks allowed in the regular season.
But Houston’s o-line does allow pressure. The Texans had the 22nd-ranked pass block grade from Pro Football Focus, and ESPN ranked Houston 30th out of 32 teams in pass block win rate.
The Patriots will need another dominant game from Milton Williams and the entire front seven.
Protect the football
The Patriots lost the turnover battle 2-1 against the Chargers and still won by 13 points. They probably won’t be as fortunate if that happens again.
Drake Maye threw an interception inside his own 20-yard line (the pass was tipped, to be fair) and lost a fumble when he should have just taken a sack. He needs to be smarter with the football, because every point is going to be valuable against an elite Texans defense.
Houston forced the third-most turnovers with 29 in the regular season and tied for the third-most interceptions with 19.
Texans’ keys to victory
Take advantage of left side of Pats o-line
Rookie left tackle Will Campbell and rookie left guard Jared Wilson both struggled throughout the Chargers game. Campbell got beat on the play where Maye was strip-sacked and lost the ball.
The Texans tied for the sixth-most sacks during the regular season with 47 and ranked No. 2 in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush grades. Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson (12 sacks) are two of the best pass rushers the Patriots will face all season.
C.J. Stroud has to carry Texans offense
Stroud is 3-0 with five touchdown passes and two interceptions in his AFC Wild Card Round career. But in the Divisional Round, he is 0-2 with zero touchdowns.
The Texans averaged the second-fewest rushing yards per game among the 14 playoff teams, and the Patriots allowed only 30 rushing yards to running backs against the Chargers.
If the Patriots make the Texans one-dimensional on offense, does Stroud have the ability to put the team on his back and carry it to victory? It remains to be seen.
Prediction
David Butler II-Imagn Images
David Butler II-Imagn Images Drake Maye tallied 334 total yards in the AFC Wild Card Round.
Patriots-Chargers was a low-scoring affair, and we should expected a similar result Sunday in Foxboro. The difference is the Texans are a healthier team and pose more of a threat on offense.
Maye didn’t have a great start to the Chargers game, but he found his groove in the second half when he completed 11 of 14 pass attempts for 179 yards with one touchdown and a 142 passer rating. If that Maye shows up Sunday, the Patriots will be in good shape.
Getting Milton Williams, Robert Spillane and Harold Landry III back from injury over the last two weeks has been a massive boost for the Patriots defense. This unit should be able to keep the Texans under 20 points and lessen the burden on Maye’s shoulders.
