Never in the power rankings era has the unexpected been so – expected – in MIAA girls hockey.
The buzz term among coaches has been “wide open” when talking about both the Div. 1 and Div. 2 state title races. That shone brightest in the last week of the regular season, provoking one long-tenured head coach to reach out amid the height of the madness.
“This is going to be a wild (state) tournament,” the text read. “Seeding is not gonna matter. It’s gonna be about matchups.”
The top four seeds have plenty to feel confident about, but the path a Div. 1 Final Four feels unpredictable.
No. 1 Notre Dame Academy of Hingham (13-2-3) has one of the state’s top goalies and defenses. Goals have been hard to come by sometimes, though, and both No. 8 Bishop Stang (15-4-1) and No. 9 HPNA (14-2-4) have showcased equally stingy defenses that could set up a down-to-the-wire finish in a potential quarterfinal matchup. Bishop Stang also returns several players who upset the Cougars last year in a run to its first state final.
No. 16 Belmont (11-6-3) and No. 17 Shrewsbury (10-7-3) navigated two of the state’s tougher leagues and are dangerous sleepers. No. 24 Braintree (9-7-4) also hung with top teams more this year than its seeding suggests.
Two of the most dangerous scrap-it-out teams duel in the first round for a chance to stun No. 2 St. Mary’s of Lynn (17-3-2) early in the second. The Spartans have a deep attack and their young defense has played composed much of the year, but No. 15 Natick (12-7-3) and No. 18 Winchester (12-8-1) both showed an ability to outplay top teams. A little puck luck could fuel a surprise run.
No. 7 Hingham (15-5-1), which is the reigning state champion, played a stacked schedule and beat three of the five teams it lost to. One of the two it couldn’t is in Div. 2 (Milton), and the other as an overtime loss to NDA. The Harborwomen are a strong candidate to repeat if they can get past a pesky No. 26 Waltham (11-8-1) and a red-hot No. 10 Reading (13-2-5), on a nine-game unbeaten streak.
Few teams have the attacking depth No. 3 Algonquin (20-1) boasts with Div. 1’s second-most goals per game (4.43). A 2-1 win over NDA showed its legitimacy as a title threat. Potentially down the road, though, is the state’s top defense in No. 6 Methuen/Tewksbury (18-0-2), anchored by Dream Team goalie Lydia Barnes and a strong returning cast from last year’s Final Four trip. No team had more ties or tight losses against top-10 teams than No. 14 Malden Catholic (7-11-2), which is far more dangerous than its record. No. 11 Woburn (15-5) has a propensity for big wins, but is on upset watch against a No. 22 Pope Francis (8-8-5) playing its best hockey right now.
Perhaps the most loaded of the four quadrants is No. 4 Bishop Feehan’s (15-7), as all but one team is from the Catholic Central League or MVC/DCL – arguably the state’s two toughest leagues. This is what the Shamrocks prepared for with the state’s fourth-toughest opponent rating, capped by a 13-2 mark down the stretch.
Still, a third matchup potentially looms with No. 13 Arlington Catholic (9-9-2) and its stalwart defense. Even more dangerous is a potential third meeting with No. 5 Archbishop Williams (13-7-1) that’s finally healthy and hit a recent stride. No. 12 Billerica/Chelmsford (13-5-3) already beat Archies, has a dynamic goaltender and a strong top line as a premier sleeper.
Don’t doubt the upset potential of the others, either, especially Div. 1 scoring leader No. 20 Acton-Boxboro (13-5-3), No. 21 Brookline (9-7-4), No. 27 Winthrop (10-4-3) and No. 28 Boston Latin (7-14-1).
The Div. 2 field looks a little more top-heavy, but the title race will be just as thrilling down the stretch.
Westwood (19-1) is rightfully seeded No. 1 as one of the more complete teams. Scoring balance helped it finish the regular season with a top-10 attack in Div. 2, while strong team defense and elite goaltending helped it finish with the top GAA (0.70). It’s already avenged its only regular season loss in the last two years (Hingham), and now hopes to avenge last year’s upset loss in the state semifinals. A potential rematch with reigning state champion No. 9 Medfield (13-8) and goalie Kamryn Perachi will be one to circle in the quarterfinals despite two routs in the regular season — if Medfield can best a tough out in No. 8 Nauset (12-8).
No. 2 Milton (20-1-1) is right on the Wolverines’ heels, featuring arguably the best top line and premier speed down the lineup as a major threat to return to TD Garden – and win this time. But No. 15 Marshfield (8-12) matched up closely with it in the regular-season finale and has upset potential in what would be a rematch from last year’s Final Four. No. 7 Dennis-Yarmouth (12-6-2) or No. 10 Norwell/Scituate/Abington (11-6-1) will also be tough.
No. 3 Duxbury (14-7-1) has more losses than a typical year its contended, but it leads the division in opponent rating by a wide margin. The Dragons have one of the state’s best players in Addy Harrington and the depth around her to make a dangerous bid for a third state title in four years. No. 14 Sandwich (7-13-1) is a stronger threat while No. 6 Auburn (15-3-2) is dangerous, too, but No. 11 Falmouth (14-7) is an upset watch to it first.
It’s been an inspirational run from No. 5 King Philip (19-2-1) thus far, overcoming the tragic passing of head coach Ken Assad and making a legitimate case as a title contender. It leads the state in goals scored and has several notable wins, including one over Duxbury. No. 4 Pembroke (17-3) has the scoring punch to keep up with it in what would be a high-flying quarterfinal while No. 12 Canton (11-7-2), No. 13 Hanover (14-6) and No. 20 Walpole (8-9-2) are all sleepers.
PREDICTIONS
Div. 1
Champion: No. 5 Archbishop Williams
Final Four: No. 2 St. Mary’s (L), No. 5 Archbishop Williams, No. 6 Methuen/Tewksbury, No. 9 HPNA
Top Sleepers: No. 12 Billerica/Chelmsford, No. 14 Malden Catholic
Potential Upset: No. 14 Malden Catholic over No. 3 Algonquin
Best First-Round Matchup: No. 15 Natick vs No. 18 Winchester
Div. 2
Champion: No. 1 Westwood
Final Four: No. 1 Westwood, No. 2 Milton, No. 3 Duxbury, No. 5 King Philip
Top Sleepers: No. 11 Falmouth, No. 12 Canton
Potential Upset: No. 15 Marshfield over No. 2 Milton
Best First Round Matchup: No. 16 Dedham vs No. 17 Martha’s Vineyard
